Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Welaka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:55PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:46 AM EDT (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:28PMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 311 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Isolated showers through the day.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds increasing to 12 seconds in the afternoon. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet after midnight. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 311 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will build offshore of the atlantic coast today, and build east of the florida peninsula Tuesday into Wednesday as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. This front will stall over the florida peninsula Thursday and Friday as strong high pressure builds again northeast of region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Welaka, FL
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location: 29.39, -81.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 150747
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
347 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
Surface high pressure will move eastward off the mid-atlantic
coast today, allowing moist southeasterly flow to prevail across
northeast florida and southeast georgia. Widely scattered showers
and a few rumbles of thunder are possible later this morning
and into the afternoon as a developing cumulus fields interacts
with the sea breezes. Best chances are later in the
afternoon early evening across southeast georgia. High
temperatures today will range from the low 90s inland and mid to
upper 80s likely along the coast, and could reach or break record
high temperatures at a few locations. We've seen some patchy fog
the past few mornings, but dense fog is a little more likely
tonight and early Tuesday morning as forecast soundings suggest a
saturated boundary layer with clearing skies and continued light
winds. Low temperatures return to the low to mid 70s for most
locations. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
again on Tuesday as surface flow is light and variable, and
seabreezes drive diurnal convection. High temperatures will be
near record high temperatures again as some sites are a few
degrees warmer than today - low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s
at the beaches.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
Medium range guidance is in agreement that mid-level height
anomalies will dominate the forecast through Friday before the
pattern breaks down next weekend. Temperatures will remain above
normal on Wednesday and near record highs again with low to mid
90s expected again across the area. A weak front will approach
from the northwest and increase pops through Thursday while
bringing temperatures down closer to seasonal averages. The
forecast changes dramatically next weekend as the GFS and ecmwf
ensemble guidance are in good agreement that mid-level cyclonic
flow will deepen across the east coast. A strong cold front with
showers and thunderstorms will move through the forecast area
Saturday evening Sunday morning. Low temperatures Monday morning
could fall into the upper 40s across inland southeast georgia, and
low to mid 50s across inland locations in north central florida.

Aviation
Ese winds have increased low level moisture. Stratocumulus from
the atlantic will produce tempo MVFR CIGS early this morning with
isolated showers possible along the coast at sgj... Ssi... Crg.VFR
conditions expected to prevail at all sites after 14z.

Marine
High pressure centered across the mid-atlantic will drift
southward and weaken today. A weak boundary may continue to
trigger only isolated showers and perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm as it lifts northward over the georgia waters on
Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure center will build to the
north on Thursday, which will push a weakening cold front through
our waters. A period of small craft advisory level winds and seas
will be possible on Thursday and Thursday night, especially
offshore, with caution conditions more likely near shore. Winds
and seas will slowly subside by late Friday as high pressure
weakens and shifts off the mid-atlantic coast.

Rip currents: moderate risk at northeast florida beaches today.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 90 71 91 71 20 10 20 20
ssi 86 74 87 74 20 10 10 20
jax 88 72 90 73 20 10 10 10
sgj 87 72 88 72 20 10 10 10
gnv 92 71 92 71 20 10 10 10
ocf 92 71 93 71 20 10 10 10

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Elsenheimer zibura


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 28 mi61 min ESE 2.9 80°F 1020 hPa75°F
RCYF1 29 mi28 min 80°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 38 mi46 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 81°F 81°F1019.2 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida (4)
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Georgetown
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT     2.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:13 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:46 AM EDT     2.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:45 PM EDT     2.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:08 PM EDT     2.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.122.12.12.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (2)
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Welaka
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT     3.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:49 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     3.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     3.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:43 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:53 PM EDT     3.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.33.33.33.33.23.23.43.53.53.43.43.33.23.23.33.33.23.23.33.53.53.53.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.