Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horseshoe Beach, FL
May 18, 2024 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:10 PM Moonset 2:51 AM |
GMZ775 Expires:202405190445;;445018 Fzus52 Ktae 182135 Aab Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida - .updated national weather service tallahassee fl 535 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-190445- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 535 pm edt Sat may 18 2024 /435 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024/
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt /midnight cdt/ Sunday - .
Tonight - South to southwest winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots this evening, with occasional gusts up to 35 knots, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots late. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for florida - .updated national weather service tallahassee fl 535 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-190445- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 535 pm edt Sat may 18 2024 /435 pm cdt Sat may 18 2024/
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 535 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - In the wake of strong Thunderstorms earlier today, southerly wake low winds will develop and last for a few hours this evening, bringing potential for a brief bout of gale-force wind gusts. A weak front will slowly move across the waters on Sunday, with gentle to possibly moderate westerly breezes and a renewed chance of chance of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure will setup anchor northeast of the coastal waters by Monday and remain there through at least midweek.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 181959 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 359 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
In the big picture, we are watching an upper low over northeast Mississippi, and a positively tilted upper trough trailing back across Louisiana. Over the next 24 hours, these features will move east.
For now, the active jet stream equatorward of the positive tilt trough has been fanning and organizing our convection today. The convection has become outflow-driven and is moving into a region with less impressive upper level support. Basically, our most recent round of severe storms and flash flooding will continue to diminish as we head into the evening.
On Sunday, colder air aloft within the passing upper trough will steepen low-mid level lapse rates. This will contribute to afternoon shower and thunderstorm development, with some of the better coverage coming under the coldest air aloft in our Georgia counties, and then where we get seabreeze convergence over our Florida counties. With cold air aloft and 500 mb temperatures as low as -11C to -12C, small hail will be a stronger possibility. Steep lapse rates and unidirectional speed shear will support gusty outflow winds.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Additional shortwave energy rotates through the northwest flow aloft on Monday, and with PWATs around 1.2 inches and added convergence from the seabreeze, some afternoon showers possible invof the I-10 corridor (especially the eastern FL Big Bend)
but do not expect thunder.
Deep layer ridging builds in thereafter through Wednesday with low to mid-level northeast flow and a dry air mass.
With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm from the low-mid 80s on Monday to the upper 80s-lower 90s Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid-level southerly flow getting underway. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm with the seabreeze on Thursday. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is on Friday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Thunderstorms have passed all of the terminals, though we still have some trailing stratiform rain for a couple more hours at TLH and VLD. With subsidence in the rain-cooled air, we will not see much fair weather cumulus development for the rest of this afternoon.
Overnight, the moist low-level air mass will support development of stratus and strato-cumulus clouds with mostly IFR ceilings.
These will continue until 2-3 hours after sunrise, then begin to lift with daytime heating later Sunday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the waters through tonight with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts.
Meanwhile, a weak front will stall across the waters through Sunday, with renewed chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will setup anchor northeast of the coastal waters by Monday and remain there through at least midweek.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
A weak cold front will pass the districts late tonight, bringing a turn to westerly breezes and a somewhat drier air mass. A few afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon. Then high pressure will bridge in from the northeast on Sunday night, bringing a turn to northeast breezes on Monday along with a little more drying of the air mas. A deeply mixed layer on Tuesday afternoon will be the main contributor to high dispersion values over inland districts. This could lead to well-developed vertical smoke columns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
The highest rainfall amounts have occurred from Geneva County to invof the I-10 corridor in the FL counties with radar estimated in the 3-6 inch, and another bullseye of 6-8 inches near southern Jefferson County. Much of the remainder of Southeast AL & Southwest GA (outside of the southern tier of counties) is in the 2-4 inch range.
The Flash Flood Watch is gradually being cancelled from northwest to southeast as the heavier rainfall abates late Saturday afternoon.
Additional rainfall of between a half of an inch and one inch is expected from the I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend through Sunday.
The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta (Skipper Bridge Road) and Quitman, Ochlockonee River at Concord, and Saint Marks River at Newport are all in minor flood, with the Saint Marks expected to crest just below moderate by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, some points along the Choctawhatchee, Chipola, Flint, and Aucilla Rivers are in -or- will reach action stage. The Shoal River at Mossy Head is also headed toward action stage as of late Saturday afternoon. Addt'l river flooding is possible as water continues to drain into the aforementioned basins.
Beyond Sunday, several days of dry weather is expected.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 79 68 87 68 / 80 40 40 0 Panama City 77 70 85 69 / 90 30 10 0 Dothan 75 67 84 66 / 100 20 20 0 Albany 75 67 84 65 / 90 30 50 0 Valdosta 79 68 86 67 / 80 50 40 10 Cross City 86 69 86 67 / 50 70 60 10 Apalachicola 79 71 84 70 / 80 40 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>018-026-027-112-114-115-118-127.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ147-157>159.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 359 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
In the big picture, we are watching an upper low over northeast Mississippi, and a positively tilted upper trough trailing back across Louisiana. Over the next 24 hours, these features will move east.
For now, the active jet stream equatorward of the positive tilt trough has been fanning and organizing our convection today. The convection has become outflow-driven and is moving into a region with less impressive upper level support. Basically, our most recent round of severe storms and flash flooding will continue to diminish as we head into the evening.
On Sunday, colder air aloft within the passing upper trough will steepen low-mid level lapse rates. This will contribute to afternoon shower and thunderstorm development, with some of the better coverage coming under the coldest air aloft in our Georgia counties, and then where we get seabreeze convergence over our Florida counties. With cold air aloft and 500 mb temperatures as low as -11C to -12C, small hail will be a stronger possibility. Steep lapse rates and unidirectional speed shear will support gusty outflow winds.
SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Additional shortwave energy rotates through the northwest flow aloft on Monday, and with PWATs around 1.2 inches and added convergence from the seabreeze, some afternoon showers possible invof the I-10 corridor (especially the eastern FL Big Bend)
but do not expect thunder.
Deep layer ridging builds in thereafter through Wednesday with low to mid-level northeast flow and a dry air mass.
With rising heights aloft, highs gradually warm from the low-mid 80s on Monday to the upper 80s-lower 90s Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Deep layer ridging moves southeast of the region with low to mid-level southerly flow getting underway. Cannot rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm with the seabreeze on Thursday. Otherwise, the better chance of a shower/t-storm is on Friday with the approach of a shortwave aloft. Highs generally remaining in the upper 80s-lower 90s through the period.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Thunderstorms have passed all of the terminals, though we still have some trailing stratiform rain for a couple more hours at TLH and VLD. With subsidence in the rain-cooled air, we will not see much fair weather cumulus development for the rest of this afternoon.
Overnight, the moist low-level air mass will support development of stratus and strato-cumulus clouds with mostly IFR ceilings.
These will continue until 2-3 hours after sunrise, then begin to lift with daytime heating later Sunday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the waters through tonight with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts.
Meanwhile, a weak front will stall across the waters through Sunday, with renewed chances of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will setup anchor northeast of the coastal waters by Monday and remain there through at least midweek.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
A weak cold front will pass the districts late tonight, bringing a turn to westerly breezes and a somewhat drier air mass. A few afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon. Then high pressure will bridge in from the northeast on Sunday night, bringing a turn to northeast breezes on Monday along with a little more drying of the air mas. A deeply mixed layer on Tuesday afternoon will be the main contributor to high dispersion values over inland districts. This could lead to well-developed vertical smoke columns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024
The highest rainfall amounts have occurred from Geneva County to invof the I-10 corridor in the FL counties with radar estimated in the 3-6 inch, and another bullseye of 6-8 inches near southern Jefferson County. Much of the remainder of Southeast AL & Southwest GA (outside of the southern tier of counties) is in the 2-4 inch range.
The Flash Flood Watch is gradually being cancelled from northwest to southeast as the heavier rainfall abates late Saturday afternoon.
Additional rainfall of between a half of an inch and one inch is expected from the I-75 corridor of GA into the FL Big Bend through Sunday.
The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta (Skipper Bridge Road) and Quitman, Ochlockonee River at Concord, and Saint Marks River at Newport are all in minor flood, with the Saint Marks expected to crest just below moderate by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, some points along the Choctawhatchee, Chipola, Flint, and Aucilla Rivers are in -or- will reach action stage. The Shoal River at Mossy Head is also headed toward action stage as of late Saturday afternoon. Addt'l river flooding is possible as water continues to drain into the aforementioned basins.
Beyond Sunday, several days of dry weather is expected.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 79 68 87 68 / 80 40 40 0 Panama City 77 70 85 69 / 90 30 10 0 Dothan 75 67 84 66 / 100 20 20 0 Albany 75 67 84 65 / 90 30 50 0 Valdosta 79 68 86 67 / 80 50 40 10 Cross City 86 69 86 67 / 50 70 60 10 Apalachicola 79 71 84 70 / 80 40 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>018-026-027-112-114-115-118-127.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ147-157>159.
AL...None.
GM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT 1.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT 2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:20 PM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT 1.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:45 AM EDT 2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:20 PM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Pepperfish Keys, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2.5 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT 1.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:39 AM EDT 2.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:48 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT 1.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:39 AM EDT 2.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT 0.86 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Suwannee River entrance, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.7 |
| 9 am |
| 2.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.4 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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