Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Golden Meadow, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday May 24, 2018 8:37 PM CDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:25PMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 335 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 335 Pm Cdt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..A surface low currently along the yucatan coast in the far western caribbean sea is likely to move into the lower gulf of mexico by this weekend. This low should affect the north central gulf region late this weekend into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Golden Meadow, LA
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location: 29.13, -90.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 250129
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
829 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018

Sounding discussion
Routine flight terminated near the north end of the twin spans on
interstate 10 at a height of 111,600 feet or 21.1 miles above the
surface.

The airmass has moistened considerably with a precipitable water
value of 1.95 inches. That's at about the 95th percentile for this
time of year and about 150 percent of normal. Sounding showed a
cape in excess of 1700 j kg with a lifted index of -5. Lapse rates
are around 6c km. Freezing level at 13,500 feet, with the -20c
level near 25,200 feet.

Very little shear noted on the sounding, just a few knots, with
storm motions generally less than 5 knots. Did not have any winds
stronger than 15 knots until the balloon reached 200 mb. Maximum
wind of 28 knots was noted at 48,000 feet. 35

Prev discussion issued 514 pm cdt Thu may 24 2018
discussion... Convection had far greater coverage today seabreeze
than the last few days finally. Seabreeze lakebreeze initiated
quickly and then most everything become dominated by outflow and
colliding boundaries. Due to the greater coverage highs were
definitely impacted with most places only in the 80s.

The ridge over the CONUS just east of the ms will continue to break
down as a trough works across the entire ms valley. With that and
increasing moisture convection will have very little difficulty
developing again tomorrow. Much like today the seabreeze lakebreeze
should initiate somewhat early and then convection will once again
be dictated by outflow and colliding boundaries. Overall expect most
of the area to at least see some rain or be fairly close to seeing
rain and while that may be the case at any given point not expecting
much more than scattered coverage.

Saturday could be a repeat of Friday with possibly even slightly
greater coverage of rain. Once again convection will be driven
diurnally as our tropical system we are watching may already be or
just starting to take shape in the southern gulf.

Now as we look into Sunday and the first half of next week, some
good news, some bad news. First the bad news models have started
coming in-line and are indicating a better chance of seeing some
significant impacts across portions of the area. Good news the
models have started to come in-line and are increasing the
confidence of where impacts could be.

Over the last 12-24 hours the models have started to converge a
little and now indicate a track more towards the north-central la
with 90l. They continue to slow the system as it gets trapped in a
very weak steering pattern Sunday through Tuesday. Forecast has it
basically just heading north slowly along a slight weakness over the
lower ms valley and tn valley left over by the departing northern
stream trough. Latest thinking is that 90l will eventually become a
tropical cyclone this weekend and slowly approach the coast of
sela ms al sometime Monday.

One other concerning thing is now conditions could improve enough to
allow for slightly more strengthening then previously thought. Come
late Saturday and through Sunday night the shear will weaken and
models are indicating that there could be a favorable outflow
channel to the north of the system. In addition the water is fairly
warm across the central and north-central gulf which is where this
system will track. Last drier air is not showing up as much in the
wv as yesterday and the system could be insulated from dry air. With
that we can not rule out a strong TS possibly even approaching a low
end hurricane approaching the coast. This would increase the impacts
from wind and tides but we still still feel that heavy flooding rain
is the greatest concern especially over coastal ms.

As for the rain this is still tricky as we appear to be in the
gradient. Overall across sela and southern coastal ms we could see
rain range from just over an inch in the west to over 8 inches and
possibly a good bit more in the east. Even though confidence has
increased in the forecast we would like to not get too detailed at
this time on the where the cut off would be for heavy possibly flash
flooding rain and the typical daytime thunderstorms. That said we
feel the best location for heavy rain will be east of i-55 with a
focus likely over coastal ms where over 10 inches is not out of the
question. Widespread 4-8 is expected with some locations possibly
seeing more than double that when every thing is said and done (yes
more than 16 inches is possible if the system moves as slow as
expected and over coastal ms sela).

Obviously with a possible stronger storm the impact from winds and
tides surge is higher especially near the coast of ms and sela east
of the ms river. With the current forecast approaching the ms coast
and approaching slowly water will pile up along the coast of sela
east of the ms river along with lake p and across coastal ms. At
this time we are forecasting a slightly conservative (due to
uncertainty) 1-3 feet of surge in the lake and 2-4 across coastal ms
and the the east facing coasts of sela. Other issue to keep an eye
on surge wise would be inside barataria bay where strong persistent
winds out of the west could pile up water on the west side of
plaquemines parish. Winds would have the greatest impact right along
the coast and likely decrease pretty quickly inland and especially
to the northwest of the system.

Biggest concern with these impacts is track. Current track is not
the greatest news for our area. A slight jog to the west possibly
over sela with a similar slow forward motion would increase pretty
much all of the impacts for a good portion of the CWA with flooding
rain a significant issue. A jog to the east staying towards al will
lower most of the impact's for pretty much all of the CWA except
coastal ms. A track even further east (not out of the question since
we still dont even have a developed system yet) would pretty much
take all of the impacts out of our area.

We do want to point out that nothing has even developed yet and
models will struggle and swing significantly until there is
something developed. So continue to follow the forecast as this
evolves this holiday weekend.

If this system develops into a tropical cyclone (which we
think it eventually will) and attain tropical storms status it would
be named alberto. Hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate
tomorrow if there is something to investigate. In addition we will
begin 6 hourly balloon launches at 18z tomorrow. Cab
marine... Winds are still on the lighter side and look to be
through Friday night and possibly into Saturday with our system
finally moving through the southern gulf. Models have come into
agreement with a likely tropical cyclone moving into the north-
central gulf late this weekend early next week. Winds will begin to
respond Sunday out of the northwest and there is a good chance that
gale conditions could begin to develop then but at that time we are
anticipating a tropical depression if not tropical storm and with
that warnings will likely be in place. If the system GOES further
east then we would likely have small craft advisories in place.

Conditions may not really improve until late Tuesday or more so
Wednesday as the system will be very slow to move. Cab
aviation... Convection across the forecast area has really
diminished thanks to the outflow boundaries that moved through the
region. The one area with activity not too far away is mcb and
around pql as well. Expect MVFR toVFR conditions to prevail
through the overnight hours. There could be some early morning
patchy fog that should quick dissipate after sunrise. ExpectVFR
conditions and afternoon showers to prevail once again for
Wednesday. 13 mh
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 69 85 68 86 50 50 30 60
btr 72 88 71 88 40 60 30 60
asd 71 89 71 86 30 60 40 70
msy 74 88 74 87 20 70 30 60
gpt 73 87 73 85 30 60 50 70
pql 70 86 70 85 30 60 50 70

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KXPY 12 mi43 min SSE 7 82°F 75°F
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 18 mi98 min E 8 G 8.9
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 26 mi50 min S 4.1 G 7 82°F 85°F1016.5 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 27 mi89 min S 7 G 8.9 80°F 2 ft1017.1 hPa
KDLP 46 mi43 min S 8 84°F 75°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 46 mi56 min Calm G 1 74°F 87°F1016.6 hPa
KMDJ 47 mi43 min SSE 7 81°F 73°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Fourchon, LA12 mi63 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds82°F75°F79%1016.6 hPa
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA23 mi63 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F71°F86%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE9SE8SE8SE6SE6SE7SE6SE6SE3E4E6E6E8E9E12
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1 day agoSE8SE5SE4SE6SE7SE7SE6SE5SE6SE4SE45SE55
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2 days agoSE7SE6SE5SE5SE6S5S6S3CalmCalmSE4E5SE356SE6SE8E9SE9SE9SE11SE8SE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Islands, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Pelican Islands
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Thu -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 AM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Timbalier Island, Timbalier Bay, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Timbalier Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:18 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.40.40.50.50.60.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.