Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 3:36 AM   Moonset 4:19 PM

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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 359 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 3 seconds. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 359 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will develop through the day before diminishing this evening with rain chances remaining limited thereafter through the week.

FXUS64 KLCH 051132 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 632 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broken line of convection has developed across the region this morning in what will be the first wave of convection associated with another upper level disturbance traversing the region today.
CAMS guidance was actually quite consistent in the development of this activity and continues to be in good agreement on another MCS pushing through the area later today. With most of the region still very saturated from rainfall over the last several days, southeast Texas and parts of western Louisiana are particularly susceptible to flash flooding resulting from high rainfall rates.
No changes were made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch this morning that covers Southeast Texas and a Flash Flood Warning has already been issued for Tyler county due to the heavy rain already observed. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have again developed this morning thanks to light winds and very wet soils.

The MCS is expected to clear the area by early this evening with precip largely ending by sunset. Surface winds overnight will be marginally light enough for the development of some patchy fog.
Monday is looking somewhat drier. However, another weak disturbance is being picked up by most guidance and while this one isn't nearly as strong as the one moving across the region today, it looks like it will have enough moisture with it to initialize isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection tomorrow.

Some drier air and zonal flow aloft will finally offer a break from convection Tuesday with afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s beneath the clearer skies.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The warming trend continues into Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region which will yield apparent temperatures close to 100 across parts of central Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas. The next, thankfully low, chance of rain looks to come Thursday into Thursday night with the passage of a late season cold front that looks to bring some noticeably cooler, drier air by next weekend.
Long range temperatures have lows down into the mid 50s across central Louisiana and lower 60s to just off the immediate coastline. This may be our last gasp of spring before the notorious gulf coast summer kicks into high gear.

Jones

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with a passing upper level disturbance will continue to develop and move across the region through much of the day. A few of these storms will have the potential to become severe with strong winds and visibility reducing heavy rainfall. Storms are expected to become less numerous through the afternoon with activity largely coming to an end by sunset. Away from storms MVFR ceilings will prevail and this will continue through the night. Patchy light fog will again be possible after 05Z where winds become light enough to support it.

Jones

MARINE
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day before diminishing this evening with rain chances remaining limited thereafter through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 66 85 70 / 80 20 30 0 LCH 81 70 83 73 / 60 20 20 0 LFT 85 72 86 75 / 50 20 20 0 BPT 82 71 84 73 / 70 20 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516- 615-616.

GM...None.

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Eugene Island
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Sun -- 02:34 AM CDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM CDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:56 PM CDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 PM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eugene Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Lawma, Amerada Pass, Louisiana, Tide feet

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