Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:21PM Friday February 23, 2018 3:38 PM EST (20:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:06PMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 215 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 215 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will be northeast of the region through tonight, then to the east for Saturday and Sunday. The high will sink further south Monday, as a cold front crosses the region from the northwest. High pressure will build to the north Tuesday, then to the northeast mid week. Another cold front is expected later in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL
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location: 29.4, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 232000
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
300 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Near record high temperatures through the weekend...

Near term through Saturday ...

moist southeast flow will continue to produce cumulus clouds this
afternoon, along with a few showers. The clouds will dissipate this
evening, with the loss of daytime heating. With low level moisture
persisting, fog and stratus are expected to develop overnight, with
dense fog possible into Saturday morning. In addition, a few showers
will be a possibility Saturday morning, as moisture advects in from
the atlantic. Clouds are expected to dissipate Saturday afternoon,
with a trend toward sunshine. Temperatures will continue above
normal this period.

Short term Saturday night through Monday...

sat night and Sunday... Deep south to southwest flow expected ahead
of the approaching large trough centered over central conus.

Isolated showers possible across parts of northeast fl Saturday
night but otherwise dry conditions with substantial dry air
above a subsidence inversion around 5000-8000 ft. Shortwave
energy shifting northeast on east side of large trough will help
drive moisture and cold front eastward across the southeast states
on Sunday. Some deeper moisture ahead of the front moves into
southeast ga which may help develop a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm though instability looks weak with CAPE values of
about 600 j kg or less. Warm overnight lows in the 60s Saturday
night with record highs appearing likely Sunday pushing through
the mid 80s... With a couple of upper 80s reports not out of the
question.

Both GFS and ecwmf bring cold front and wave of low pressure into
southern ga Sunday night accompanied by showers and a possible
thunderstorm. Best lift and moisture still remain just to the west
of our northwest zones 12z Monday. Warm overnight lows in the
lower to mid 60s due to southwest flow and increased clouds.

Monday... We ramp up pops to 40-60 percent in southeast ga and
20-40 percent across northeast fl as the front pushes into
southeast ga and the central fl panhandle. Not much instability to
work with but a few storms are possible but prior dry air aloft
and weak lapse rates will likely not encourage strong updrafts.

Weak front continues to sag southeastward Monday night and at
least a few showers expected. High temps on Monday will be
tempered by increased clouds and precip with 70s anticipated in
southeast ga and upper 70s to lower 80s in northeast fl.

Long term Tuesday through Friday...

front drops southward into central fl by Tuesday aftn as sfc high
pressure builds north of the area and expect lowering chances
with just isolated showers over SRN most zones first portion of
the day. Highs drop back into the 70s Tuesday so still a little
above normal for late february.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Weak cold front initially south of
the area will move back as a warm front with increasing clouds
again and low chance of showers. Some timing differences in gfs
and ECMWF with frontal positions so fairly low confidence in the
specifics of the forecast but overall warmer conditions look
likely again Wed into Thu as forecast area returns in the warm
sector ahead of the next cold front. Possible cold frontal passage
expected by Thursday night-early Friday time frame but details
still quite uncertain at this time frame.

Aviation
Cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening. Fog and stratus are
expected to develop overnight, and continue early Saturday morning,
with ifr and lower conditions anticipated.

Marine
High pressure will be northeast of the region through tonight, then
to the east for Saturday and Sunday. The high will sink further
south Monday, as a cold front crosses the region from the northwest.

High pressure will build to the north Tuesday, then to the northeast
mid week. Another cold front is expected later in the week.

Rip currents: moderate risk Saturday.

Climate
Record high maximum temps for feb 23rd...

jax 85 1962... Gnv 87 1962... Amg 82 2012... Ssi 82 2012
record high minimum temps for feb 23rd...

jax 67 1962... Gnv 66 1979... Amg 67 2012... Ssi 65 2012
record high maximum temps for feb 24th...

jax 88 1962... Gnv 88 1962... Amg 85 2012... Ssi 84 2012
record high maximum temps for feb 25th...

jax 85 2001... Gnv 85 1962... Amg 83 2001... Ssi 80 2017
all-time record high maximum temps for the month of february...

jax 88 on 02-26-1962
gnv 88 on 02-26-1971
amg 87 on 02-21-2018
ssi 85 on 02-28-1962
all-time record high minimum temps for the month of february...

jax 70 on 02-22-1961
gnv 70 on 02-28-1929
amg 69 on 02-21-2018
ssi 66 on 02-21-2018

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 63 81 62 84 10 0 0 30
ssi 63 71 63 79 20 20 10 10
jax 62 80 64 84 20 20 10 20
sgj 64 77 66 82 20 20 10 20
gnv 62 82 64 85 20 10 10 10
ocf 62 83 65 85 10 20 20 10

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

23 shashy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 19 mi114 min E 6 76°F 1030 hPa68°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 33 mi39 min E 6 G 6 70°F 69°F1027.1 hPa (-2.5)
RCYF1 37 mi51 min 73°F
41117 41 mi47 min 65°F4 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi49 minSE 127.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F62°F61%1026.7 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL15 mi46 minE 9 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F62%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
G15
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NW10NW10NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
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Fri -- 12:27 AM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:58 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:27 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:53 PM EST     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
000.20.40.60.80.90.90.90.70.50.30.20.20.20.30.50.70.80.80.80.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:09 AM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:42 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     0.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.100.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.40.50.60.60.50.40.30.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.