Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Otter Creek, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:35PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:36 PM EST (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 850 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots then becoming east around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots overnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots in the late evening and overnight. Seas building to 8 to 12 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds around 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 feet. Bay and inland waters very rough. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to around 20 knots after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters a light to moderate chop.
Saturday night..North winds around 10 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 850 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis.. Light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday, with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move into the region Wednesday night and Thursday bringing showers and Thunderstorms and overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast to increase to near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas building to around 12 to 18 feet. Winds will start to diminish Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be much slower to subside.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Otter Creek, FL
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location: 29.2, -82.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 190128
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
828 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Significant multifaceted weather event expected
Wednesday night through Friday...

Update
Weather conditions will remain quiet and seasonably cool
across west-central and southwest florida for the overnight
period. Beginning to see the influx of higher level
moisture clouds ahead of our next rapidly evolving system
that is currently digging through the southern plains.

Despite continued increasing and lowering higher mid level
clouds, the weather will stay on the benign side through
Wednesday morning and even into the early afternoon.

Thereafter, conditions begin to go downhill as the leading
edge of this next very dynamic storm system begins to reach
the eastern gulf florida west coast. Expect the first
showers to start breaking out from tampa bay area southward
along the suncoast during the later afternoon early evening
hours. These showers will likely be on the lighter side, as
more potent showers thunderstorm activity should be holding
off until the overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday
morning.

The potential for a multifaceted weather event is quickly
increasing for Wednesday night through Friday over all of
west-central and southwest florida. We are still talking
about something that is over a day away, so without getting
into nitty-gritty details, lets go over our current
thinking for each aspect of this system for west-central and
southwest florida.

1) heavy rainfall:
heavy rainfall looks almost certain. The system evolving
into the deep south gulf of mexico is quite dynamic with
several efficient lifting mechanisms over a broad length of
time to support a healthy rainfall event for all areas. The
depth and structure of the trough digging over the region is
captured in the naefs mean geopotential heights fields which
show values near or outside of the climatological record for
this time of year for all levels between 1000mb and 500mb.

Current thinking is a widespread 2-3" rainfall potential,
with localized higher amounts owing to stronger or more
persistent convective complexes. This type of widespread
rainfall is going to result in some localized flooding, and
flood watches may become necessary later tonight or during
the day Wednesday for parts of the area... Especially given
the heavy rainfall amounts that occurred in spots with the
previous system. The widespread nature of the excessive
rainfall amounts means we will need to keep a close eye on
rivers and streams in the post-event days. Probabilistic
river forecasts using the range of possible amounts are
suggesting at least minor riverine flooding issues for a few
local rivers by Friday into the upcoming weekend.

2) severe storms:
given the dynamics of the evolving trough, we are going to
have plenty of thunderstorms across the region Wednesday
night through Thursday, and shear parameters are certainly
plenty strong enough to support organized convection. The
big question with this event will be low level surface based
instability. There is still quite a range of solutions in
the model ensembles about where... And how far north the best
surface instability will get. There are some indications
that the amount of preceding rainfall before the main
thunderstorm potential will really hinder the northward
expansion of low level instability and possibly keep the
storms elevated up over the tampa bay area i-4 corridor.

Better chances for surface based storms will exist the
further south one goes. This type of setup can have storms
that look really impressive on radar, but simply fail to get
the wind or tornadic potential to the surface due to the
elevated nature of the convection and inverted low level
thermal profiles. However, given the atmospheric potential
in terms of lift and shear, low level mesoscale analysis of
exactly where the surface based convection threat exists
will require constant monitored all the way up to and
through the event. The NWS in ruskin and the storm
prediction center will be closely monitoring model trends
to forecast the most likely areas to receive surface based
thunderstorm activity and the resulting severe threat later
Wednesday night and especially during the daylight hours of
Thursday.

3) coastal flooding beach erosion:
strong southerly winds ahead of this system will push water
northward along the florida west coast, with mainly just
some limited coastal impacts. However, in the wake of the
cold front later Thursday night and through at least Friday
evening, strong NW W winds are expected to develop. These
winds will likely approach or eclipse gale force for much of
Friday. Of note, the naefs v-component 1000mb wind fields
during Friday over the eastern gulf are at the edge of or
exceeding the climatological record in terms of speed. This
is a good proxy for the wind potential at the surface given
the steep low level lapse rates and efficient mixing that
will be in place within the post-frontal environment over
the eastern gulf. In addition to the speed, the fetch of
winds across the gulf will be quite long, extending at least
back to the ms delta longitude. The persistent strong
onshore winds are shown by all of the probabilistic extra-
tropical storm surge models to present a threat for minor
coastal flooding, especially at the times of high tide. In
addition, these models do not include the impacts of wave
run- up... Which may be another significant factor. The long
and persistent fetch of wind waves into the florida west
coast will likely result in some additional water rises and
beach erosion. Water over immediate coastal roads may become
a problem with the wave run-up. The overall setup does not
support significant coastal flooding, such as would be seen
with tropical cyclones, but even minor flooding can
certainly cause its own set of issues related to
transportation near the coast and erosion damage. With all
this wave action we will also develop a very high threat for
dangerous frequent rip currents. We have already begun to
brief the emergency management community on the coastal
hazard threat Friday into Friday night, and the media may
want to highlight this potential for anyone planning beach
or boating plans early this weekend. The long fetch across
the gulf means waves will be slow to diminish even after the
winds begin to slacken Friday night into Saturday.

Aviation (19 00z through 20 06z)...

vfr conditions expected to prevail through the overnight.

A brief period of patchy shallow ground fog possible around
dawn for mainly lal and pgd, but potential low enough to
leave mention out of current tafs.VFR ceilings developing
from southwest to northeast gradually lowering to MVFR after
18-21z. First showers possible after 21z. Showers becoming
more numerous Wednesday night with widespread MVFR ifr cigs
after midnight. East to southeast winds will increase to
between 6 and 10 knots Wednesday morning and shift to
southeast to south in the afternoon at around 10 knots.

Prev discussion issued 300 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
discussion (tonight - next Tuesday)...

active weather pattern next few days with potential for severe
thunderstorms and flooding followed by gale force winds, very
rough seas and possible coastal flooding. The next deep mid upper
level trough will be moving across the eastern u.S. During the
second half of the week with surface low pressure developing over
the southern plains then moving east and northeast and eventually
into the mid-atlantic and northeast states late in the week.

For tonight the fair dry weather will continue with relatively cool
temperatures dipping into the upper 30s far north to mid 50s south.

On Wednesday moisture will begin to spread northeast across the
region ahead of a warm front associated with the developing system
to our west. Skies will become mostly cloudy as this moisture
advances north with a few showers returning during the mid to late
afternoon to areas from about tampa bay southward. Wednesday night
and Thursday the surface low will move across the lower mississippi
valley with the warm front shifting north of the area. Strong low
level winds will continue to bring deep moisture into the area with
decent instability likely to evolve ahead of a strong cold front.

It still appears that strong shear will overspread the area with
organized severe convection possible, especially if buoyancy
returns. The timing of the strongest storms varies some between
the models with latest analysis indicating late morning and
afternoon Thursday, but will have to see how things evolve. Either
way widespread rainfall some of which could be heavy will occur
across the florida peninsula with localized flooding becoming
possible, especially across parts of the nature coast that saw
heavy rain last week.

Breezy south to southwest winds Thursday will shift to westerly
behind the cold front and become rather windy late Thursday night
and Friday. The cold air advection behind the cold front across the
relatively warm gulf waters will keep clouds and some showers moving
across the region through Friday. Over the weekend high pressure
will build into the area and then move across the southeast states
early next week with seasonable temperatures and drier air
returning.

Marine...

light winds and seas will remain over the waters through Wednesday,
with no headlines expected. The next complex storm system will move
into the region Wednesday night and Thursday bringing showers and
thunderstorms and overall hazardous conditions. Winds are forecast
to increase to near gale force Thursday night into Friday, with seas
building to around 12 to 18 feet. Winds will start to diminish
Saturday, and will fall even more for Sunday, but waves will be much
slower to subside.

Fire weather...

no fire weather hazards are expected for the next few days as
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. On
Thursday breezy southerly winds will setup and then shift to
westerly and become rather windy on Friday. Some patchy fog will be
possible over inland areas during the late night and early morning
hours tonight into Wednesday morning, but widespread coverage is not
anticipated.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 51 72 62 72 0 40 80 100
fmy 55 75 65 77 0 40 50 100
gif 49 74 62 74 0 20 70 100
srq 54 71 64 72 0 50 70 100
bkv 46 73 61 73 0 20 80 100
spg 54 72 63 72 0 40 80 100

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Update aviation... Mroczka
previous discussion... Close


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 20 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 1019.7 hPa (+0.7)52°F
ARPF1 - APK - Aripeka, FL 53 mi103 min Calm G 1 1019.3 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 65 mi37 min E 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.3)50°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crystal River Airport, FL23 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair50°F46°F88%1019.3 hPa
Ocala International Airport - Jim Taylor Field, FL23 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair50°F46°F89%1020 hPa

Wind History from CGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmW3W8W4W3CalmCalmCalm--Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4W7W7W7W5W5W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W7W4W9W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida
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Withlacoochee River entrance
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Tue -- 02:52 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:15 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:15 PM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.71.20.70.40.20.30.71.31.92.42.52.42.11.71.31.111.11.62.12.62.92.8

Tide / Current Tables for Florida Power, Florida
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Florida Power
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Tue -- 02:52 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:50 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:44 AM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.81.20.60.30.20.511.72.42.82.92.72.31.71.310.91.31.92.53.13.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.