Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holly Hill, FL
May 19, 2024 6:13 AM EDT (10:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:28 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:51 PM Moonset 3:05 AM |
AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 354 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest late. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 3 feet at 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday - North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 8 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 190752 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 352 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE
Strong to Severe Storms Possible Today, Especially South
Slightly Cooler Early in the Week, Warming By Next Weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Today-Tonight...Another challenging forecast lies ahead for today with regard to PoPs and the chance for strong to severe lightning storms later this afternoon. For now, temperatures have fallen into the 70s and will not fall but a couple or few degrees more by daybreak. With dew points well into the 70s, the air has a pronounced muggy feel. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures are forecast this afternoon, with the warmest locations expected south around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. It is in these same locations that we will be watching for the highest coverage of shower and storm development this afternoon, based on the latest hi-res guidance.
As a decaying line of showers reaches the northern half of the forecast area this morning, it will send a layer of mid to high level clouds south across the peninsula. Despite this thin and scattered layer of high-altitude cloud cover, insolation should be plenty sufficient for efficient surface heating from late morning onward. Slightly warmer 500mb temps will exist across the south, partly a reason for the higher forecast values there this afternoon. In addition to the thin veil of cloud cover, model guidance suggests that early-day outflow may lay out a boundary for afternoon convection to form along, somewhere in the vicinity of Tampa/Sarasota to Vero Beach/Jupiter. Near this residual boundary, a collision of an active Lake Okeechobee breeze and east coast breeze (ECSB) along the Treasure Coast is forecast by mid afternoon. With this occurring as convective temperatures are reached during peak daytime heating, a speedy growth of showers and lightning storms is expected. Considerable uncertainty regarding convective initiation exists from Sebastian/Melbourne northward, where model soundings suggest surface temperatures may not reach required convT and where the formation of the ECSB appears less likely.
In summary, the highest coverage of lightning storms and thereby, the greater concern for severe weather, will be focused from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast this afternoon. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms does extend as far north as Cape Canaveral to cover a more conditional risk for organized convection. Elsewhere, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists, including Orlando and areas near/north of Interstate 4. The primary concerns today will be large hail (-10C at 500mb) and strong to damaging wind gusts. In addition, there is a non-zero tornado risk, mainly where locally backed winds due to the ECSB could enhance low-level helicity. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will accompany the most organized storms.
Storm activity will linger across southern reaches of the area through mid to late evening, eventually coming to an end around midnight. A nearly stationary cool front will remain across north- central Florida through late tonight, but temperatures should fall further into the 70s and upper 60s by Monday morning due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft.
Monday-Next Weekend...Mid level troughing will extend across the FL Peninsula early in the week with surface flow veering out of the north-northeast through Tuesday. Each afternoon, the east coast sea breeze is expected to push inland as modest PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" remain over the area. Light QPF amounts vary from model to model along the inland-moving sea breeze each day, so confidence in measurable rainfall is generally low Monday but especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier air filters south from Wednesday through late week as surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds across the state. Mentionable PoPs remain confined to the Lake O/Treasure Coast region Wednesday afternoon with drier conditions Thursday into next weekend. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach to near normal (mid/upper 80s) with a few locations along the coast slightly below late May norms (low 80s). A gradual warming trend returns Wednesday as onshore flow resumes and 500mb temps begin to warm, especially inland. Highs back in the low to mid 90s are expected for the latter half of the work week, except where in the mid/upper 80s at the coast behind the daily sea breeze. An early look at the upcoming holiday weekend from the NBME shows a 60 percent chance or greater for high temperatures in the 90s across the area. In addition, a sea breeze collision across the interior may become more slightly more active in the late afternoon/early evening hours, enough to mention 15-20 PoP for now.
MARINE
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Today-Tonight...SSW winds this morning 10-15 kt subside before the east coast breeze develops early to mid afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Winds may gust around 15 kt as a result.
Shower and lightning storm development is forecast, especially along and south of Sebastian Inlet, after 2-3 PM. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 kt or greater, large hail, and even a waterspout. The highest chance for strong to severe storms will be across the adjacent Treasure Coast waters. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. Rain and storms may persist into the early morning hours of Monday, predominantly well offshore.
This Week...Seas build up to 5 ft offshore late Monday afternoon and night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas return to 2-4 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
A tricky precipitation forecast today with some uncertainty in place. A first wave of diminishing showers looks to move southward across the northern terminals with VCSH introduced at LEE by 08Z, making it to MCO/ISM by 12Z. A second wave of convection moves westward across the peninsula from mid morning into the afternoon. Have included a mention of VCTS at MCO/ISM at 18Z while the current forecast keeps terminals to the north dry.
VCTS beginning around 17/18Z from TIX southward as storms approach from the west. The highest confidence is at VRB/FPR where TSRA TEMPOs are included from 18/21Z. Will reevaluate if TSRA TEMPOs are needed at SUA/MLB in the 12Z package.
South winds early this morning veer southwest to west by late morning, generally remaining 12 kts or less. An east coast sea breeze is forecast at the Treasure Coast terminals after 22Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 70 82 70 / 40 30 40 20 MCO 87 71 87 70 / 60 20 50 10 MLB 88 71 86 72 / 60 30 50 30 VRB 90 71 88 70 / 70 40 50 30 LEE 86 72 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 SFB 88 70 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 88 71 88 70 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 91 71 88 69 / 70 40 60 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 352 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
New DISCUSSION, MARINE
Strong to Severe Storms Possible Today, Especially South
Slightly Cooler Early in the Week, Warming By Next Weekend
DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Today-Tonight...Another challenging forecast lies ahead for today with regard to PoPs and the chance for strong to severe lightning storms later this afternoon. For now, temperatures have fallen into the 70s and will not fall but a couple or few degrees more by daybreak. With dew points well into the 70s, the air has a pronounced muggy feel. Near to slightly above normal high temperatures are forecast this afternoon, with the warmest locations expected south around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. It is in these same locations that we will be watching for the highest coverage of shower and storm development this afternoon, based on the latest hi-res guidance.
As a decaying line of showers reaches the northern half of the forecast area this morning, it will send a layer of mid to high level clouds south across the peninsula. Despite this thin and scattered layer of high-altitude cloud cover, insolation should be plenty sufficient for efficient surface heating from late morning onward. Slightly warmer 500mb temps will exist across the south, partly a reason for the higher forecast values there this afternoon. In addition to the thin veil of cloud cover, model guidance suggests that early-day outflow may lay out a boundary for afternoon convection to form along, somewhere in the vicinity of Tampa/Sarasota to Vero Beach/Jupiter. Near this residual boundary, a collision of an active Lake Okeechobee breeze and east coast breeze (ECSB) along the Treasure Coast is forecast by mid afternoon. With this occurring as convective temperatures are reached during peak daytime heating, a speedy growth of showers and lightning storms is expected. Considerable uncertainty regarding convective initiation exists from Sebastian/Melbourne northward, where model soundings suggest surface temperatures may not reach required convT and where the formation of the ECSB appears less likely.
In summary, the highest coverage of lightning storms and thereby, the greater concern for severe weather, will be focused from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast this afternoon. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms does extend as far north as Cape Canaveral to cover a more conditional risk for organized convection. Elsewhere, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists, including Orlando and areas near/north of Interstate 4. The primary concerns today will be large hail (-10C at 500mb) and strong to damaging wind gusts. In addition, there is a non-zero tornado risk, mainly where locally backed winds due to the ECSB could enhance low-level helicity. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will accompany the most organized storms.
Storm activity will linger across southern reaches of the area through mid to late evening, eventually coming to an end around midnight. A nearly stationary cool front will remain across north- central Florida through late tonight, but temperatures should fall further into the 70s and upper 60s by Monday morning due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft.
Monday-Next Weekend...Mid level troughing will extend across the FL Peninsula early in the week with surface flow veering out of the north-northeast through Tuesday. Each afternoon, the east coast sea breeze is expected to push inland as modest PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" remain over the area. Light QPF amounts vary from model to model along the inland-moving sea breeze each day, so confidence in measurable rainfall is generally low Monday but especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier air filters south from Wednesday through late week as surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds across the state. Mentionable PoPs remain confined to the Lake O/Treasure Coast region Wednesday afternoon with drier conditions Thursday into next weekend. Daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach to near normal (mid/upper 80s) with a few locations along the coast slightly below late May norms (low 80s). A gradual warming trend returns Wednesday as onshore flow resumes and 500mb temps begin to warm, especially inland. Highs back in the low to mid 90s are expected for the latter half of the work week, except where in the mid/upper 80s at the coast behind the daily sea breeze. An early look at the upcoming holiday weekend from the NBME shows a 60 percent chance or greater for high temperatures in the 90s across the area. In addition, a sea breeze collision across the interior may become more slightly more active in the late afternoon/early evening hours, enough to mention 15-20 PoP for now.
MARINE
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Today-Tonight...SSW winds this morning 10-15 kt subside before the east coast breeze develops early to mid afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Winds may gust around 15 kt as a result.
Shower and lightning storm development is forecast, especially along and south of Sebastian Inlet, after 2-3 PM. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 kt or greater, large hail, and even a waterspout. The highest chance for strong to severe storms will be across the adjacent Treasure Coast waters. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. Rain and storms may persist into the early morning hours of Monday, predominantly well offshore.
This Week...Seas build up to 5 ft offshore late Monday afternoon and night as surface winds veer NNE and briefly increase to around 15 kt. Seas return to 2-4 ft Tuesday and fall further mid to late week as high pressure builds over the waters. Rain and storm chances remain elevated on Monday before gradually tapering off mid to late week, as well. Winds NE on Tuesday, 10-15 kt, veering easterly Wednesday and beyond at or around 10 kt. The east coast sea breeze may locally increase wind speeds to around 15 kt each afternoon closer to the coast.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
A tricky precipitation forecast today with some uncertainty in place. A first wave of diminishing showers looks to move southward across the northern terminals with VCSH introduced at LEE by 08Z, making it to MCO/ISM by 12Z. A second wave of convection moves westward across the peninsula from mid morning into the afternoon. Have included a mention of VCTS at MCO/ISM at 18Z while the current forecast keeps terminals to the north dry.
VCTS beginning around 17/18Z from TIX southward as storms approach from the west. The highest confidence is at VRB/FPR where TSRA TEMPOs are included from 18/21Z. Will reevaluate if TSRA TEMPOs are needed at SUA/MLB in the 12Z package.
South winds early this morning veer southwest to west by late morning, generally remaining 12 kts or less. An east coast sea breeze is forecast at the Treasure Coast terminals after 22Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 70 82 70 / 40 30 40 20 MCO 87 71 87 70 / 60 20 50 10 MLB 88 71 86 72 / 60 30 50 30 VRB 90 71 88 70 / 70 40 50 30 LEE 86 72 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 SFB 88 70 86 69 / 40 20 50 10 ORL 88 71 88 70 / 50 20 60 10 FPR 91 71 88 69 / 70 40 60 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41070 | 11 mi | 99 min | 77°F | 3 ft | ||||
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 32 mi | 89 min | SW 1.9 | 73°F | 29.89 | 70°F | ||
| SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL | 46 mi | 74 min | WSW 5.1G | 74°F | 78°F | 29.85 | 74°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDAB DAYTONA BEACH INTL,FL | 4 sm | 20 min | WNW 08 | 8 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 29.88 | |
| KDED DELAND MUNISIDNEY H TAYLOR FIELD,FL | 18 sm | 18 min | W 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 75°F | 72°F | 89% | 29.90 | |
| KFIN FLAGLER EXECUTIVE,FL | 20 sm | 18 min | WSW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 72°F | 94% | 29.88 |
Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT 3.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:16 PM EDT 3.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT 3.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT 0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:16 PM EDT 3.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 2.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.3 |
| 6 am |
| 3.4 |
| 7 am |
| 3.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT 3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 11:48 AM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT 3.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT 3.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 11:48 AM EDT 0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:20 PM EDT 3.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Daytona Beach Shores (Sunglow Pier), Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 2.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.2 |
| 6 am |
| 3.3 |
| 7 am |
| 3 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Melbourne, FL,
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