Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 5:26 AM   Moonset 7:48 PM

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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 1000 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and south 1 foot at 2 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Saturday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 1000 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail through Thursday. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 080427 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1127 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Another very warm and muggy day with air temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. A few very small brief showers have popped up every now and then with maybe 0.01 of rainfall at best.

Similar conditions will continue for Wednesday into the day on Thursday, so A/C units will be getting plenty of work.

Forecast becomes a little more interesting for late Thursday into Thursday night. The upper level ridge over the forecast area will flatten out and this will allow a short wave to push a surface "cold" front into the forecast area during the evening hours and through it during the overnight. Still some question as to how far south the upper level energy and low convergence will match up to allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop and this will be reflected in the pop forecast with high numbers over central Louisiana and lower numbers along and south of I-10.

A highly anomalous Gulf air mass will be in place before the front arrives with PWAT values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range which are over the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Also, favorable speed shear, low level instability, and favorable mid level lapse rates, would allow for strong to low severe storms producing heavy rainfall. The question is just how much convection can get going.
Therefore, the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential will be on the low end. Still a couple of days away to watch this and fine tune the details.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Longterm period starts off fairly dry behind a passing cool front and under increasing heights aloft. The ridging that does build in Friday and Saturday will be weak, but combined with slightly drier airmass, no rain chances are anticipated on these days.

Surface high pressure ridge moves to the east on Sunday allowing for return flow and meager rain chances during the afternoon in western zones. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms occurs on Monday and again Tuesday with the arrival of a series of shortwave trofs over the region. Broad lift ahead of trofing will lift a warm front into coastal areas Monday; widespread convection is expected throughout the remainder of the day. Fcst CAPE profiles look very meager on globals, pointing to warm cloud layer processes and very efficient rainfall under forcing from the trof (fcst PWATs well above 1.75 inches once again). So long as precipitation remains progressive and we get a downpour that moves along quickly, flooding concerns will be lower than previous weeks. All concerned parties should monitor the forecast for any changes in the coming days.

Rain chances pick up oncemore on Tuesday with another weak shortwave pulse moving over the coastal warm front.

Thanks to rain-cooled airmass and ambient cloud cover, temperatures will be held in check through the longterm. High temps in the lower 80s are on tap.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR ceilings will again decrease to IFR in the next few hours as a gulf air mass moves inland. This moist air will keep clouds in the forecast for the rest of the TAF period. With ceiling being the main concern. Winds will remain southerly and elevated tonight with max winds speeds around 10 knots. Winds will become gusty tomorrow morning and will remain from the south.

MARINE
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure at the surface off the southeast US coast will ridge into the coastal waters over the next couple of days, and this will allow light to moderate onshore flow with mainly low to modest seas to continue.

Late Thursday, a surface front will move through the coastal waters with a few showers or storms. A moderate offshore flow will then develop behind the front for Friday into the weekend.

Rua

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 72 90 72 / 10 0 0 10 LCH 83 74 86 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 88 76 88 76 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 85 75 87 75 / 10 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Eugene Island
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Wed -- 06:12 AM CDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:17 AM CDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:08 PM CDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:47 PM CDT     Moonset
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