Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:38PM Monday December 10, 2018 6:43 PM EST (23:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:59AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 225 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small crafts should exercise caution through tonight...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet after midnight. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday and Friday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to 30 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet building to 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of rain.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 225 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis.. Cautionary conditions will persist across coastal waters tonight. Conditions will calm Tuesday and Wednesday before windy and choppy conditions resume on Thursday. Advisory level conditions will be possible on Friday and Saturday, as another storm system approaches the region bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms with it.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 102321
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
621 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Aviation
[through 00z Wednesday]
MVFR ceilings will prevail for the overnight hours before the
cloud deck scatters out around sunrise. Ceilings could lower to
ifr at dhn and aby before clearing.

Prev discussion [316 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
Cloudy, cool, and dry conditions will persist through the period.

The persistent low level inversion (clearly evident on the 12z tae
raob) will keep mostly cloudy conditions in place through the
period, mitigating cooling tonight. As a result, temperatures will
only fall a few degrees into the upper 30s for lows.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
A weak surface trough will swing through the region early Tuesday,
bringing a slight chance for a shower or two prior to conditions
clearing. Quiet weather will persist through the remainder of the
period as high pressure builds in over the region. Overnight lows on
Tuesday will fall below freezing across much of the area away from
the immediate coast. Expect temperatures to moderate from Wednesday
onward, with highs generally in the low 60s and lows in the low
40s.

Long term [Thursday through Monday]
The story of the long term will be the next storm system that is
poised to impact the region Thursday night into Friday. The 12z
operational model runs are much more in line than previous guidance
regarding timing. Given that this system is currently a few days
out, monitoring subsequent model runs is necessary prior to
increasing confidence in a specific timeframe of the onset of
showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is in agreement that this will
be a progressive system, thus mitigating the flooding risk across
the region. Nonetheless, heavy rainfall will be a threat, along with
the chance for a few stronger thunderstorms. Quiet weather will
resume in time for the weekend.

Marine
Cautionary conditions will persist across coastal waters tonight.

Conditions will calm Tuesday and Wednesday before windy and choppy
conditions resume on Thursday. Advisory level conditions will be
possible on Friday and Saturday, as another storm system approaches
the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms with it.

Fire weather
Aside from low afternoon dispersions the next few days, there are no
fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Little rainfall is expected through Wednesday night and this will
allow the area to dry out some and most area rivers to become steady
or begin to slowly fall. The next system will move through the
region late Thursday into Friday and will quickly move out.

The withlacoochee, ochlockonee, apalachicola, chipola, and aucilla,
and are all in flood and either hold steady over the next few days
or begin a slow fall. The choctawhatchee and suwanee are expected to
enter flood over the next few days.

For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http: water.Weather.Gov ahps2 index.Php?wfo=tae.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 39 57 31 61 41 0 0 0 0 0
panama city 39 56 38 61 49 0 0 0 0 10
dothan 35 53 32 58 42 10 0 0 0 0
albany 38 55 31 57 40 20 0 0 0 0
valdosta 40 56 33 60 40 10 0 0 0 0
cross city 39 58 33 62 42 10 0 0 0 0
apalachicola 40 58 39 60 50 0 0 0 0 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until midnight est 11 pm cst tonight for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Pullin
long term... Pullin
aviation... Wool
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Lf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi43 min NNW 4.1 G 8 48°F 1021 hPa (+0.8)41°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi43 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 49°F 1021 hPa (+0.8)40°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi43 min NNW 16 G 19 47°F 1021.4 hPa (+1.0)42°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi4.8 hrsN 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast47°F38°F70%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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W9W9W8W7NW11W8NW6NW9NW6NW13NW7W9NW8NW9NW7NW8NW6N9N10NW8
1 day agoSE4SE5SE3CalmCalmE7NE7E4E6E5E8E6E4E5SE3S13
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2 days agoNE6N6NE5NE3NE3N3NE3NE4E3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE3NE4NE4NE4NE4NE5E6E4E4E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:46 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:59 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:24 PM EST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.8332.72.11.40.70.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.51.322.52.72.62.21.71.41.11.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fishermans Rest, Florida
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Fishermans Rest
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:28 AM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:05 PM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:30 PM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.7332.72.21.50.80.2-0.2-0.3-0.10.51.222.52.82.62.31.81.31.11.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.