Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pointe a la Hache, LA

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Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:39PM Saturday August 18, 2018 11:33 AM CDT (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:49PMMoonset 12:12AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 1029 Am Cdt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1029 Am Cdt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the northern gulf of mexico through the weekend into early next week. A cold front will enter the coastal waters on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pointe a la Hache, LA
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location: 29.43, -89.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 181404
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
904 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018

Sounding discussion
The column is generally quite moist with a pwat of 2.23 inches,
around the same as the past 2 days, with a prominent dry slot
around 450mb. It is also above the daily mean of 1.88 inch for
this day. MLCAPE at 1883 j kg and relatively low convt indicates
storms should have no problem forming given sufficient forcing.

Cin is present at the surface (-150 j kg) but will likely erode
quickly as temps warm up. Winds are generally light throughout the
column, with the surface at about 15 knots wsw. It speeds up to
25-30 knots and becomes mostly southerly near the top.

-bl

Prev discussion issued 405 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
short term...

old outflow boundaries exist in most locations this morning. This
can act to initiate sh TS and should be able to do so today once
heating begins. Should still get a crop of sh TS moving in from
the gulf during the morning, maybe not as many as yesterday.

Thunderstorms today through much of the upcoming week will be
capable of very heavy rainfall in a short period causing some
flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas and roadways will
definitely make that list.

Guidance is still advertising a cold front to move into the area
by mid week dropping temps down into the mid to upper 80s with no
dense cloud cover. For this time of year, that is relatively
strong cool air advection. Dry air will also accompany the front
bringing dp temps back down to the mid 60s. This would only last a
day maybe two at the most around wed. The moisture surges back to
the north once again by the end of the work week bringing the
warmth, humidity and sh TS back to the area.

By next weekend, deep easterlies will develop again and at least
one if not two easterly waves will bring a better chance of sh ts
to the area possibly by the end of next weekend or into the new
week. Easterly waves affecting the area are very normal for
august but an actual cold front with cooler temps is not but we
will take it.

Aviation...

forecast scenario is little changed from the past several days.

ExpectVFR conditions to predominate through the forecast period
outside of convective activity. A little less convection noted over
the coastal waters at 08z compared to the past 2 mornings, so pre-
dawn convection may not be quite as common as the past 2 mornings.

Will tend to use vcts with only a 4 hour window of tempo in most
terminals today, as instantaneous areal coverage of convection may
not be much more than 30-40 percent. If convection is expected to
directly impact a terminal, ifr or lower conditions will be
possible, with wind gusts to 30 knots or so. Most convection should
run out of steam around 00z-01z, with a restart of coastal
convection Sunday morning around 10z. 35
marine...

high pressure will remain centered east of the waters through early
next week. As a result, a prevailing onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots
is expected across most of the coastal waters through the period.

The only exception will be over the nearshore waters off the
mississippi coast where a seabreeze is expected to develop each day.

This could induce some stronger onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots for
a few hours each afternoon across the mississippi and chandeleur
sounds. Seas will range from 1 to 2 feet through the entire period
across all of the waters. Medium range models do depict at least a
brief period of northerly winds late Wednesday with a cold frontal
passage, but no strong winds indicated with this frontal passage
outside of convection. 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 90 73 90 73 70 20 60 30
btr 91 75 90 75 60 20 60 30
asd 90 76 90 76 60 30 70 40
msy 90 77 90 77 60 30 70 30
gpt 89 77 89 77 70 30 70 40
pql 89 76 90 76 70 40 70 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 11 mi33 min S 5.1 G 8 80°F 87°F1019.5 hPa
KXPY 24 mi18 min S 7 82°F 75°F
KDLP 31 mi18 min SSW 9.9 81°F 73°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 34 mi39 min S 12 G 15 80°F 89°F1019.3 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 34 mi33 min S 5.1 G 7 85°F 87°F1018.8 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 36 mi33 min 86°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 38 mi54 min S 6 G 8.9 80°F 2 ft1020.1 hPa71°F
PILL1 42 mi39 min S 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 86°F1020.2 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 42 mi33 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 86°F 87°F1018.1 hPa (+0.0)
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 46 mi33 min W 2.9 G 4.1
SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06 47 mi93 min SE 5.1 G 6 83°F
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 47 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 6 78°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.3)73°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA15 mi38 minS 910.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity83°F77°F84%1019 hPa
Port Fourchon, LA24 mi58 minESE 49.00 miFair81°F75°F84%1019.6 hPa

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Last 24hrSE3SE3E4SE6SE5CalmCalmCalmSE3S5S4CalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmW17
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1 day agoCalmS3SE5SE6S7S5S4S3SE3SE3S3SE3S3CalmS4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmN4S3W4Calm
2 days agoSW3SW8S5S5NE4S4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:10 AM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:48 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:20 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.911.11.11.1110.90.80.70.60.50.50.40.40.30.30.30.30.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:49 AM CDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:07 AM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:06 PM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.