Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 11:30 PM   Moonset 8:32 AM

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GMZ552 Expires:202404291515;;558296 Fzus54 Klix 290252 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 952 pm cdt Sun apr 28 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-291515- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 952 pm cdt Sun apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am cdt Monday - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots late this evening and early morning, then diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 952 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
strong winds will keep small craft advisory conditions in place through early tomorrow morning. Showers and storms are possible tomorrow. After this, the rest of the week should be relatively benign with light onshore flow.

FXUS64 KLIX 282347 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 647 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Some isolated showers and occasional thunderstorm is ongoing now though the next few hours due to some warm advection but not a lot of environmental support for these storms so they should be fairly weak and short lived with a few spots accumulating up to maybe 0.1 in of rain.
Otherwise, the other concern for the very short term is the elevated gusty winds due to a tightened pressure gradient between low pressure up to our northwest and high pressure to our east. With high pressure drifting eastward, winds have decreased slightly. But still is gusty at times, so will let the current wind advisory ride though expiration.
Also, due to the southeasterly winds, eastern facing shores will have some slight coastal flooding issues with the wind piling the water up during a high tide cycle later this evening. Tides should peak early tonight and then begin dropping. As the winds should be on the decrease by the time the next high tide cycle rolls though, it'll be allowed to expire this evening.

Moving into tomorrow morning, a line of convection is forecasted to move though the area. Timing is still a bit uncertain as it depends on the formation of convection in eastern Texas and how quickly it then moves here. Right now there are a few storms starting to bloom up at the tail end of a decaying line of convection near eastern TX/western LA. CAMs currently have the line coming in a bit earlier (14-15z in entering the CWA) but the globals/NBM has it a bit later. Biggest concern for this line will be the potential for heavy rain. Although it has been relatively dry (other than today), these storms will likely be efficient rainmakers. PW values of around 1.3-1.5in and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE should be sufficient to maintain these storms along with forcing from a shortwave passing though Arkansas/N Louisiana. Biggest unknown will be just where the heaviest rain will drop. Although this line should be relatively progressive, highly efficient rainfall could easily overwhelm localized areas. The best severe convective potential appears to be just to our west but definitely can't rule out some strong storms or maybe a severe one or two. As it continues to push eastward into our area, the environmental support will continue to decrease so the current thinking is it'll weaken as it moves eastward towards Mississippi but if it gets organized enough in east TX/west LA it could maintain itself a bit further. Once the line passes though it'll have a minor impact on the lows tomorrow night.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Going into the day on Tuesday, we get right back into onshore return flow following showers/storms the day prior, with isolated showers around within increasing deep rich Gulf return flow. No adjustments needed against NBM PoPs introducing around 30-40% chances primarily in the afternoon following peak diurnal heating. Might see a few intervals of disorganized showers/storms again on Wednesday in a progressive WSW/ENE flow and embedded subtle H5 impulses ride the flow, but the main storm track will remain well to our west and north as ridging dominates the SE US, providing multiple rounds of severe weather targeting the Plains states. Seeing some long-range trends hint at a front slowing/stalling across the area late week into the weekend, and with persistent H5 impulses riding the quasi- zonal flow aloft may introduce periods of showers/storms, perhaps an uptick in coverage this weekend. Too soon to narrow down timing/specifics, but will mention that there are no major indications of widespread heavy rain/severe weather outside of hit- or-miss shower/storm chances. Otherwise, only notable edits in the long range were to nudge up temperatures slightly above deterministic suggested values, with many areas reaching the mid 80's to some upper 80's especially by late week, persistently around 3-8 degrees above average for this time of the year.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Patchy MVFR ceilings are impacting most terminals this evening as low-level moisture advection continues across the area. Expect the MVFR ceilings to become more widespread overnight as the moisture pools ahead of an approaching thunderstorm complex. The complex should impact the western terminals by late morning and will impact all terminals throughout the morning and afternoon as it progresses eastward. When the line of storms passes, expect mostly 30-40 mph westerly gusts with it. After the complex exits in the early evening, MVFR ceilings look to hang around in its wake, and gusty southeast flow resumes.

MARINE
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Strong winds up to 35-40 knots remain on the coastal waters through late tonight before winds start to slowly decrease. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow morning as a line is forecasted to pass though the area from the early to mid morning hours though the afternoon. By the time it makes it to the Gulf waters, it likely will not be too strong but can't completely rule that out. There might be a need for exercise caution headlines at some point tomorrow night, but overall the conditions will become more benign with light onshore flow. -BL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 67 78 62 84 / 10 90 60 40 BTR 70 82 66 87 / 20 90 40 50 ASD 70 83 65 85 / 10 80 60 50 MSY 72 83 68 84 / 10 80 50 50 GPT 70 81 66 82 / 10 60 60 50 PQL 67 83 65 84 / 0 40 50 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058- 070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Caminada Pass (bridge)
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Sun -- 01:28 AM CDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:34 PM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Bayou Rigaud
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Sun -- 12:19 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:31 PM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayou Rigaud, Grand Isle, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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