Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Texas City, TX
May 14, 2024 7:32 PM CDT (00:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 11:18 AM Moonset 12:38 AM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 126 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to east after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to southeast late. Bay waters smooth, rising to smooth to slightly choppy late.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, easing to slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to south after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 126 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
light north to northwest winds and low seas will persist throughout most of the day. Winds will transition to the south and southeast tonight and Wednesday, and this onshore flow will gradually strengthen and persist until another cold front moves off the coast at the end of the week. Caution flags might be needed for the strengthening winds and building seas. Our next chance of rain begins late Wednesday night and continues into the day on Friday. Drier weather can be expected over the weekend and into early next week.
light north to northwest winds and low seas will persist throughout most of the day. Winds will transition to the south and southeast tonight and Wednesday, and this onshore flow will gradually strengthen and persist until another cold front moves off the coast at the end of the week. Caution flags might be needed for the strengthening winds and building seas. Our next chance of rain begins late Wednesday night and continues into the day on Friday. Drier weather can be expected over the weekend and into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 142334 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 634 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Looking at a quiet period of weather through Wednesday - which seems rare this Spring. We got surface high pressure moving overhead today and ridging building aloft - which is the perfect combination for drier conditions. Overnight temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s for most of the area, and then low 70s along the immediate coast. Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than today, getting into the mid to upper 80s, thanks to the ridge building aloft and a more southeasterly component of the wind. Overnight lows Wednesday night will be in the mid 60s to low 70s for most of the area thanks to the onshore flow.
Lingering surface moisture may lead to some patchy fog tonight, but not looking as widespread nor as dense as this morning. Wednesday will start out mostly clear, but we will start to see an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon/evening with some isolated showers possible late Wednesday night.
The quiet period quickly ends on Thursday, but more on that in the Long Term below.
Fowler
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Thursday is National Barbecue Day, but it won't exactly be the best day to be outside on the grill as we're expecting yet another heavy rainfall event for southeast Texas. Going into Thursday, an upper level trough will push through the southwestern CONUS and send a few shortwaves out ahead of it. An area of surface low pressure develops on Wednesday in New Mexico and drifts eastward into west Texas on Thursday and places southeast Texas in the warm sector. This leads to a surge of deeper moisture being advected into the area from the Gulf with PW values reaching 2+" (MAX percentile: ~2.09") along with increasing instability (especially west of I-45). There is sufficient deep layer shear coupled with a 30-40 kt LLJ developing west of I-45 on Thursday morning. Capping is also a bit weaker the further north and west you go on Thursday, so it's not surprising that areas north of I-10 and west of I-45 have a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5)
on Thursday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
elsewhere. While there is a severe threat, the main concern is going to be heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.
Let's dive more into that.
Well above 90th percentile PW values (90th percentile: ~1.76"), multiple sources of lift (LLJ, PVA, diffluence aloft), and plentiful instability will all be in place, but there are a few questions that remain. The main one is when exactly is the heavy rain threat going to be? If you take a look at the Euro/Canadian, then the main window for heavy rain is Thursday/Thursday night...but the GFS/NAM show the main window being Friday/Friday night. This is due to weak synoptic forcing at the surface, so this is likely to be mesoscale driven by outflow boundaries. There will be an MCS pushing through southeast Texas at some point on either Thursday or Friday, that looks to be certain. Another question is if we get the MCS on Thursday will the environment be too worked over to get another round of heavy rain on Friday when the main trough axis and a weak frontal boundary push through. That answer will become a bit more clear as we get closer to the end of the work week. All that being said, there continues to be good agreement on the higher rainfall totals occuring north of I-10 and east of I-45...this is unfortunately the area that has seen the bulk of the rainfall throughout the recent heavy rain events as well.
Minor to major river flooding is ongoing in this area along with soil moisture remaining saturated, so it wouldn't take long for additional heavy rain to become runoff and cause additional responses along area rivers/creeks. The latest forecast for rainfall totals remains 2-4" north of I-10 with isolated higher amounts.
These higher amounts still look to occur across the Piney Woods region. WPC has outlined areas north of I-10 in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall (level 3 out of 4) for Thursday and a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) elsewhere. There has been some chatter from WPC about the potential of a high risk (level 4 out of 4) in future forecasts if model consensus continues to point towards the rainfall bullseye occuring in the Piney Woods area. Hopefully that paints the full picture of what we're confident in and what we're not so confident in as of today. A Flood Watch will likely be needed during this time period.
The good news is that the forecast for the weekend and beyond continues to look dry as we transition into a warmer pattern.
Surface high pressure builds in on Saturday along with drier air behind the passage of a weak frontal boundary. Ridging aloft builds in late Saturday leading to a warming trend that takes us into early next week. We start off in the upper 80s/low 90s on Saturday and become solidly in the low 90s Sunday onward. This looks to be a much needed extended period of quiet weather to allow for things to dry out a bit. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s/low 100s next week though. Let's hope the heat can keep the mosquitos at bay at least in the daytime!
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Clear skies and light, variable winds can be expected across SE Texas tonight. Patchy fog could develop during the early morning hours of Wednesday at some TAF sites, possibly bringing MVFR or lower VIS. All fog should burn off after sunrise, with winds strengthening and becoming southeasterly heading into the afternoon.
03
MARINE
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Light northwesterly winds will prevail through the afternoon before shifting back to southeasterly by this evening. Wind speeds begin to increase late Wednesday and will likely prompt the issuance of caution flags as seas subsequently begin to build as well. The elevated winds persist into Thursday as chances for showers/storms return and persists into Friday. Winds become a bit lighter heading into the weekend, and become briefly northeasterly following a weak frontal boundary pushing through early Saturday morning. Winds transition back to southeasterly by late Saturday as we trend towards a warmer and drier pattern.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of Tuesday afternoon):
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage (forecast)
- Trinity River (Crockett): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate Flood Stage - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor Flood Stage - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor Flood Stage - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Flood Stage - Menard Creek (Rye): Minor Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
The next rounds of heavy rain are expected on Thursday/Friday.
Soils are already saturated from the previous rounds of rainfall in the Piney Woods and this is where we expect the highest rainfall totals once again, so we could see the rain become runoff fairly quickly and caused additional responses along area rivers/creeks.
Please be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast information.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 63 88 67 83 / 0 0 20 80 Houston (IAH) 65 89 69 83 / 0 0 20 70 Galveston (GLS) 73 83 75 82 / 0 0 10 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 634 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Looking at a quiet period of weather through Wednesday - which seems rare this Spring. We got surface high pressure moving overhead today and ridging building aloft - which is the perfect combination for drier conditions. Overnight temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s for most of the area, and then low 70s along the immediate coast. Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than today, getting into the mid to upper 80s, thanks to the ridge building aloft and a more southeasterly component of the wind. Overnight lows Wednesday night will be in the mid 60s to low 70s for most of the area thanks to the onshore flow.
Lingering surface moisture may lead to some patchy fog tonight, but not looking as widespread nor as dense as this morning. Wednesday will start out mostly clear, but we will start to see an increase in cloud cover through the afternoon/evening with some isolated showers possible late Wednesday night.
The quiet period quickly ends on Thursday, but more on that in the Long Term below.
Fowler
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Thursday is National Barbecue Day, but it won't exactly be the best day to be outside on the grill as we're expecting yet another heavy rainfall event for southeast Texas. Going into Thursday, an upper level trough will push through the southwestern CONUS and send a few shortwaves out ahead of it. An area of surface low pressure develops on Wednesday in New Mexico and drifts eastward into west Texas on Thursday and places southeast Texas in the warm sector. This leads to a surge of deeper moisture being advected into the area from the Gulf with PW values reaching 2+" (MAX percentile: ~2.09") along with increasing instability (especially west of I-45). There is sufficient deep layer shear coupled with a 30-40 kt LLJ developing west of I-45 on Thursday morning. Capping is also a bit weaker the further north and west you go on Thursday, so it's not surprising that areas north of I-10 and west of I-45 have a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5)
on Thursday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
elsewhere. While there is a severe threat, the main concern is going to be heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.
Let's dive more into that.
Well above 90th percentile PW values (90th percentile: ~1.76"), multiple sources of lift (LLJ, PVA, diffluence aloft), and plentiful instability will all be in place, but there are a few questions that remain. The main one is when exactly is the heavy rain threat going to be? If you take a look at the Euro/Canadian, then the main window for heavy rain is Thursday/Thursday night...but the GFS/NAM show the main window being Friday/Friday night. This is due to weak synoptic forcing at the surface, so this is likely to be mesoscale driven by outflow boundaries. There will be an MCS pushing through southeast Texas at some point on either Thursday or Friday, that looks to be certain. Another question is if we get the MCS on Thursday will the environment be too worked over to get another round of heavy rain on Friday when the main trough axis and a weak frontal boundary push through. That answer will become a bit more clear as we get closer to the end of the work week. All that being said, there continues to be good agreement on the higher rainfall totals occuring north of I-10 and east of I-45...this is unfortunately the area that has seen the bulk of the rainfall throughout the recent heavy rain events as well.
Minor to major river flooding is ongoing in this area along with soil moisture remaining saturated, so it wouldn't take long for additional heavy rain to become runoff and cause additional responses along area rivers/creeks. The latest forecast for rainfall totals remains 2-4" north of I-10 with isolated higher amounts.
These higher amounts still look to occur across the Piney Woods region. WPC has outlined areas north of I-10 in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall (level 3 out of 4) for Thursday and a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) elsewhere. There has been some chatter from WPC about the potential of a high risk (level 4 out of 4) in future forecasts if model consensus continues to point towards the rainfall bullseye occuring in the Piney Woods area. Hopefully that paints the full picture of what we're confident in and what we're not so confident in as of today. A Flood Watch will likely be needed during this time period.
The good news is that the forecast for the weekend and beyond continues to look dry as we transition into a warmer pattern.
Surface high pressure builds in on Saturday along with drier air behind the passage of a weak frontal boundary. Ridging aloft builds in late Saturday leading to a warming trend that takes us into early next week. We start off in the upper 80s/low 90s on Saturday and become solidly in the low 90s Sunday onward. This looks to be a much needed extended period of quiet weather to allow for things to dry out a bit. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s/low 100s next week though. Let's hope the heat can keep the mosquitos at bay at least in the daytime!
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Clear skies and light, variable winds can be expected across SE Texas tonight. Patchy fog could develop during the early morning hours of Wednesday at some TAF sites, possibly bringing MVFR or lower VIS. All fog should burn off after sunrise, with winds strengthening and becoming southeasterly heading into the afternoon.
03
MARINE
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Light northwesterly winds will prevail through the afternoon before shifting back to southeasterly by this evening. Wind speeds begin to increase late Wednesday and will likely prompt the issuance of caution flags as seas subsequently begin to build as well. The elevated winds persist into Thursday as chances for showers/storms return and persists into Friday. Winds become a bit lighter heading into the weekend, and become briefly northeasterly following a weak frontal boundary pushing through early Saturday morning. Winds transition back to southeasterly by late Saturday as we trend towards a warmer and drier pattern.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of Tuesday afternoon):
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage (forecast)
- Trinity River (Crockett): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate Flood Stage - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor Flood Stage - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor Flood Stage - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor Flood Stage - Menard Creek (Rye): Minor Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor Flood Stage (forecast)
The next rounds of heavy rain are expected on Thursday/Friday.
Soils are already saturated from the previous rounds of rainfall in the Piney Woods and this is where we expect the highest rainfall totals once again, so we could see the rain become runoff fairly quickly and caused additional responses along area rivers/creeks.
Please be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast information.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 63 88 67 83 / 0 0 20 80 Houston (IAH) 65 89 69 83 / 0 0 20 70 Galveston (GLS) 73 83 75 82 / 0 0 10 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 0 mi | 74 min | N 8G | 85°F | 79°F | 29.73 | ||
| GTOT2 | 5 mi | 74 min | NNE 5.1G | 85°F | 80°F | 29.73 | ||
| GRRT2 | 10 mi | 74 min | W 5.1G | 87°F | 80°F | 29.74 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 13 mi | 74 min | NNW 5.1G | 89°F | 78°F | 29.75 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 16 mi | 74 min | NW 5.1G | 84°F | 85°F | 29.75 | ||
| KGVW | 18 mi | 62 min | 0 | |||||
| 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX | 19 mi | 62 min | S 3.9G | 81°F | 79°F | 29.77 | 72°F | |
| HIST2 | 24 mi | 74 min | WNW 9.9G | 85°F | 85°F | 29.76 | ||
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 26 mi | 74 min | WNW 5.1G | 85°F | 80°F | 29.75 | ||
| LUIT2 | 29 mi | 74 min | NW 9.9G | 86°F | 82°F | 29.76 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 38 mi | 74 min | NNW 6G | 88°F | 29.74 | |||
| FPST2 | 42 mi | 74 min | NNW 8G | 87°F | 80°F | 29.75 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX | 9 sm | 40 min | NE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 64°F | 52% | 29.78 |
Galveston Bay entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:42 AM CDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM CDT 2.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:18 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:42 AM CDT 0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:17 PM CDT 2.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:18 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Galveston Bay entrance, south jetty, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.6 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Galveston Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:42 AM CDT -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:41 AM CDT 1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:18 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:20 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM CDT -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:29 PM CDT -0.67 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:42 AM CDT -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:26 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:41 AM CDT 1.91 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:18 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:20 PM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM CDT -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:29 PM CDT -0.67 knots Min Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.9 |
| 1 am |
| -2.1 |
| 2 am |
| -2.2 |
| 3 am |
| -2.2 |
| 4 am |
| -2.1 |
| 5 am |
| -1.7 |
| 6 am |
| -1.2 |
| 7 am |
| -0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.9 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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