Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Jamaica Beach, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 29, 2017 10:06 AM CDT (15:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:25AMMoonset 11:13PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 924 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2017
.gale warning in effect until 11 am cdt this morning...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots...decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 7 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to around 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 924 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms will diminish in coverage later today. Strong gusty winds up to gale force will subside through midday...however advisory conditions are expected to persist through the afternoon. Persistent moderate southeasterly winds are expected from Tuesday through Saturday along with periods of showers and Thunderstorms. An area of disturbed weather may develop near the lower texas coast Saturday and track into the region early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamaica Beach, TX
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location: 29.2, -94.99     debug

Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 291157
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
657 am cdt Mon may 29 2017

Still some stratiform rain and embedded showers and thunderstorms
going on west southwest of sgr lbx this morning likely in response
to the MCS moving east through the northwest gulf. Ceilings of 200
ft briefly possible around cll uts cxo otherwise mainlyVFR.

Showers should pop up late this morning around the area and
transition over to tsra around noon or a little later. Low
confidence on where specifically so will vcsh vcts it for now.

Second issue is gradient wind event near the coast with meso-high
over the far coastal waters that should subside in the next couple
of hours.


Another update to hoist gale warning for the gulf waters and sca
for bays as gradient wind event roars away... By 15z expect winds
to have dropped off dramatically from the current gusts of 35-45


Prev discussion issued 537 am cdt Mon may 29 2017

meso-high driving gradient winds across the coastal waters and
into the coast and bays. Winds of 20-30kts gusts to 40 for the
next few hours. Winds should weaken as storms well offshore
weaken. Will have to watch comma head rotating in from the west
and could clip or aggravate the already strong winds as it pushes
east. Have hoisted SCA for all waters through 10 am and special
marine warnings through 7 am.

prev discussion... Issued 419 am cdt Mon may 29 2017

light to moderate rainfall lingers across southeast texas this
morning behind an outflow boundary that has since pushed off the
upper texas coast. Regional radar mosiac shows most of the
thunderstorm activity this morning relegated to the western gulf
of mexico, with an expansive thunderstorm complex stretching from
corpus christi to harlingen slowly pushing to the east.

Extrapolation of current storm movement places this complex into
the western waters sometime between 5 and 7 am cdt. At least
through the morning hours, this complex will be the primary driver
for rain chances for the region as its parent shortwave trough
lifts towards the region, pushing the complex and associated
surface low mesoscale convective vortex into it. What remains to
be seen at this time is how far north rain chances will extend
inland this morning as the outflow approaching the south texas
thunderstorm complex may result in enough low level convergence
off the coast to block inflow and cut off rain chances farther
inland. With mid and upper level steering flow from the southwest
concerned that there may be some expansion or movement to the
northeast into the matagorda bay area and have maintained 60-70
pops for this morning as a result. However, if this complex
appears to remain offshore an update may be needed later this
morning to lower rain chances.

With most activity along the coast and across the waters early this
morning, expect to see at least a brief break in rain chances but
daytime heating will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm
development across the region mid to late morning and into the
afternoon. Expect greatest coverage to occur along several of the
remnant boundaries draped across the region. Surface analysis
reveals that yesterday's cold front remains stalled well north of
the interstate 10 corridor, stretching from san antonio to hearne
to athens. The kgrk radar this morning is also showing several
moisture "fine lines" across the brazos valley, indicative of
remnant outflow boundaries from last night's storms. Other
unidentified boundaries may also exist farther south of these
locations. Limited shear (less than 20 knots) present through
early afternoon and much less steep lapse rates than yesterday
(5.5-6.5 c km) will result in a much lower severe weather threat
today, but with some dry air present between the surface and 600
mb on forecast soundings cannot rule out gusty winds in stronger
convection. 1.7-2 inch precipitable water values today (higher
than the 75th percentile for this time of year) will also mean the
locally heavy rain threat will continue, especially along any of
the aforementioned boundaries. Subsidence from the passing
shortwave trough should result in another break in the rain by
this evening and into tonight, with diurnal heating and
precipitable water values in the 1.6-1.8 inch range on Tuesday
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
capable of locally heavy rain. Expect highs to range in the upper
70s to low 80s today, warming into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region Wednesday into the weekend as a series of disturbances now
near the gulf of alaska on early morning water vapor imagery drop
to near baja california and translate east across texas. Elevated
precipitable water values in the 1.6-1.9 inch range will mean the
threat for locally heavy rainfall will persist each day, with rain
chances likely being enhanced during the daytime hours from
heating. Expect high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 80s
through the end of the work week. Dry weather may not return to
the forecast until early to mid next week as shortwave ridging
attempts to build into the region.


stormy weather this morning over the coastal waters. Outflow
pushed southward through the region bringing gusty conditions
(20-45kt) and has collided with boundary offshore and being
intercepted by incoming MCS from crp area. Hoisted a SCA through
10 for these strong winds and elevated seas but by 8-10 am expect
that conditions should be improving except for all but the far
coastal waters where storms will probably be the most active-or
just south of there... Will need to keep an eye out for meso high
developing and ramping up winds.

Otherwise easterly winds becoming southeasterly this afternoon
and overnight gradually increasing to 10 to 15 knots and then
persisting through Saturday. As moist to very moist conditions
flowing into and through the region expecting showers and
thunderstorms to remain a threat.

Ecmwf still painting the scenario of fairly intense low pressure
system developing in the western gulf (Saturday) and slowly moving
to near galveston (Monday morning) which would have big impacts
on the current forecast. Have trended the forecast toward the gfs
but will be watching closely to see of the GFS or the ECMWF blink.


Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 80 69 84 69 85 40 30 40 20 50
houston (iah) 81 70 84 71 85 50 30 60 30 50
galveston (gls) 80 74 81 76 83 60 50 60 30 50

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 11 am cdt this morning for the
following zones: galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Gale warning until 11 am cdt this morning for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to the matagorda ship
channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the matagorda
ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to
freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 14
aviation marine... 45

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GRRT2 9 mi48 min S 13 G 17 76°F 81°F1017 hPa
LUIT2 11 mi48 min SSE 16 G 26 75°F
GTOT2 13 mi48 min 76°F 81°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi54 min S 22 G 25 80°F1016.2 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi48 min SW 18 G 21 76°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 24 mi48 min S 21 G 27 76°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
KXIH 25 mi51 min SW 26 G 32 75°F 70°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 31 mi76 min S 21 G 25 77°F 79°F7 ft1014.8 hPa (+5.5)69°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 33 mi48 min S 8 G 11 77°F 81°F1016.7 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 33 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 15 76°F 78°F1016.8 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi48 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 72°F 78°F1017 hPa
LYBT2 39 mi48 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 71°F 81°F1016.1 hPa
HIST2 42 mi54 min S 5.1 G 8.9 77°F 80°F1017 hPa
SGNT2 45 mi48 min SSE 20 G 26 76°F 82°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX8 mi74 minS 21 G 2810.00 miLight Rain and Breezy76°F70°F82%1016 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE8SE12SE13SE14SE15SE15SE16SE14SE14S14SE6E6E5E7N23
1 day agoS15S14S15S15S14S13S14S11SE10SE13SE13SE12S13S13S14S17
2 days agoS13S13S11S13S13SE14SE14SE14S13S14S14SE13SE15S15S14S15S16S12S17S17S13S15S14S12

Tide / Current Tables for Jamaica Beach, West Bay, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Jamaica Beach
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Mon -- 04:40 AM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:12 PM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Mon -- 12:30 AM CDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:11 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM CDT     2.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:49 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.