Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Welaka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:33 AM EST (06:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201901241000;;827390 Fzus52 Kjax 240148 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 848 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-241000- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 848 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night through Sunday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 848 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis.. A strong cold front will approach the waters tonight and move across the area Thursday morning. Gales are expected tonight into Thursday morning across the offshore waters. High pressure will then build in through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Welaka, FL
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location: 29.39, -81.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 240145
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
845 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Isolated strong to severe storms possible late tonight and
early Thursday morning...

Update
We continue to monitor a strong cold front moving into the deep
southeast u.S. With the latest radar and satellite imagery showing
more intense convection developing along and ahead of the cold
front over the past few hours. The front was analyzed from east
central al southwest to the WRN fl panhandle and into the central
gulf of mexico. Instability appears to have weakened however, but
moisture advection from the south and increased dynamics
associated with approaching mid upper level trough will bring
widespread showers with risk of thunderstorms overnight into early
Thursday morning. Relatively stable low level airmass so far
tonight with 00z jax sounding showing strong inversion at 8000 ft.

However, airmass will moisten as low and mid level winds increase
and most of the inversion should weaken during the overnight
period. Weak sfc based instability of 200-400 j kg and 0-6km bulk
shear of around 50-60 kt will support a risk of isolated severe
storms late tonight, with a damaging wind gust or an isolated
tornado possible. The forecast basically changed little for the
update, with minor adjustments for timing the precip early
Thursday morning. Total precip amounts are forecast roughly in the
0.5 to 1.5 inch range. Most of the showers and any storms will
have moved offshore by around 8-9 am Thu as the front clears the
land zones.

Aviation
Vfr looks to prevail through at least midnight except for MVFR
cigs at times at ssi. A few showers will be developing around
midnight then becoming more prevalent as the front moves into the
forecast region and brings widespread showers and embedded
t-storms. This looks to be around 07z-12z. MVFR is expected late but
a period of ifr and strong wind gusts will be possible in any of
the heavy precip. Southerly winds 10-15 knots with higher gusts
will continue through the overnight hours ahead of the cold front.

Sfc winds will shift to the west behind the front on Thursday,
andVFR CIGS are forecast by the end of the period. We included
llws at all tafs by about 05z-06z based on rap winds of 40-50 kt
around 950 mb. Latest VWP from jax and vax showed south-southeast
winds of 35 kt at 2000 ft.

Marine
Strong cold front still expected to sweep across the waters early
Thursday morning accompanied by showers and a few storms with
gusty winds. The showers and isolated t-storms will into area
waters from the west about 4 am-10 am thu. Current SCA and gale
warnings remain in effect. Little change in the latest cwf is
expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 56 60 36 54 100 30 0 0
ssi 59 65 38 54 100 70 0 0
jax 61 69 38 56 100 70 0 0
sgj 63 71 40 57 100 80 0 0
gnv 61 67 38 57 100 50 0 0
ocf 62 68 38 58 100 60 0 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 2 am est Thursday for waters from
altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20
to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 2 am to 10 am est Thursday for waters from
altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Thursday for coastal waters
from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl out 20 nm.

Shashy bricker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 28 mi108 min SSE 6 68°F 1014 hPa65°F
RCYF1 29 mi45 min 61°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 38 mi33 min S 17 G 19 63°F 61°F1012 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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Georgetown
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM EST     2.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:29 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:13 AM EST     2.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     2.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     2.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:05 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     2.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EST     2.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:25 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.52.52.52.42.42.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.52.42.42.42.42.42.42.52.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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Welaka
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EST     3.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM EST     3.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 AM EST     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:54 AM EST     3.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM EST     3.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:59 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:20 PM EST     3.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.23.23.23.43.63.63.53.53.33.23.23.23.23.23.23.33.53.63.63.53.43.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.