Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buras, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:15PM Friday March 24, 2017 2:58 AM CDT (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:38AMMoonset 3:57PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 948 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 am cdt Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until late afternoon, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..South winds near 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds near 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 948 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis..A storm system developing in the great plains will produce strong onshore flow from this evening through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buras, LA
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location: 29.29, -89.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240459
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1159 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017

Aviation
Pretty decent low level winds to maintain good visibility but a
marine layer deck that may lower to ifr briefly around sunrise
before lifting to MVFR levels. Convection develops to the west of
the terminal locations during the day and start impacting kbtr and
kmcb toward the latter portion of the valid period. The remaining
locations will have organized convective onset in subsequent hours
to be included in the 12z issuance. 24/rr

Prev discussion /issued 424 pm cdt Thu mar 23 2017/
synopsis...

latest surface analysis showed a stationary front extending from
a deep 996mb low over the central plains to northwest louisiana
to florida parishes to mississippi coastal waters. Surface flow
was generally southeast parallel to the frontal zone. Surface
dewpoint readings were in the mid to upper 50s northeast of the
boundary except mississippi coast with values in the lower 60s off
the sound. Dewpoint values were in the 60 to 67f southwest of the
boundary.

Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis from northeast gulf of
mexico to the great lakes region and developing closed low over
the four corners region. Isotach at 250mb initialized jet MAX of
130 knots on the base and front side of the wave/low.

Short term...

deep surface trough/low over the central plains will begin to dive
east southeast through Friday. Strong jet MAX off the southern
rockies will allow the system to entrain dry air. This will
tightened the moisture axis along the disturbance ahead of the
closed low. Surface base CAPE values will increase across the
west zones Friday afternoon with values 300 to 500 j/kg. However,
the most of the lift will occur Friday night into Saturday. As a
result, will maintain slight chance of convection Friday
afternoon.

Low level southeast to south flow and southwest flow aloft will
increase 0-3km helicity values 250 to 400 m/s Friday evening
through early Saturday mainly across the north half of the
forecast area. Isolated storms that will have a chance to yield a
tornado will likely occur when the initial convection moves east
into northwest zones around midnight Friday night. CAPE values do
increase with values of 700 j/kg across southwest mississippi to
1500 j/kg along the louisiana. With the upper level disturbance
rotating southeast through the forecast area Friday night a few
storms may contain damaging winds and hail. 500mb temps may dip
to -17f across northwest zones early Saturday behind the
disturbance. As a result, a few storms may contain hail. As for
now, damaging winds and hail storms are the main threat and
isolated tornadoes as a secondary threat due to the small timing
window.

Long term...

with no true frontal passage over the weekend, low level moisture
will remain in play. However, mid layer moisture will be pushed
east provide a break on Sunday. A short wave will rake across the
north zones on Monday yielding a few storms, and few of these
storms could be strong but below severe limits.

Meanwhile in the latter part of the forecast, a very strong
system will approach the lower mississippi valley late Wednesday
into Thursday. While 7 to 8 days away, the pattern does support a
round of strong to severe across the forecast area late next week.

Aviation...

vfr conditions will continue at all of the terminals through 00z.

However, an area of MVFR ceilings around 2000 feet will begin to
advect into the area between 00z and 06z. Kgpt will see ceilings
develop closer to 00z while kbtr should see ceilings develop
closer to 03z. These ceilings should then persist through the
remainder of the forecast period. Southerly winds will also
increase by 12z tomorrow with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots
and gusts over 25 knots possible. 32
marine...

surface low will continue to deepen over the central plains and
tightened the pressure gradient. Will maintain small craft
exercise caution headlines for this evening. Winds are expected to
increase to 20 knots over extreme eastern waters after midnight.

The remainder of opening waters will see wind speeds increase to
20 to 25 knots on Friday. Will issue a small craft advisory to
cover this hazard. Mariners should also be aware of the potential
for one or more lines of thunderstorms to move through the waters
late Friday night into Saturday. Likely to be a prolonged period
of southeast or south winds over the waters through at least
midweek next week, outside of thunderstorms. 18
decision support...

dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... None.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and/or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 63 77 65 75 / 10 20 70 70
btr 64 80 67 78 / 10 20 70 60
asd 66 77 67 78 / 10 20 20 70
msy 66 79 68 78 / 10 20 20 70
gpt 67 75 66 73 / 10 20 10 70
pql 64 74 64 74 / 10 20 10 70

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz557-575-577.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz536-570-
572.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz575-577.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm cdt Friday for gmz570-572.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDLP 13 mi18 min SE 13 G 19 70°F 70°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 16 mi40 min SE 12 G 15 71°F 72°F1021.8 hPa
GRBL1 21 mi118 min SE 13 G 16 1022 hPa (-0.3)
PILL1 23 mi40 min SE 8.9 G 13 69°F 54°F1022.5 hPa
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 28 mi40 min SE 14 G 19
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 29 mi58 min ESE 20 G 22 71°F 1022.8 hPa (-0.6)66°F
KXPY 31 mi23 min SE 15 G 21 72°F 66°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 34 mi31 min SE 21 G 24 72°F 3 ft1021.1 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 40 mi40 min SE 15 G 19 70°F 75°F1022.6 hPa
KMIS 43 mi23 min S 7 G 17 75°F 66°F
KMDJ 45 mi23 min SE 22 73°F 66°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boothville, LA14 mi2.1 hrsSE 77.00 miA Few Clouds68°F66°F96%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmN4N3N4E4E6E9E6E9E9E8NE7E7E8E10E6E5E5E6SE6SE7SE7SE7
1 day agoW7W8NW5NW4--NW6NW9NW9NW10NW9N8NE53N3NW3SW8W5SW4W7SW7W6W5W4W4
2 days agoSW8W7W8W5W6W8W9SW11SW11SW12SW12SW14SW13SW13SW11SW12SW11SW11W14
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Bastian Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Bastian Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM CDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM CDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.30.10-0-0-000.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.90.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Quatre Bayous Pass, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Quatre Bayous Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:23 AM CDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:08 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.40.30.10-0-0-000.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.9111

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.