Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hill, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:53PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:23 PM EST (23:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 329 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 329 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis..High pressure over the deep south will elongate and shift eastward into the atlantic this weekend with light onshore flow Saturday. Winds freshen slightly early next week as a gentle to moderate easterly breeze Sunday becomes southeast Monday. A weak cool front will approach the local atlantic waters on Tuesday.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday january 18th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hill, FL
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location: 29.22, -81.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 192049
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
349 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Discussion
Tonight sat... High clouds across the north have temporarily pushed
out of the area with cirrus lingering across the south with some
scraps of stratocu. Forecast model soundings show remoistening
occurring aloft overnight with cirrus moving back in across the
area from the W sw. Coolest temperatures will occur across the far
north (pierson astor) with upper 30s and patchy frost will be
possible in normally colder locations. Elsewhere, min temps in
the 40s with mid 50s along the martin coast. On sat... Considerable
cloudiness is expected with multi layered clouds in the form of
cirrus and (mid level) altocumulus with stratocumulus thrown in
esp across the south half. There will continue to be a significant
dry layer between 750-850 mb and the stratocu should pancake
beneath the inversion. So rain is not expected.

00z Sun - 12z mon...

h100-h70 anticyclone over the gomex deep south will be nudged east
by a high amp h85-h30 short wave extending from the rio grande
valley to the lwr ms valley. The ridge will eventually recenter
itself btwn bermuda and the NRN bahamas where it will gradually
weaken. Southerly flow will prevail thru the h100-h70 lyr, generally
e SE thru h100-h85, S SW thru h85-h70. The combined south onshore
wind components will continue the warming trend, displacing what
remains of the cold sfc low lvl air. Sun night mins in the l m50s
except u50s l60s along the immediate treasure coast. Sun MAX temps
in the l m70s except m u60s along the coast from the CAPE northward
as the onshore flow passes over the cold shelf waters. Mon night
mins in the l m50s except u50s m60s along the space treasure coasts.

While the onshore flow will allow pwat values to recover, their
current 0.25"-0.50" lvls are not going to do so before the weekend
is out. While model guidance does indicate pwat recovering to 1.00"-
1.25" by Sat night Sun mrng, most of the moisture will be in the h70-
h30 lyr, while the h85-h70 lyr remains quite dry with dewpoint
depressions in the 10-15c range, and the h100-h70 mean rh values
remain largely in the 50-60pct range. Final nail in the coffin for
precip will be the anticipated S SW flow thru the h85-h70 lyr that
will prevent even low-topped marine shras from pushing onshore. Both
mav ECMWF mos guidance has backed way off their wetter solutions
from the 18 12z run, but still trying to generate slgt chc of shras
along the coast. Will ignore these and keep the fcst dry.

Extended... (prev disc)
a longwave trough over the central CONUS is forecast to lift toward
new england early next week, largely abandoning its surface front
over the deep south. Warm southerly flow out ahead of the front will
bring above normal temperatures areawide, with 80 possible Monday
afternoon across the interior. The front will sag down the peninsula
Tuesday with little more than an increase in cloud cover and a
shower or two. Temps will trend closer to normal by mid week as
winds shift out of the N NE behind the boundary. By late in the
week, uncertainty builds with the GFS indicating weak low pressure
transiting the gulf and the ECMWF maintaining drier E NE flow. Sided
with the ECMWF and its ensemble members, significantly undercutting
mos guidance on Thursday.

Aviation
Vfr. High cloudiness is expected to move back in from the W sw
overnight with additional moistening aloft to produce some altocu
on sat. In addition, southern terminals (vrb-sua) should see more
marine stratocu with CIGS around 035 agl on sat.

Marine
Tonight sat... Low level ridge axis just north of the waters will
produce a light NE flow across the northern waters and easterly
flow across the south, 5-10 knots. Seas will continue to subside
to 3-4 feet Saturday.

Sun-sun night... Center of a strong high pres ridge centered btwn
bermuda and the NRN bahamas will drift slowly seaward, generating a
steady onshore flow. Sfc bndry lyr winds a light to gentle E ne
breeze thru the day, bcmg a gentle to moderate by sunset, then
veering to E SE overnight. Seas 2-3ft over the shelf waters, 3-4ft
in the gulf stream. Slgt chc shras in the gulf stream.

Mon-mon night... Ridge axis will weaken over the W atlc as it
continues to drift seaward in advance of the next cold front. Gentle
to moderate E SE breeze at daybreak, bcmg SE by late aftn, S SE by
midnight, then a light to gentle S SW breeze by daybreak tue. Seas
subsiding to 2-3ft areawide by mid aftn. Slgt chc of shras.

Tue-tue night... Shifting winds as a weakening cold front pushes thru
central fl and the LCL atlc. Light to gentle S SW breeze at
daybreak, bcmg lgt vrbl with the fropa, shifting to a light to
gentle N NW breeze by midday, N NE by sunset, then a gentle to
moderate NE breeze overnight. Seas 2-3ft thru the day, building to 3-
4ft aft sunset. Slgt chc of shras.

Wed-wed night... Post-frontal ridge axis will expand over the se
conus, shunting the cold front south of jupiter inlet where it will
stall. Gentle to moderate NE breeze will prevail that will push a
moderate swell into the east fl coast. Seas 3-4ft areawide.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 41 64 53 67 0 0 10 10
mco 44 70 54 74 0 0 10 10
mlb 46 70 57 71 0 10 10 10
vrb 49 70 58 73 10 10 10 10
lee 42 67 52 72 0 0 10 10
sfb 43 68 52 73 0 0 10 10
orl 47 69 54 73 0 0 10 10
fpr 49 70 59 73 10 10 10 10

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Kelly
long term... .Bragaw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 32 mi99 min E 4.1 53°F 1027 hPa36°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 46 mi84 min Calm G 1 50°F 50°F1025.2 hPa (-1.1)
41118 48 mi54 min 3 ft
RCYF1 49 mi54 min 51°F
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 60 mi54 min NNE 6 G 7 56°F 60°F1025.8 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL3 mi31 minE 410.00 miA Few Clouds52°F44°F75%1024.6 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi34 minE 310.00 miClear52°F41°F67%1024.7 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL12 mi37 minN 010.00 miClear52°F44°F77%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmW3CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmN4NE33Calm3NE6E6E4E4
1 day agoNW9NW10NW13
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NW12NW7NW9NW8NW6NW6NW5NW7NW8N9N10N12N13
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2 days agoN4CalmN3NW5N4N3CalmCalmN5CalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmNW35W10W10W10NW9
G18
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Fri -- 02:49 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.60-0.10.2123.13.94.24.13.42.51.40.50-00.41.22.12.93.33.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:30 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.50.5-0.1-0.30.111.92.83.53.93.83.32.31.20.3-0.2-0.10.51.32.233.43.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.