Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Patterson, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:29PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 11:53 AM CDT (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:59AMMoonset 5:14PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 940 Am Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 940 Am Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will shift eastward today resulting in more of a easterly wind flow across the coastal waters. These winds will increase late in the day into Thursday as the gradient tightens over the gulf. More of moderate southeast flow will be noted at the end of the week into Saturday as the high moves further off to the northeast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Patterson, LA
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location: 29.37, -91.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 181449
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
949 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017

Discussion
Clear skies this morning across the gulf coast states as ridging
aloft and elongated sfc high that extends from the atlantic
seaboard acrs the appalachian mnts and into texas dominates the
tdy wx.

Temps a bit warmer as the gradual warmup has taken hold. Current
zones look fine.

K. Kuyper

Prev discussion issued 628 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
discussion...

18 12z TAF issuance.

Aviation...

sfc high pres continues to ridge swwd over the area, providing
light east to northeast winds. The dry airmass in place will
result inVFR skc conditions at TAF sites through tonight, while winds
will veer slightly east to southeast around 5 kt during the day
before bcmg lt vrbl tonight.

24
prev discussion... Issued 335 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
synopsis...

a surface high is centered over the mid-atlantic states ridging
down into the forecast area helping to cut off the gulf moisture
and keep a drier continental air mass in place. This is resulting
in cool conditions this early morning with temperatures in the
upper 40s to mid 50s away from the coast. Temperatures are in the
lower 60s right along the coast modified by the gulf waters.

Rua
discussion...

the surface high will remain generally over the mid-atlantic
states for the next couple of days. This combined with a ridge
aloft will keep fair conditions in place. Air mass will gradually
modify as wind flow in the low levels becomes more easterly and
southeasterly.

By the end of the week the surface high will be centered further
to the northeast, allowing a more southerly fetch off the gulf of
mexico and thus increasing low level moisture and humidity. The
upper level ridge will also move further to the east over the
eastern gulf of mexico, and allow a short wave to approach the
forecast area. Therefore, with more lift and moisture, showers and
a few storms will be back in the forecast for this day and
continue into Saturday as the upper level trough feature hangs
around to combine with moisture and daytime heating.

Guidance begins to diverge some on Sunday into the Monday time
period. The general theme is a cold front will enter the forecast
area on Sunday afternoon. Decent moisture return is seen ahead of
the front with precipitable water values increasing to over 1.80
inches. Therefore, a good bet for showers and storms on Sunday as
the frontal lift interacts with increasing gulf moisture.

Ecmwf members are more progressive and moving the front through
by Sunday night. Whereas the GFS members only slowly move the
front through the forecast area with it lingering into Monday as a
cut-off upper level low feature develops over the region.

Instability parameters and shear values are also better on the gfs
with the development of the upper level low, which could mean some
strong storms ahead of and along the frontal system, and with a
slower movement, the possibility of locally heavy rainfall.

Therefore, a lower confidence in the forecast is noted for the
Sunday-Monday time period as to when the rain will end and if any
heavy rainfall or strong storms will occur. At this point, will
have likely pops on Sunday gradually lowering on Sunday night. Have
put slightly more weight on the ECMWF for Monday. Therefore, will
only go with only a slight chance for showers on that day.

Drier conditions with cooler temperatures will move in behind the
front early next week for the end of the forecast period.

Rua
marine...

easterly winds will gradually increase later today into Thursday
as gradient between high pressure over the mid-atlantic states and
trough over the extreme southern gulf tightens. Possibility for
small craft exercise caution conditions for tonight into Thursday,
especially over the outer waters beyond 20 nm.

A cold front will move into the coastal waters either Sunday night
or Monday morning. Increasing north winds will occur behind the
front.

Rua

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 82 52 82 55 0 0 0 0
lch 83 59 84 64 0 0 0 0
lft 83 58 84 63 0 0 0 0
bpt 82 63 83 66 0 0 0 10

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EINL1 0 mi54 min E 12 G 12 72°F 75°F1021.4 hPa (+1.1)65°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 6 mi54 min NE 5.1 G 11 74°F 76°F1021.8 hPa (+0.9)
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 22 mi54 min NE 8 G 12 72°F 77°F1022.2 hPa (+0.8)
KSCF 31 mi39 min ENE 15 73°F 66°F
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 36 mi114 min 13 G 14 69°F

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Point, LA15 mi61 minVar 5 mi76°F64°F67%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from P92 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6----Calm4--33SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3333565
1 day ago6N8
G18
N7
G15
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--N7
G16
N33CalmCalmN445N334Calm3Calm44N75Calm
2 days ago3CalmCalm63E4E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN9
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N6N966N7N7
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N7

Tide / Current Tables for Eugene Island, Louisiana
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Eugene Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:24 AM CDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:01 AM CDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:04 PM CDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:14 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM CDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.92.12.22.11.81.41.1111.11.31.61.92.12.32.32.21.91.51.31.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Lawma, Amerada Pass, Louisiana
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Lawma
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:26 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:43 AM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:13 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:31 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:52 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.91.11.21.21.10.90.70.60.50.40.50.70.91.11.21.21.110.90.80.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.