Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Welaka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:52PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:46 AM EST (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 7:27PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 244 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..North winds 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Friday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Friday night..South southwest winds around 5 knots becoming northwest in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Saturday..North northwest winds around 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters smooth.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 244 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will slowly build southeastward and will be centered over our waters on Friday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing. High pressure will then gradually shift eastward into the atlantic waters this weekend to the east over the weekend, with a cold front moving eastward across our region by Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Welaka, FL
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location: 29.39, -81.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 180818
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
318 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Near term through tonight
Arctic high pressure over the gulf coast region today will move
slowly southeast toward our area tonight. Very cold start this
morning with hard freeze and wind chill values in the teens... With
full Sun will see temperatures peak in the upper 40s except lower
50s in our southern counties this afternoon. Clear skies... Light
winds and low dew points will lead to another hard freeze W of
i-95 corridor... Lighter freeze of i-95. Will hoist hard freeze
watch for tonight.

Short term Friday and Saturday
Full sunshine and rising heights will allow temps to rebound back
up close to 60 degrees on Friday. High pressure though will be
centered over our area Friday night and this will set the stage
for a second night of ideal radiational cooling conditions. Given
the situation, we favored the colder side of guidance. A light
freeze is expected for most inland locations north of a line from
jacksonville to ocala. Conditions will also be a little more
favorable for frost development.

Temperatures will continue to modify on Saturday but still just a
tad bit below normal daytime highs for this time of year. It will
remain dry on Saturday but the GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit on the
mid to upper low moving eastward through our region. The ECMWF is
slower and farther south with this feature, far enough south in
fact to draw up enough moisture out of the gulf of mexico to show
potential for a few showers across portions of northeast florida
late Saturday night into Sunday. Not totally buying this solution
given the dry airmass still in place, thus we will keep any
mention of precip out of the forecast for now. Min temps Saturday
night will remain above freezing at all locations.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Temps will continue to rebound, jumping roughly another 5 degrees
or so both Sunday and Monday, resulting in above normal conditions
both days nights. Out of respect for the ECMWF solution, we cannot
completely rule out a few showers across portions of northeast
florida on Sunday, but we will place more credence on the drier
gfs solution and leave precip out of the forecast for now.

A cold front will move through the area Monday night with shower
activity weakening as it moves through southeast georgia,
resulting in a much lesser chance of rain for portions of
northeast florida generally east of the i-75 corridor.

Temps will cool about 5 degrees each day on Tuesday and Wednesday,
returning to near normal levels by Wednesday, as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. The GFS tries to develop some
overrunning precip in our area by late Wednesday afternoon but the
ecmwf has completely backed off on this idea. The current pops,
generated from the super blend, still reflect this idea of an area
of low pressure moving eastward across central portions of the
gulf of mexico, but confidence in this happening is extremely low
and we may eventually need to remove the Wednesday pops
altogether.

Aviation Clear skies expected. 10-15 kt northerly winds early
this morning will decrease to 5-10kt in the afternoon.

Marine High pressure will build southeast toward the area
today, and over the area Friday... Leading to a decrease in
winds and seas through the upcoming weekend.

Will continue small craft advisory through mid morning nearshore
component and through the day offshore component.

Rip currents: moderate risk today.

Fire weather Critical relative humidities expected today and
again tomorrow, but prevailing winds will average at or below 10
mph and preclude the need for any red flag headlines.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 48 23 57 29 0 0 0 0
ssi 47 28 55 37 0 0 0 0
jax 49 24 60 33 0 0 0 0
sgj 49 29 57 37 0 0 0 0
gnv 50 23 60 31 0 0 0 0
ocf 51 24 61 33 0 0 0 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Hard freeze warning until 9 am est this morning for alachua-
baker-bradford-clay-coastal duval-coastal nassau-columbia-
flagler-gilchrist-hamilton-inland duval-inland nassau-
marion-putnam-st. Johns-suwannee-union.

Hard freeze watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
alachua-baker-bradford-clay-coastal duval-coastal nassau-
columbia-flagler-gilchrist-hamilton-inland duval-inland
nassau-marion-putnam-st. Johns-suwannee-union.

Wind chill advisory until 9 am est this morning for alachua-
baker-bradford-clay-coastal duval-coastal nassau-columbia-
flagler-gilchrist-hamilton-inland duval-inland nassau-
marion-putnam-st. Johns-suwannee-union.

Ga... Hard freeze warning until 9 am est this morning for appling-
atkinson-bacon-brantley-charlton-clinch-coastal camden-
coastal glynn-coffee-echols-inland camden-inland glynn-jeff
davis-pierce-ware-wayne.

Hard freeze watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
appling-atkinson-bacon-brantley-charlton-clinch-coastal
camden-coastal glynn-coffee-echols-inland camden-inland
glynn-jeff davis-pierce-ware-wayne.

Wind chill advisory until 9 am est this morning for appling-
atkinson-bacon-brantley-charlton-clinch-coastal camden-
coastal glynn-coffee-echols-inland camden-inland glynn-jeff
davis-pierce-ware-wayne.

Am... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for waters
from altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60
nm-waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20
to 60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from
20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for coastal
waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl out 20 nm.

Wolf shuler


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 28 mi122 min WNW 2.9 27°F 1031 hPa17°F
RCYF1 29 mi53 min 49°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 38 mi47 min NW 8.9 G 12 28°F 48°F1029.6 hPa (+2.0)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida
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Georgetown
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:35 AM EST     3.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:01 AM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM EST     3.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:35 PM EST     3.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:45 PM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida
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Welaka
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:22 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:00 AM EST     0.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:33 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:31 AM EST     0.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:36 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     0.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 PM EST     0.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.20.40.40.40.40.30.1000.10.10.10.20.40.50.50.40.40.20.100.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.