Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Isle, LA
May 13, 2024 12:38 PM CDT (17:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 10:00 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
GMZ552 Expires:202405140515;;143834 Fzus54 Klix 131614 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 1114 am cdt Mon may 13 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-140515- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 1114 am cdt Mon may 13 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Tuesday afternoon - .
Rest of today - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tuesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 8 seconds.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.
Thursday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 1114 am cdt Mon may 13 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-140515- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 1114 am cdt Mon may 13 2024
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 1114 Am Cdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a boundary of showers and storms are producing gusty winds across ms sound which will gradually weaken over the afternoon. Moderate southerly winds will continue into Tuesday. Two main disturbances will move through the coastal waters this morning and this evening. Winds will ease as these systems move east Tuesday. Light southerly winds will remain through at least mid week.
a boundary of showers and storms are producing gusty winds across ms sound which will gradually weaken over the afternoon. Moderate southerly winds will continue into Tuesday. Two main disturbances will move through the coastal waters this morning and this evening. Winds will ease as these systems move east Tuesday. Light southerly winds will remain through at least mid week.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLIX 131203 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 703 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
All interests over SELA should be alert to future updates and warnings issued today; this includes marine, flight terminals, and inland interests.
There has been a concerning trend in model runs mainly from the GFS over the last several days that show a very fast moving MCS type feature(most likely a squall line/wake low) moving either along the coast or just inland entering our area from the west around 6pm today. The GFS was the first to show this but since then, the NAM, Euro and now the HRRR is starting to show this very same scenario. If this is going to actually occur, this feature should begin to develop over south central TX around or just after noon today. One can easily see that development of this system over south central TX around noon then only 6 hours later entering our area(~400 miles) would show this is a very fast moving feature which puts it moving east at around 70mph. The wind speeds associated with this should be 50-60kt but much higher gusts could be entirely possible.
The majority of the weather associated with this feature may stay over marine areas. The problem with setting any long fused warnings out at the moment is very dependant on exactly where this forms and how fast it actually moves. Since we don't know these specifics until after it forms, the timing and placement could be off quite a bit.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The upper flow is now supportive and subsequent lower level flows are also lining up to support the training of heavy rainfall. Models did show a very weak system moving through late this morning but this mornings system is a bit earlier than what previous model runs were showing but the main thing is, the system is much stronger than what any model was showing. The second system coming in late today is still expected but we will contend with the first one then start on the next. To show just how large the errors are in the 00z model runs, the HRRR has >5% of its members showing >5" rain between 1am and 7am today in an area from Gonzalez to Mandeville. This will not be occurring in that time frame but could later. The area to the north, where the heavy rainfall is actually occurring, this same model has no members showing a chance of getting >5" of rainfall.
This is what we expected with all of these models trying to handle mesoscale solutions. They will simply be all over the place. We will choose the models that are closest to where the activity has developed this morning(best initialization). One of these is the NAM Nest. This model develops this area into a line to the NW of the area this morning and swings it into the area well before daylight and slowly sinks it southward. This looks to be the most logical conclusion at the moment, so we will move more along these lines. This model, and the others still bring another system through the area this evening into the overnight hours. This first system could cause some flooding and severe weather issues, but if it does not cause any issues, it will at the very least prime the area ahead of the next. Both of these systems will be capable of flooding rainfall and severe storms. The Flood Watch will remain as this should verify for several locations. Rainfall amounts are still coming in from 3 to 6 inches with the highest of these numbers over coastal Mississippi through 7am Tuesday. Once the second system moves to the east, it will clean the area(clearing skies and stable conditions). This should occur by Tue afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The frontal boundary that is helping to cause all of this will have sunk back into the gulf by late Tue. The next upper troughing will then move out into the plains by mid week with sfc return flow forcing this boundary back to the north moving back over the area possibly as early as Thu and this whole thing looks to play out again similar to this event. The first disturbance moves through mid day Thu and may hug the coast. This should be associated with the warm front. The next main system will move along the cold frontal interface as it stalls across the area with an abundance of deep moisture Fri. This is at least one solution, but as one can clearly see with the current system, this will almost surely change several times before we get there. The general synoptic structure looks valid, but we will definitely need to get closer to even think of resolving the smaller scale features.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Cigs will mainly be between two levels, MVFR and IFR. There is a small window of VFR cigs by afternoon, but this will be temporary.
All terminals will have two systems impact their locations today.
The first will move through this morning and the second this evening. Each of these will cause IFR and even LIFR conditions for short to moderate term durations(1-3hrs).
MARINE
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The first of two systems will move through the area this morning.
Some of these storms will impact some of the coastal waters mainly the nearshore waters. A second system will move thorugh this evening to impact a greater portion of the gulf waters. Both of these systems could have strong to severe storms associated with them. Gradient flow winds will be southerly while convective winds will be from the direction of the nearest storm. Basically, wind direction will be all over the compass at times and could be quite strong. Tuesday looks to see these conditions ease but storms could be an issue once again toward the end of the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 81 65 84 62 / 100 80 30 0 BTR 87 69 89 66 / 90 70 20 0 ASD 85 69 89 66 / 90 80 50 0 MSY 85 72 89 71 / 90 90 50 0 GPT 83 69 87 68 / 100 90 60 10 PQL 84 69 88 66 / 100 90 70 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 071-076-079>086.
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ056>060-064>070-077- 078-087>090.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 703 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
All interests over SELA should be alert to future updates and warnings issued today; this includes marine, flight terminals, and inland interests.
There has been a concerning trend in model runs mainly from the GFS over the last several days that show a very fast moving MCS type feature(most likely a squall line/wake low) moving either along the coast or just inland entering our area from the west around 6pm today. The GFS was the first to show this but since then, the NAM, Euro and now the HRRR is starting to show this very same scenario. If this is going to actually occur, this feature should begin to develop over south central TX around or just after noon today. One can easily see that development of this system over south central TX around noon then only 6 hours later entering our area(~400 miles) would show this is a very fast moving feature which puts it moving east at around 70mph. The wind speeds associated with this should be 50-60kt but much higher gusts could be entirely possible.
The majority of the weather associated with this feature may stay over marine areas. The problem with setting any long fused warnings out at the moment is very dependant on exactly where this forms and how fast it actually moves. Since we don't know these specifics until after it forms, the timing and placement could be off quite a bit.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The upper flow is now supportive and subsequent lower level flows are also lining up to support the training of heavy rainfall. Models did show a very weak system moving through late this morning but this mornings system is a bit earlier than what previous model runs were showing but the main thing is, the system is much stronger than what any model was showing. The second system coming in late today is still expected but we will contend with the first one then start on the next. To show just how large the errors are in the 00z model runs, the HRRR has >5% of its members showing >5" rain between 1am and 7am today in an area from Gonzalez to Mandeville. This will not be occurring in that time frame but could later. The area to the north, where the heavy rainfall is actually occurring, this same model has no members showing a chance of getting >5" of rainfall.
This is what we expected with all of these models trying to handle mesoscale solutions. They will simply be all over the place. We will choose the models that are closest to where the activity has developed this morning(best initialization). One of these is the NAM Nest. This model develops this area into a line to the NW of the area this morning and swings it into the area well before daylight and slowly sinks it southward. This looks to be the most logical conclusion at the moment, so we will move more along these lines. This model, and the others still bring another system through the area this evening into the overnight hours. This first system could cause some flooding and severe weather issues, but if it does not cause any issues, it will at the very least prime the area ahead of the next. Both of these systems will be capable of flooding rainfall and severe storms. The Flood Watch will remain as this should verify for several locations. Rainfall amounts are still coming in from 3 to 6 inches with the highest of these numbers over coastal Mississippi through 7am Tuesday. Once the second system moves to the east, it will clean the area(clearing skies and stable conditions). This should occur by Tue afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The frontal boundary that is helping to cause all of this will have sunk back into the gulf by late Tue. The next upper troughing will then move out into the plains by mid week with sfc return flow forcing this boundary back to the north moving back over the area possibly as early as Thu and this whole thing looks to play out again similar to this event. The first disturbance moves through mid day Thu and may hug the coast. This should be associated with the warm front. The next main system will move along the cold frontal interface as it stalls across the area with an abundance of deep moisture Fri. This is at least one solution, but as one can clearly see with the current system, this will almost surely change several times before we get there. The general synoptic structure looks valid, but we will definitely need to get closer to even think of resolving the smaller scale features.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Cigs will mainly be between two levels, MVFR and IFR. There is a small window of VFR cigs by afternoon, but this will be temporary.
All terminals will have two systems impact their locations today.
The first will move through this morning and the second this evening. Each of these will cause IFR and even LIFR conditions for short to moderate term durations(1-3hrs).
MARINE
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The first of two systems will move through the area this morning.
Some of these storms will impact some of the coastal waters mainly the nearshore waters. A second system will move thorugh this evening to impact a greater portion of the gulf waters. Both of these systems could have strong to severe storms associated with them. Gradient flow winds will be southerly while convective winds will be from the direction of the nearest storm. Basically, wind direction will be all over the compass at times and could be quite strong. Tuesday looks to see these conditions ease but storms could be an issue once again toward the end of the week.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 81 65 84 62 / 100 80 30 0 BTR 87 69 89 66 / 90 70 20 0 ASD 85 69 89 66 / 90 80 50 0 MSY 85 72 89 71 / 90 90 50 0 GPT 83 69 87 68 / 100 90 60 10 PQL 84 69 88 66 / 100 90 70 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 071-076-079>086.
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ056>060-064>070-077- 078-087>090.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA | 7 mi | 50 min | S 8.9G | 81°F | 80°F | 29.84 | ||
| LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA | 22 mi | 38 min | SW 9.9G | 79°F | 4 ft | 29.83 | 77°F | |
| 42084 | 26 mi | 68 min | 79°F | 77°F | 4 ft | |||
| BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA | 39 mi | 38 min | 11G | |||||
| PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA | 39 mi | 50 min | S 5.1G | 77°F | 73°F | 29.85 | ||
| PILL1 | 42 mi | 50 min | SSW 7G | 79°F | 72°F | 29.86 | ||
| BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA | 45 mi | 50 min | 83°F | 81°F | 29.84 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGAO SOUTH LAFOURCHE LEONARD MILLER JR,LA | 20 sm | 23 min | calm | 7 sm | Overcast | Lt Drizzle | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.85 |
Tide / Current for Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caminada Pass (bridge)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:38 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 02:56 AM CDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:49 PM CDT 1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:38 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 02:56 AM CDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 03:49 PM CDT 1.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| -0.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| -0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Bayou Rigaud
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:38 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:36 AM CDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 02:53 PM CDT 1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:38 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:36 AM CDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 02:53 PM CDT 1.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bayou Rigaud, Grand Isle, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| -0.1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
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