Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tiki Island, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday May 23, 2019 6:53 PM CDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 639 Pm Cdt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday..South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 639 Pm Cdt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate onshore winds and elevated seas will persist into the weekend. Wind speeds and seas should generally diminish Saturday into Sunday with more typical summer wind patterns. Although expect higher winds offshore at night. Expect an increase in winds and seas early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tiki Island, TX
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location: 29.32, -94.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 232012
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
312 pm cdt Thu may 23 2019

Discussion
Today's shower activity has been overperforming, and rather than
being confined to west of houston, are sprouting up across
southeast texas. These showers (along with an isolated
thunderstorm) should be expected until evening then dry up. A
strong ridge reigns over the next several days, with continued
high temperatures around or above 90 degrees and no rain chances.

As we push deeper into next week, potential for showers and storms
will gradually return as the ridge weakens.

Near term [through tonight]
A very subtle shortwave trough is evident on upper water vapor
imagery passing over the area, rotating around the fringe of a
building ridge. There's been a surprising amount of uncertainty
about its impact today, given its relative weakness and how strong
the ridge it is passing around will get in the coming days. At one
point this morning, it looked as if the ridge would win and shove
the shortwave well west of us. It turns out that's not the case.

Radar and low level water vapor imagery shows isolated to
scattered showers erupting across southeast texas this afternoon,
and have had to widen the area of pops beyond where I had them
highest west of houston. This overperforming of the extent of
showers should continue through the afternoon, but still wrap up
early this evening as the Sun GOES down.

My expectation yesterday that dewpoints would fall modestly and
allow temperatures this morning to drop... Did not pan out so well.

Despite that, i'm going to go ahead and forecast that again
tonight. So, by dawn, I have locations north of the houston metro
slipping into the lower 70s, while points coastward stay in the
middle to upper 70s.

Short term [Friday through Sunday night]
The bulk of the holiday weekend looks about as perfect as can be
for those who like their late may to resemble summer more than
spring. Midlevel ridging grows quite strong over the southeast us;
the naefs mean is above the 99th percentile and the GEFS also
exceeds its model climate. Suffice to say, there will be a heat
wave well to our east. That ridge will be strong enough that,
while we don't quite fall under the iron grip of the forecast
temps for georgia and florida, we'll likely be a solid 10 (or
more) degrees above normal, with days that more likely will
resemble june or early july than late may.

Rain potential will be virtually nil, with greater clouds late at
night and earlier in the day, scattering out in the evening. All
in all, things should pretty closely resemble drier summer days in
southeast texas - perhaps fitting as we reach the unofficial
"opening" of summer.

Long term [Monday through Thursday]
The center of the ridge may retrograde some late in the weekend
into Monday as heights bulk up ahead of an oncoming deep upper
trough in the western us. However, that should be fairly short-
lived as the trough then attempts to break down that ridge as it
drops off the rockies.

Just how successful it is in accomplishing that will likely be
pretty important in how the weather trends deeper into next week.

The longer the ridge holds on, it should not surprise to see that
warmer and drier weather will dominate. The euro had been very
strongly in this camp of late. Over on the other end, the GFS has
also been playing to stereotype, and has been more progressive.

At its extreme, it's been able to push a cold front into the area
around mid-week along with its attendant rain and storms. This
is obviously a somewhat cooler scenario as well. In the past 24
hours, both extremes have narrowed somewhat... And while i'll let
some chance pops sneak into the forecast, i'm mostly holding
things in slight chance and modestly dipping temps as a forecast
of least regret... With a slight nod to the euro given how late
we're getting into spring now. I suspect that, in the end, ridging
is going to largely win out at the end of may.

Aviation [18z TAF issuance]
MVFR rising toVFR quickly by afternoon except near the coast. Llj
over the western areas this morning should help keep it breezy
today with SE winds 13-17g18-25kt. MVFR deck developing and
expanding quickly inland this evening and continuing through mid
morning. LLJ to the west of the region tonight will keep winds up
tonight but it is a little further west and weaker so slightly
lighter winds. Nearly rinse and repeat for the tafs with
persistence.

45

Marine
Moderate onshore flow will persist through tomorrow and will opt to
maintain advisory flags and general beach hazard statement currently
in place. Coastal flood advisory will continue for now along the
gulf facing coast tonight as minor coastal flooding remains a
possibility around high tide, especially with wave run up. Although
winds and seas will relax a bit as we get into the holiday weekend,
surf will remain elevated to rough at times and can expect rip
currents to remain a concern given the increase in beach goers.

Winds seas build again early next week as the pressure gradient
tightens back up.

Climate
College station and hobby have been able to sneak one degree
under their record warm minimum temps this morning. Not the case
at bush and scholes, which are currently tied with their record
warm mins. As long as it doesn't get down to 77 78 before
midnight, respectively, another set of records for today are on
the docket. Those midnight temps may be close, so we'll have to
hold out until the day is officially done before proclaiming any
records.

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 74 91 72 92 71 10 10 0 0 0
houston (iah) 75 90 74 91 72 10 10 0 0 0
galveston (gls) 78 85 78 84 77 10 10 0 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm cdt this afternoon for the
following zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and
bolivar peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Friday for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport tx out 20 nm... Matagorda bay... Waters from
freeport to matagorda ship channel tx from 20 to 60
nm... Waters from high island to freeport tx from 20 to 60
nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 5 pm cdt this
afternoon for the following zones: galveston bay.

Near term... Luchs
short term... Luchs
long term... Luchs
aviation... 45
marine... Evans
climate... Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTOT2 1 mi41 min SE 8 G 18 81°F 81°F1015.7 hPa
GRRT2 5 mi41 min SSE 15 G 20 81°F 83°F1015 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 5 mi41 min SE 20 G 24 85°F 82°F1014.9 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 13 mi41 min SE 15 G 19 81°F 81°F1015.4 hPa
KXIH 18 mi18 min SE 21 81°F 77°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 20 mi41 min SE 18 G 21 81°F 83°F1016.4 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 21 mi33 min ESE 18 G 23 80°F 80°F1016.6 hPa80°F
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 24 mi113 min ESE 18 G 19 82°F1015 hPa (-1.1)
LUIT2 24 mi35 min SE 14 G 21 81°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 27 mi41 min ESE 14 G 17 81°F 81°F1016.1 hPa
HIST2 29 mi41 min SE 7 G 12 81°F 82°F1016.2 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 37 mi47 min ESE 13 G 19 81°F 82°F1015.7 hPa
FPST2 37 mi41 min ESE 21 G 25 80°F 83°F1014.6 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 37 mi41 min SE 9.9 G 15 82°F 82°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX5 mi61 minESE 15 G 225.00 miOvercast with Haze82°F75°F82%1016 hPa
High Island 179A (Apache Corp), LA18 mi58 minSE 207.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy81°F77°F89%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Galveston (Galveston Channel), Texas
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Galveston (Galveston Channel)
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Thu -- 01:36 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:35 AM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0-0.100.20.40.711.21.41.51.51.51.41.41.31.31.31.21.21.10.90.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Thu -- 12:27 AM CDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:15 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM CDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.9-0.20.61.31.71.91.81.61.20.90.60.30-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.8-1-1.2-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.