Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:02 PM   Moonset 8:08 AM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 751 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
Tonight - East winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 751 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis - High pressure with a tight pressure gradient continues over the E gulf waters with winds around 20 kts and seas 4-7 ft to produce hazardous small craft advisory conditions through the evening surge and tonight. Brief decrease in easterly winds Sunday morning before another afternoon into evening increase with periods of scec/sca likely into early next week. High pressure remains in the region as winds slightly decrease into mid week with the afternoon sea breeze returning.

FXUS62 KTBW 272345 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 745 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Dry warm but rather typical late April pattern continues. High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through Monday with large scale subsidence creating generally partly cloudy skies and temperatures several degrees above normal each day. High broken cloudiness over the area this evening and overnight will move east of the state on Sunday. Gradient remains rather tight, and although winds will decrease to around 10 MPH by midnight, gusty east winds will redevelop on Sunday.

A weak progressive U/L trough will push across the forecast area on Tuesday with a slight chance of a shower, mainly over the interior. High pressure surface and aloft will build back over the area on Wednesday and will persist through the end of the week, with highs around 90 away from the coast each day.

DISCUSSION
Persistent springtime upper ridging continues to stretch from the N Carib, over the FL Peninsula and up into the Eastern Seaboard with subsidence aloft to keep the warm and mainly dry conditions in place through the weekend. At lower levels breezy easterly flow continues around the strong high pressure center in the W Atlantic as a result of the tight pressure gradient. Have seen some light low topped sprinkles on radar in this flow as well but don't expect much in the way of measurable rain and will keep blind 10 PoPs mainly interior areas.

The upper ridge will finally get suppressed early-mid-week as a shortwave moves through the Deep South. Surface high pressure in the W Atlantic weakens but will continue to dominate at the low levels keeping the area warm and dry while the sea breeze returns at least to coastal areas. Some models hinting at isolated interior seabreeze showers Tuesday afternoon but will hold less than 20 PoPs for now in those areas.

By late week, ridging becomes reestablished aloft to keep the warm/dry sensible wx conditions in place.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with SCT-BKN250 tonight, becoming SCT040-050 SCT250 at all terminals on Sunday.
Breezy east winds will continue.

MARINE
High pressure with a tight pressure gradient continues over the E Gulf waters with winds around 20 kts and seas 4-7 ft to produce hazardous SCA conditions through the evening surge and tonight.
Brief decrease in E winds Sun morning before another afternoon/evening increase with periods of SCEC/SCA likely into early next week.
High pressure remains in the region as winds slightly decrease into mid week with the afternoon sea breeze returning.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and dry springtime high pressure remains in the region with daily minimum RH values at or just below critical levels each afternoon. Easterly winds become occasionally gusty each afternoon into evening with high dispersions in some areas. Even though fuels remain just moist enough to preclude red flag warnings, an elevated fire weather risk remains with these conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 68 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 87 66 88 / 0 10 0 0 GIF 66 85 64 87 / 0 10 0 0 SRQ 68 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 61 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 86 70 85 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Withlacoochee River entrance
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Sat -- 04:58 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:39 AM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:54 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Cedar Key
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Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:17 AM EDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:18 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cedar Key, Way Key, Florida, Tide feet

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