Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olmos Park, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday May 27, 2017 10:41 AM CDT (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:34AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmos Park, TX
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location: 29.4, -98.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 271129
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
629 am cdt Sat may 27 2017

Aviation
MVFR ceilings and some patchy drizzle continues at the area airports
and should continue to see these restrictions until the early
afternoon hours beforeVFR returns. Southerly winds will be in the 10
to 15 knot range for the most part. Another round of MVFR stratus is
likely tomorrow night.

Prev discussion issued 351 am cdt Sat may 27 2017
short term (today through Sunday)...

rich low level moisture and favorable isentropic lifting in the
lowest 100 mb early this morning will result in drizzle mist for the
eastern half of the cwa. Rap moves this lifting area north around 12z
and should reduce the drizzle but many areas will likely wake up to
wet ground this morning.

Moving through the rest of the day, a dry line will set up to the
west again this afternoon. While dewpoints in the 70s, a dry line in
the west, and a continued southerly fetch typically is an eyebrow
raiser this time of the year for storm development, a stout cap at
around 800mb doesn't look to budge as evidenced in rap forecast
soundings over austin, san antonio, and the hill country. Farther
west near del rio, much weaker capping is forecast but surface
moisture will be a bit less impressive which results in convective
temps of 101+ this afternoon. Looks like the best shot at any storms
for the CWA this afternoon will be if any del burro supercells can
get going. There are some indications this may occur due to an
easterly shift to the low level wind field this afternoon which may
be enough to get convection firing over mexico. Chances of these
cells crossing the border look slim though. Left slight pops out
there for now. Also, forecast heat indices may reach into the upper
100s this afternoon, but opted against a heat advisory at the moment
as values looked to be just below criteria. Will need to watch this
closely this afternoon.

Later tonight, an approaching cold front will be the focus for
lifting and perhaps some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning
as it approaches the northern periphery of the cwa. However, a weak
shortwave disturbance is progged to move across the area Sunday
afternoon and amplify lift over our very moist atmosphere. Ttu-wrf
aggressively convects tomorrow afternoon along a line from sonora to
lampasas and then shifts the activity southeast into south central
texas. With GFS pwat 1.7+" tomorrow afternoon across the area and
3000+ j kg for surface based parcels to tap into as the convection
produces outflow and shifts southeast, should see heavy rainfall
rates and likely a straight line wind and hail threat. We are
currently slight risked for Sunday for 2 3 of the area.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)...

a stalled front will be positioned north of the CWA Monday which will
keep south central texas in the moist regime it's been in. Weak low
level flow out of the east should limit potential for heavy rainfall
Monday beyond the previous night's complex. But having said that,
both the GFS and ECMWF produce another 1 2 inch to inch of rainfall
over the southern half of the cwa, likely due to an uncapped unstable
atmosphere. If remnant outflow boundaries are present Monday, they
would be the focus for potential heavy rainfall, but for now, have
kept QPF values generally conservative due to the unfavorable wind
field being advertised.

The h5 pattern agreement begins to diverge beginning mid week as
either weak ridging (gfs) or weak troughing (ecmwf) sets up across
the region. The troughing solution would prove to the rainiest as
continued broad upper level lifting allow for rain chances through
the next weekend. GFS solutions keep the majority of the qpf
generation north and west of the cwa, closer to the main shortwave it
advertises set up over the rockies. As a result, opted to broad brush
at least chance pops or better throughout the remainder of the
extended, hopeful that more clarity will come in the extended with
later runs.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 76 90 69 83 68 10 40 60 50 30
austin bergstrom intl airport 75 91 69 82 67 10 30 60 50 30
new braunfels muni airport 76 91 70 81 67 10 30 60 50 30
burnet muni airport 73 86 66 81 64 20 50 60 40 30
del rio intl airport 77 91 71 83 69 20 40 60 60 30
georgetown muni airport 75 88 67 81 65 20 40 60 40 30
hondo muni airport 76 91 70 83 67 10 30 60 60 30
san marcos muni airport 76 91 69 81 67 10 30 60 50 30
la grange - fayette regional 76 91 71 81 68 10 30 60 60 30
san antonio intl airport 76 91 71 82 68 10 30 60 50 30
stinson muni airport 76 91 72 82 69 10 20 60 60 30

Ewx watches warnings advisories
None.

Mesoscale aviation... Hampshire
synoptic grids... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kelly Air Force Base, TX5 mi43 minS 14 G 199.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F75%1011.4 hPa
San Antonio, Stinson Municipal Airport, TX5 mi48 minS 135.00 miOvercast with Haze84°F73°F70%1010.8 hPa
San Antonio, San Antonio International Airport, TX10 mi50 minSSE 128.00 miOvercast81°F73°F77%1011 hPa
Randolph Air Force Base, TX14 mi43 minS 11 G 198.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F81%1012 hPa
Castroville Municipal Airport, TX20 mi46 minSSE 10 G 145.00 miOvercast with Haze82°F72°F72%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S8SE7S7S3S6S6E5SE9--SE11SE13SE11--SE10SE13SE9SE11S9S10S7SE10S10S14
G19
1 day agoS14S11
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SE14SE14SE12SE11S8S9SE7SE9S7S9SE7S8SE9
2 days agoW8W9SW9
G15
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G16
S7SW7S7S5SW3CalmS3CalmS3S6S4S4S3CalmCalmS3S9S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.