Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orange, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:30PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:13 AM EST (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 418 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
Friday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 418 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..A gentle to light north breeze will veer to northeast today and tonight. A developing storm system will move east along the gulf coast Wednesday through Thursday, dragging a strong cold front through the waters Thursday night. The storm will then move northeast across the eastern u.s. Friday. Increasingly hazardous marine conditions are expected Thursday along with a band of strong to severe Thunderstorms moving across the waters during the afternoon and evening. Expect strong offshore winds near shore and near gale conditions offshore behind the front on Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, december 17th. 48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orange, FL
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location: 29.13, -80.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 180936
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
435 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Discussion
Dry and mild today through early Wednesday...

Potent storm system will increase rain chances starting Wednesday
night with strong to severe storms possible Thursday...

Very hazardous marine conditions Thursday into Saturday...

today-tonight... Benign early weak weather pattern continues as weak
lobe of high pressure over sela ms drifts east across southern al ga
today before getting absorbed by a larger high to its ne, centered
over the mid atlantic states late tonight. A weak inverted surface
trough which forms from just off the SCA ga coast to well offshore
ecfl will be of nil impact to local wx.

Dry conditions continue with light winds becoming onshore near the
coast by afternoon, abundant sunshine and moderating temps. Near
normal maxes in l70s with mins in the u40s inland north to l50s,
about a category cooler than normal for mid december.

Wednesday-Friday... Active wx pattern thru midweek as a potent 150kt
zonal jet over the east pac plows its way acrs the wrn CONUS and
merges with the SRN jet over the WRN gomex. A hi amp shortwave trof
over the rocky mountains will intensity as a result, with a closed
sfc low expected to dvlp over the NW gomex lwr ms valley Wed night
into thu. Gfs ECMWF models in good agreement wrt the evolution of
this storm system, in both intensity and orientation, with the
attendant mid upr lvl trof bcmg neutral or even slightly negative
tilt as it crosses the gomex Thu night into fri.

Mid lvl closed low dvlps over the deep south by daybreak thu, then
lifts into the mid atlc region by daybreak fri, with the attendant
sfc low in tandem. Meanwhile, a triple point low will form to the se
of the parent low and merge with it Thu night into Fri as the system
lifts up the appalachian range as a potent 990mb low.

On wed, h100-h70 mean wind fields will strengthen out of the S se
from 5-10kts at daybreak to arnd 15-20kts by sunset. Strong moisture
advection will result beginning late in the day with shras bcmg
likely areawide Wed night with the passage of a warm front. Slgt chc
of tsras as well, but instability will be limited as central fl
gains the warm sector.

On thu, h100-h70 wind fields continue to strengthen as the storm
system deepens, reaching 35-40kts along and north of the i-4
corridor and 45-50kts over the treasure coast lake-o region by late
aftn. Intensifying pre-frontal squall line will form over the
central-eastern gulf through Wed night then work its way acrs the fl
peninsula on thu. While dense cloud cover and rain cooled air will
limit sfc instability, with h85-h70 winds expected to reach 50kt,
there will be a threat of strong severe storms as they move rapidly
across central fl.

Hi res LCL wrf model puts the timing for strongest storms btwn 15z
and 23z Thu along north of the i-4 corridor and btwn 21z thu-04z fri
to the south. The initial cold front will sweep rapidly offshore by
early Fri mrng, followed by a secondary front associated with the hi
amp mid-upper lv trof. Moisture ahead of the second front will be
"wrap around" in nature, but with strong mid lvl omega vorticity and
upr lvl divergence overhead, precip will cont to be widespread thru
daybreak fri, decreasing to a chc of shras thru the day on fri.

Sat-mon... Brisk NW flow will generate cool air advection on Sat that
will keep temps in the l m60s, mins in the l m40s except near 50f
along the immediate treasure coast. Winds diminishing and veering to
ne as high pres builds acrs the region early next week... Temps
slowly modify to climo avgs by Mon aftn.

Aviation Vfr.

Marine Today-tonight... Light northerly winds become ne. Speeds
less than 10kt with seas around 2ft... Any 3ft seas will be confined
out toward 50-60nm offshore.

Wed-wed night... Favorable boating conds initially, but deteriorating
overnight as a storm system intensifies over the deep south.

Sfc bndry lyr winds a light to gentle E SE breeze thru the day, bcmg
a moderate to fresh S SE breeze by daybreak thu. Seas 2-3ft thru the
day, building to 3-4ft overnight. Shras bcmg likely aft sunset.

Thu-fri... Hazardous boating conds as the storm system slowly lifts
up the eastern seaboard. Winds bcmg a fresh to strong S SW breeze by
thu aftn, then W SW on by midday Fri a strong breeze to near gale.

While the dvlpg offshore component will limit total wave heights,
seas will be dominated by short pd wind chop... Building to 4-6ft
nearshore and 6-8ft offshore by Thu aftn, maxing out at 5-7ft
nearshore and 7-10ft offshore by Fri aftn. Widespread shras chc of
tsras Thu thu night, chc of shras fri-fri night.

Sat-sat night... Poor boating conds thru the day as winds gradually
diminish from a moderate to fresh W NW breeze at daybreak to a
gentle to moderate NW breeze by sunset... Seas subsiding to 2-3ft
nearshore and 4-6ft offshore by mid aftn. Improving conds overnight
with winds bcmg a light to gentle N NW breeze... Seas subsiding to
aob 2ft over the shelf waters, 2-3ft in the gulf stream.

Fire weather Minimum rh values below 35 percent expected across
the NW interior (lake seminole orange WRN volusia NW osceola cos.

No critical wind issues expected over the next 24 hours.

Hydrology Coord with wpc on recently issued ero, which places
much of the CWA in mrgl risk area for excessive rainfall on day 3
(12z Thu - 12z fri). Slgt area lies along and just N W of northern
lake and NW volusia counties, which was the southern flank of last
week's heavy rain event. Coupled with lighter seasonal antecedent
rainfall farther south and east, the risk for urban poor drainage
flooding will be progressively higher the farther north and west one
heads within our cwa. Areal average QPF for this storm event looks
to be between 1.5" and 3.0", with localized higher amounts (which
frequently reach 2 to sometimes 3x basin averages).

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 69 51 71 62 0 0 10 70
mco 72 51 74 62 0 0 10 70
mlb 71 54 74 66 0 0 10 70
vrb 71 54 75 66 0 0 10 60
lee 72 48 73 62 0 0 10 70
sfb 73 50 75 62 0 0 10 70
orl 73 51 74 62 0 0 10 70
fpr 73 54 75 67 0 0 10 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Cristaldi
long term... .Bragaw
hydrology fire weather... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 39 mi88 min W 1.9 46°F 1020 hPa46°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 53 mi49 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 66°F1020 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 53 mi73 min W 8 G 8.9 49°F 60°F1018.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL5 mi20 minWSW 38.00 miShallow Fog47°F46°F100%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from EVB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------W5W5W5NW5NW3NW3CalmE7NE7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago----------------W3N4N4NW4NW4NW6W7W7SW7W9W6CalmCalmCalmCalmW5
2 days ago----------------SW4SW5W7W7W8W8W8W10W8W7W9SW7SW3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida (2)
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Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
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Tue -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:10 AM EST     6.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EST     3.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:13 PM EST     6.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:11 PM EST     2.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.85.66.26.56.45.84.94.13.53.33.53.94.65.35.86.165.44.53.632.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside), Florida (2)
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Ponce de Leon Inlet (inside)
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Tue -- 02:44 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:47 AM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:08 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.72.12.32.32.11.71.30.90.60.50.71.11.62.12.32.32.11.71.20.70.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.