Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 2:03 PM   Moonset 2:09 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 312 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
This afternoon - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to east after midnight, backing to northeast late. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Saturday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, veering to southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, easing to around 5 knots late. Bay waters smooth. Sunday - East winds around 5 knots, veering to southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tuesday night - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 312 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light to occasionally moderate north. Winds will shift back around to the east and south over the weekend. Showers with isolated Thunderstorms will be possible tonight, gradually tapering off near daybreak. If any stronger cells develop with this activity, they will probably be in the gulf waters rather than the bays. Gradually strengthening south to southeast winds and rising seas around 4 to 6 ft can be expected after mid-week next week.

FXUS64 KHGX 172116 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 416 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

ain continues this afternoon in a SW to NE line from Jackson County to Liberty County. Rain, for the most part, has remained south of I- 10. Will continue to monitor the potential for some stronger and isolated severe thunderstorms along the coast (SPC has a Marginal Risk out for the coastline). So far activity has not materialized into anything more than light to occasionally moderate showers. A couple of lightning cloud flashes have occurred. Storms over South Texas this morning and the inability for the environment to fully recover from yesterday's storms may keep the severe threat at bay.

Rain should taper off tonight as the trough exits and high pressure builds in...while sunny skies would normally be appreciated after the multiple events we have had in SE Texas this spring, the high pressure will send daytime highs to above normal levels through next week. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100F on Saturday, especially along and south of I-10.

To echo the last forecaster's discussion...hundreds of thousands of people remain without power, and based on the damage to power/transmission lines this could last for days, potentially even weeks. As high pressure builds in this weekend, it will kick off a pattern of hot and dry weather. Please make sure to check in on family, friends, and neighbors (especially those who are vulnerable). If you are using a generator, make sure to operate it outdoors in a well-ventilated area! Furthermore, a few things you can do to keep your home cool include keeping widows and doors closed and closing your blinds & curtains.

Stay safe, everyone.

Adams

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The heat returns...it is imperative to take all safety precautions in the next several days. A major pattern change begins on Sunday as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over northern Mexico/Southern Plains. Still appears that temperatures will peak after Tuesday as temperatures climb near the 99th percentile of climatology per NAEFS guidance. These percentiles continue to add confidence in the forecast for a period of hot and muggy conditions.
Highs into the low to mid 90s can be expected through the week.
These temperatures are near to slightly above normal for this time of year; however, the combination of hot and humid conditions will result in heat indices in the triple digits. Upper-level ridge axis shifts to our east by mid- week as an upper trough slides over the Rockies and pushes a frontal boundary across the central Plains. Latest deterministic solutions keep most of this activity north of the area; however, continued with some slight chances as some forcing may be present due to passing weak shortwaves. The best chance at seeing precipitation look to arrive towards the end of the week with the combination of the aforementioned frontal boundary and a parade of mid-level shortwaves.

JM

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Coastal sites and UTS at VFR. All other sites experiencing either MVFR or IFR CIGs this afternoon. Rain continues to move in from South Texas, impacting primarily locations along and south of 59 & 90. Rain chances trend down this afternoon and evening with primarily VFR CIGs expected overnight. Few to scattered low to mid level clouds expected with broken skies in the upper levels.
Closer to sunrise, MVFR VSBYs will be possible for a couple of hours at northern terminals with MVFR CIGs possible at coastal terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Scattered showers with a few storms will continue to move over the bays this afternoon, before moving offshore this evening/tonight.
Light to occasionally moderate north to northeast winds this afternoon will transition to the east and then southeast through the weekend. Dry weather and light to moderate offshore winds should persist through at least mid-week. Winds and seas will gradually strengthen/rise after mid-week as different disturbances move through.

JM

CLIMATE
Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Huntsville (UTS) got another 4.08 inches of rain yesterday, and this brings their total for the month of May to 17.94 inches (normal May rainfall is 4.03 inches) and their total for the year so far to 50.14 inches (normal yearly rainfall is 43.65 inches).

-This is now Huntsville's wettest May on record (previous record was 14.93 inches in 2015).
-This is now Huntsville's 2nd wettest month on record (wettest month on record is 21.35 inches set in August 2017).
-This is now Huntsville's 9th wettest year on record (wettest year is 66.76 inches in 2015).

Huntsville's records date back to 4/1/1998.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 66 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 90 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 72 83 74 83 / 30 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Galveston Pier 21, Galveston Channel, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Fri -- 02:39 AM CDT     -0.11 knots Min Ebb
Fri -- 03:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM CDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:14 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:53 PM CDT     1.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:19 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:30 PM CDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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