Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pointe a la Hache, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 7:59PM Monday July 24, 2017 3:51 PM CDT (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:33AMMoonset 9:07PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 334 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 24 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers early in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 334 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 24 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will remain over the northern gulf through the work week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pointe a la Hache, LA
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location: 29.43, -89.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 241722
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1222 pm cdt Mon jul 24 2017

Aviation
MVFR ceilings abound across much of the area, at least north of
the tidal lakes where convection is widespread behind a series of
outflow boundaries interacting with an upper level impulse
traversing the lower mississippi valley this morning. The
convection should continue to settle farther south through the
afternoon with MVFR conditions spreading to areas currentlyVFR in
the next few hours. Heavy rainfall will reduce vsby to ifr and
lifr levels briefly at some locations, but cell movements are
measured at E 27 kt per radar. 24 rr

Prev discussion issued 937 am cdt Mon jul 24 2017
update...

will be updating the zone package to issue a flash flood watch for
a large portion of the forecast area through Tuesday afternoon.

A weak and subtle near surface ripple is indicated in surface
analysis with very rich moisture. Storms are showing back building
and training characteristics on both a land breeze convergence
zone along the immediate ms coast and another convergence zone
near the la ms state line. Rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour
or more will be common, with accumulations under the training in
the 5 to 7 inch range over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Sounding discussion...

very moist sounding with a precipitable water of 2.30 inches,
which is almost 2 standard deviations above normal for this date.

Ran chap to assess potentials, using 360k lift from the LCL of
877mb. This yielded non-severe ricks index of 69, gust potential
18kt, no hail, no tor though waterspouts will be probable.

Rainfall potential is 4.92 to 6.88 inches, which appears
plausible to attain in the current situation and will be the basis
for the flash flood watch, mentioning accumulations in the 5 to 7
inch range over the next 24-36 hours. 24 rr
decision support...

dss code: yellow
deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: flash flood watch
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Prev discussion... Issued 323 am cdt Mon jul 24 2017
short term...

all indications of the high over the gulf edging northward and settling
into the extreme coastal areas this morning. All sh TS will
continue to move from west to east in the relatively deep flow
between this high and the trough that is developing very close to
the northeast corner of the area. Winds will remain slightly
elevated due to these two competing systems and sh TS will also
begin to show a strong formation gradient from drier at the
louisiana coast west of plaquemines parish inland where it will be
much wetter. The high will wobble northward into southwest
louisiana but the more moist conditions associated with the sfc
troughiness will remain anchored over the eastern portion of the
area until the end of the week. As the weekend approaches, a cold
front should be pushing south over tennessee into mississippi
Friday which will be close enough to enhance suppression here.

This will all but shut down all sh TS activity Friday. The cold
front will move through the area Saturday evening or Sunday
morning with what looks like a good bit of sh TS activity which
could be strong or even severe especially associated with a
strong cold front this time of year. As the jet energy supporting
the cold front moves over the pacific, the lack of RAOB sites will
cause models to be back and forth with the temporal and spacial
placement of this front until the energy causing this scenario
dumps into the pacific coast and we again get a proper sampling of
this jet feature. Deep dry air behind the front will be a welcome
change, but these type of conditons do not last long this time of
year.

Aviation...

ceilings developing this morning from bkn015 northeast to ovc090
southwest. This will continue with sh TS causing ceilings to lower
to around ovc020 as they move over terminals today. Most activity
should remain along and north of a lime from btr to msy. A few
showers may develop overnight once again but chances of any
particular site observing rain will be small enough to keep out of
prevailing groups.

Marine...

high pressure becoming well established and should stall today
over the north central gulf while a weak trough develops near the
area today. This is now causing a slightly tighter gradient and
higher winds around 15kt out of the southwest and west as the high
settles up against a developing trough near the coast. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain more prevalent during the early
morning hours and of course winds and seas will be higher near
storms. But most of this activity will now become focused east of
the miss river. Much less sh TS activity is expected west of the
river seaward from the coast.

Decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 85 74 89 73 100 30 50 10
btr 88 75 91 74 100 20 20 10
asd 88 77 91 77 100 30 40 20
msy 89 77 92 77 70 20 20 10
gpt 87 77 90 77 100 30 50 30
pql 87 76 89 76 100 40 60 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch through Tuesday evening for laz034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>065-071-072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Flash flood watch through Tuesday evening for msz068>071-077-
080>082.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 11 mi52 min W 11 G 15 87°F 84°F1017.1 hPa (-0.4)
KXPY 24 mi37 min W 14 88°F 77°F
KDLP 31 mi37 min W 9.9 G 16 86°F 77°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 34 mi52 min WNW 29 G 44 76°F 88°F1018.5 hPa (+1.7)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 34 mi52 min W 4.1 G 8 76°F 85°F1017.5 hPa (+0.6)
CARL1 36 mi52 min 87°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 38 mi92 min W 9.9 G 13 86°F 3 ft1017.1 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 42 mi52 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 85°F1016.9 hPa (+0.5)
PILL1 42 mi52 min W 12 G 18 86°F 87°F1016.8 hPa (-0.5)
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 46 mi52 min W 17 G 19 86°F
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 47 mi52 min W 14 G 15 85°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.3)77°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA15 mi57 minW 910.00 miFair89°F73°F60%1016.9 hPa
Port Fourchon, LA24 mi57 minW 138.00 miFair88°F77°F70%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6W5SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW4SW3SW7SW7SW8
G14
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SW15SW10NW17
G25
1 day agoNE3E6CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W16
G34
W6W6W7W6W9
2 days agoNW3CalmSW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4E3CalmCalmCalmE3E3SE5S10S10
G16
SW9
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:57 AM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.1-0.100.10.20.40.50.70.911.21.31.31.31.21.110.80.70.50.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.100.10.20.30.40.60.70.911.11.21.21.21.110.80.70.50.30.20.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.