Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 2:41 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM

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GMZ552 Expires:202405171715;;345006 Fzus54 Klix 170409 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 1109 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-171715- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 1109 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024
.tornado watch 251 in effect until 3 am cdt Friday - ..small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night - .
Overnight - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - South winds 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Visibility 1 nm or less. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Visibility 1 nm or less in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday - Northwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 8 seconds. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Monday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1109 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a warm front will lift northeastward across the waters through tonight. Southeasterly winds will increase to small craft advisory levels in wake of the frontal passage. Multiple rounds of Thunderstorms will bring the potential for an extended period of hazardous conditions on the waters through Saturday morning.

FXUS64 KLIX 170814 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 314 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Although there are a few storms remaining early this morning, any severe threat likely limited to borderline hail as main portion of shortwave is east of the area. Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding severe threat and heavy rain threat over the next 24 hours. Deepest moisture remains just offshore where dew points are in the mid and upper 70s, but drier air is over the northern portion of the area, where dew points are in the lower 60s. Next shortwave actually won't approach the area until the overnight period tonight into Saturday morning when precipitable water values will again approach 2 inches, as southerly surface winds pull moisture back into the area. Quite a bit of mid level dry air for much of the area until perhaps 06z Saturday, and would anticipate that instantaneous areal coverage during the day today should remain on the scattered side, with a significant increase in areal coverage during the mid to late evening hours. Drier air returns during the day Saturday.

Will keep the Flood Watch in place, as there was a fairly sizeable area of 1.5 to 3 inch rainfalls, and another inch or two on top of that overnight tonight could cause runoff issues.

Will not move off the NBM temperature forecast at this time, but the main question for high temperatures today will be cloud cover.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper ridging builds from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi River Valley beginning Saturday evening through much or all of the workweek. At present, it appears that any significant chance of precipitation beyond tomorrow morning is likely to wait until beyond the end of the forecast package, with at least some potential to remain dry through next weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the forecast period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Most forecast terminals VFR at issuance time, although thunder still being reported in the vicinity of most. Should see TSRA end at most terminals in the next hour or two, but expect ceilings to deteriorate to MVFR or IFR prior to sunrise. MVFR ceilings may remain at most terminals for much of the daytime hours. Main question during the day will be how much, if any, convective activity occurs. Most of the model guidance indicates convective development primarily beyond 00z Saturday, with some holding it off beyond 06z.

MARINE
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Small Craft Advisory is already in place through tonight, which may be a bit overdone during the overnight period, but would prefer not to get into a situation of lowering it to Small Craft Exercise Caution and having to re-invoke an Advisory. Day shift can lower it this afternoon if it still appears that overnight winds will remain below advisory criteria. Beyond the first 24-30 hours of the forecast, a quieter wind and sea state appears to be in the cards.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 81 66 84 65 / 70 60 50 10 BTR 87 71 89 70 / 60 60 40 0 ASD 88 71 86 69 / 60 70 60 10 MSY 88 73 86 73 / 50 80 60 10 GPT 85 70 83 69 / 60 70 70 10 PQL 87 70 84 67 / 50 70 80 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ068.

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 057-058-060-064-071-076>087-089.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Bastian Island
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Fri -- 02:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:07 AM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM CDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bastian Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Quatre Bayous Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:49 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:12 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:31 PM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quatre Bayous Pass, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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