Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Patterson, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:00PM Saturday February 24, 2018 4:24 AM CST (10:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:41PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 407 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect through this evening...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Areas of fog in the morning.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 407 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis.. A long fetch of south to southeast winds will continue to drive warm and moist air over the relatively cooler shelf waters of the northwest gulf. This will maintain sea fog over the nearshore coastal waters and coastal lakes and bays through at least midday Saturday. South winds will increase and become gusty Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. A shortwave trof advancing through the plains will push this cold front into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning where it is expected to stall. Showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the front and continue into Sunday before coming to an end early Monday as a second shortwave trof advances through. A brief period of light to modest offshore flow will prevail Monday with winds turning east and then southeast on Tuesday through the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patterson, LA
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location: 29.37, -91.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 241015
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
415 am cst Sat feb 24 2018

Discussion
A few areas of patchy light fog being observed inland this morning
mainly across acadiana. Meanwhile areas of dense sea fog continue
to plague the near shore coastal waters and the immediate
coastline. Guidance is not particularly enthusiastic about
widespread development of inland fog this morning and the lack of
significant development thus far seems to corroborate this
analysis. That said, other than some slightly elevated winds,
there really isn't much to inhibit fog development so I did opt
to keep patchy fog wording in the forecast area wide until 15z to
account for the possibility of fog development in areas where
winds are a bit lighter.

A frontal boundary extends from just east of dallas southwest to
waco texas this morning. As this front slowly progresses east
today, the tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing
winds which should serve to help erode the marine fog along the
coast and offshore. Further inland, sustained winds of 15 to 20
knots with gusts to 30 can be expected with the strongest winds
occurring this afternoon.

The front will move into the area late this evening before
stalling resulting in a potentially long duration heavy rain
event with low end severe potential on top. On the rainfall side
of things, the official forecast will indicate QPF totals of
around 1.5 inches, but some guidance is going as high as 3 inches
and this will certainly be possible in some areas. Given that the
front will be stalled over the area for around 24 hours, it is
reasonable to assume that a precip training situation could set up
resulting in totals considerably higher.

On the severe side of things, the overall severe potential across
our area remains low as the best thermodynamics will remain to the
north across north louisiana and southern arkansas. Anemic lapse
rates will be the big inhibiting factor locally. However,
forecast soundings do indicate favorable low level directional and
speed shear so a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
with the highest probability of occurrence being this evening
through early Sunday morning. The storm prediction center has the
area highlighted in a slight risk for severe weather.

The severe weather threat decreases Sunday although the shower and
thunderstorm activity will not. The front will finally be shunted
off to the east by a second upper trough swinging through the
region Sunday night into early Monday. This second boundary will
be accompanied by some drier and cooler air which will filter into
the area Monday providing a brief, but welcome reprieve from the
"may is the new february" pattern we've been in the last couple
of weeks. Even with the relatively cooler air, both high and low
temperatures will still be about 10 degrees above normals for this
time of year.

Surface high pressure slides to the east by early Tuesday turning
winds back out of the south ahead of the next frontal boundary
progged to move through the area Thursday. This front, if the long
range guidance is to be believed, will usher in an airmass that
will provide us with the first dry weekend we've seen in several
weeks.

Jones

Marine
A long fetch of south to southeast winds will continue to drive
warm and moist air over the relatively cooler shelf waters of the
northwest gulf. This will maintain sea fog over the nearshore
coastal waters and coastal lakes and bays through at least midday
Saturday. South winds will increase and become gusty Saturday
ahead of an approaching cold front. A shortwave trof advancing
through the plains will push this cold front into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning where it is expected to stall.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front and continue
into Sunday before coming to an end early Monday as a second
shortwave trof advances through. A brief period of light to modest
offshore flow will prevail Monday with winds turning east and
then southeast on Tuesday through the end of the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 79 57 62 49 30 80 80 80
lch 79 65 69 57 30 90 80 80
lft 80 67 72 61 20 70 80 90
bpt 79 64 69 55 30 90 80 70

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution through this evening for gmz450-452-
455-470-472-475.

Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for gmz430-432-450-452.

Small craft exercise caution from noon cst today through this
afternoon for gmz430-432-435.

Public... 66


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EINL1 0 mi54 min S 16 G 17 71°F 54°F1017.6 hPa70°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 6 mi54 min SE 6 G 8.9 72°F 56°F1018.2 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 22 mi54 min SSE 5.1 G 7 72°F 53°F1018.4 hPa
KSCF 31 mi109 min SSE 14 72°F 72°F
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 36 mi144 min 13 G 16 78°F

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Point, LA15 mi31 minSE 5 mi69°F68°F96%1017.5 hPa
Patterson Memorial, LA24 mi28 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast72°F71°F97%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from P92 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E3E3SE44SE4SE4S444553SE443SE44S36SE5SE5SE4SE5
1 day agoSE5SE4SE4SE4SE6SE9SE10
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2 days agoSE7SE8SE7SE9SE9SE11SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Eugene Island, Louisiana
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Eugene Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:43 AM CST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:26 PM CST     1.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.3-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.10.10.50.81.11.31.41.51.51.51.41.41.41.41.31.31.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Lawma, Amerada Pass, Louisiana
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Lawma
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:58 AM CST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:03 PM CST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.40.20.1-0-000.20.40.71.11.31.51.51.51.41.31.21.21.21.21.11.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.