Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pointe a la Hache, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:03 AM CST (08:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:26AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 930 Pm Cst Fri Nov 17 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect from midnight cst tonight through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening...
.gale watch in effect from late Saturday night through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Seas building to 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers until early morning.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet in the afternoon. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet after midnight. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 930 Pm Cst Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis..Ridge of high pressure will slowly shift east tonight and Saturday. A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the north gulf waters Saturday night. High pressure will then build in for Sunday and Monday. Another low pressure system may begin to affect the waters by Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pointe a la Hache, LA
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location: 29.43, -89.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 180551
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1151 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

Aviation
Fog with lower conditions are not expected to be as prevalent
overnight into Saturday morning as the last two late nights early
mornings. Most locations are forecast to only fall into MVFR
category with the exception being at kasd where areas of lifr
cigs have already temporarily occurred and will likely continue
through sunrise. Moist southwest flow in advance of the strong
cold front will result in some MVFR CIGS throughout much of the
day for much of the area on Saturday, and have carried prob30 to
account for the chance of showers ahead of the front Saturday
afternoon and evening. Stronger southwest winds of 11 to 17 knots
with gusts over 20 knots will pick up in the afternoon and early
evening Saturday, then stronger northwest to north winds are
expected after the frontal passage Saturday evening and overnight.

22 td

Prev discussion issued 335 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017
short term... No big changes in thinking through Monday concerning
the forecast. The area will continue to be under the influence of
a surface ridge tonight... Resulting in another round of patchy fog
forming late tonight as temperatures cool into the lower 60s.

However, the more widespread dense fog observed the last couple of
nights is not expected as boundary layer winds begin to increase
during the overnight hours.

This increase in boundary layer flow is directly attributable to
an approaching fast moving shortwave trough currently moving
through the rockies. This fast moving feature will force a strong
cold front into the lower mississippi valley by tomorrow evening,
and then across the entire forecast tomorrow night. Although mid-
level moisture will remain fairly limited as the front moves
through, there should be enough forcing along the boundary to
spark off some scattered showers and very isolated low topped
thunderstorms. Have placed chance pop of 30 to 50 percent in the
forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening to reflect this risk.

Highs will be well above average in advance of the front with
temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected.

Strong cold air advection and subsidence will rapidly take hold in
the wake of the front... Along with very breezy conditions from
late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. As a deep cold pool moves
in from the northwest, temperatures will fall into the 40s and
lower 50s by daybreak on Sunday. Continued cold air advection
through the day on Sunday should keep temperatures well below
average around 60 degrees. Skies will also rapidly clear late
tomorrow night into Sunday morning as strong negative vorticity
advection and subsidence take hold. The heart of the cold pool
will be directly over the region Sunday night, and the combination
of light winds and clear skies should allow lows to cool into the
lower to middle 30s across most of the region. A light freeze may
still occur in the pearl and pascagoula river valleys as well as
portions of southwest mississippi. The cold pool will begin to
shift to the east by Monday, but cool and dry weather will
persist. Highs should only climb into the lower 60s as the fringe
effects of the 925mb cold pool linger.

Long term...

all of the model guidance has come into much better agreement
today on the evolution of the weather pattern across the gulf
south for the middle to latter part of next week. Initially, a
fast moving and weak shortwave trough will slide through the
forecast area Monday night. This system will be moisture starved,
but it will force the surface ridge east of the area. As this
occurs, the door will be opened up for return flow off the gulf of
mexico to begin. Temperatures will begin to modify Monday night,
as winds shift to the south with lows only cooling into the 40s.

Tuesday will see a broad long wave trough axis begin to deepen
across the plains and mississippi valley including across the gulf
south. A strong vorticity maxima diving down from the northern
rockies on the western side of the long wave trough will begin to
deepen as it moves into the southern plains. As this occurs, low
level cyclogenesis will begin to develop over the central gulf of
mexico. Across our region in advance of the digging longwave
trough axis, a broad area of ascent and forcing will develop. The
combination of increased forcing along with increased moisture
should spark off some scattered shower activity Tuesday into
Tuesday night. It looks like there will be little to no
thermodynamic instability, so the mention of thunderstorms has
been completely removed from the forecast. Temperatures will
modify slightly on Tuesday, but will remain below average with
highs in the middle to upper 60s and lows in the 40s and low 50s.

The shortwave feature over the southern plains will move into the
western and central gulf of mexico Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Continued low level cyclogenesis will result in a fairly strong
surface low forming over the central gulf by Wednesday night. At
this time, it looks like the majority of forcing and available
moisture will begin to shift more toward the coastal water and
immediate coastal zones of louisiana and mississippi. This is
reflected in the forecast with morning isolated showers giving way
to partly cloudy skies over the northern half of the CWA by
Wednesday evening. Along the coast and offshore, scattered showers
will persist through Wednesday night. A northerly wind should also
develop on Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night as the
surface low strengthens over the central gulf. This will result in
cooler temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s Wednesday night as
some cooler air advects in from the north.

The trough axis and surface low will continue to track to the east
on Thursday and Friday, and expect to see the region on the drier
and cooler side of the system for the upcoming thanksgiving
holiday. However, there will be some better forcing and deeper
moisture closer to the trough axis over the eastern gulf waters
and possibly parts of the mississippi coast thanksgiving day. At
most, only some isolated showers could affect the mississippi
coast. By Friday, the trough will be far enough to the east to
keep any showers well to the east of the area. Overall, expect to
only see partly cloudy skies and continued cool temperatures both
Thursday and Friday. Highs should only climb into the lower to
middle 60s, and lows should cool into the upper 30s and 40s
Thursday night.

Aviation... Overall most terminals will remain inVFR through the
evening but after 6z fog could develop once again. It appears as
though fog should not be as big an issue as the past 2 nights and
this is due to the increase in winds expected overnight especially
just above the surface. That said mcb, asd, and hdc will likely have
some patchy light fog. The bigger issue could be low CIGS but these
may not develop until 9-13z over much of the area and could remain
at or just abv 3k ft at most sites. Mcb has the best chance of seeing
cigs below 3k feet. Cab
marine... Slowly increasing onshore winds overnight due to a
tightening pressure gradient will yield exercise caution headlines
for the overnight hours over the open waters. Winds will further
increase tomorrow during the day as the strong cold front
approaches. Small craft advisories will be in place for the open
waters tomorrow as winds increase to 15-20 knots with frequent
higher gusts out of the southwest.

More significant issues after the cold front moves. This will occur
during the evening hours Saturday and winds will quickly veer around
to the north-northwest and increase significantly over all of the
waters. All of the waters that are not in the scy during the
afternoon and evening hours tomorrow will be so after 3z but by 6z
all of the open waters winds will continue to increase. At this time
it looks like there could be frequent gale force gusts and with that
have decided to issue a gale watch for those open waters from 6-15z
Sunday. Small craft advisories will likely continue for the open
waters through the remainder of the day Sunday.

As for seas waves... Thanks to the offshore nature of the winds sea
heights will not be too far out of hand but would not be surprised
to see 7-8 feet seas with occasionally higher possibly up to 10 feet
in the outer waters.

Winds will begin to relax Sunday night however some zones could
still see headlines into next week with winds and seas likely
becoming hazardous again Wednesday and Thursday next week. Cab
decision support... Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: gale watch
small craft adv
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 61 80 43 60 0 50 40 0
btr 63 81 45 62 0 50 40 0
asd 62 81 48 62 0 40 40 0
msy 64 81 54 62 0 30 40 0
gpt 63 77 49 62 0 30 40 0
pql 58 79 49 62 0 30 40 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
gmz550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small craft advisory from noon Saturday to midnight cst Saturday
night for gmz550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small craft advisory from 9 pm Saturday to 9 am cst Sunday for
gmz530-532-534-536-538.

Ms... None.

Gm... Gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
gmz552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small craft advisory from noon Saturday to midnight cst Saturday
night for gmz552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small craft advisory from 9 pm Saturday to 9 am cst Sunday for
gmz532-534-536-538.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 38 mi69 min 16 G 19 75°F 2 ft1015.1 hPa
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 47 mi124 min S 16 G 19
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 47 mi64 min SSW 12 G 13 72°F 1015.7 hPa (-1.5)66°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA15 mi69 minSSE 410.00 miFair66°F62°F88%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3E6S6S5S6SE7SE5SE3CalmSE3SE4SE3SE3SE3S3S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E5CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSE3CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE3NE4NE4NE3E3E3E6E5NE6E5SE5SE6SE5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:25 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM CST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:34 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:14 PM CST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.90.80.70.60.50.30.20.100000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:25 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM CST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:34 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:11 PM CST     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.80.70.60.50.30.20.100000.10.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.91

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.