Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 11:50 PM   Moonset 8:51 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 848 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, increasing to around 30 knots overnight. Bay waters rough, becoming very rough overnight. Sunday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough, becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. A higher chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.Sunday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the late morning and afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until late afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 848 Pm Cdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
strong onshore winds and hazardous seas will continue through Sunday night. Small craft advisories are in effect for both the gulf waters and bays. Minor coastal flooding is expected in vulnerable locations at times of high tide. There is a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Monday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday night into Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions hazardous through Monday. Generally moderate onshore flow will persist through the rest of the week.

FXUS64 KHGX 280455 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners should fill NE across the Plains this evening. The tight gradient and 30-40 knot LLJ should continue to bring windy conditions across SE Texas overnight.
Expect winds to be south/southeasterly around 15-25 mph with gusts of around 25-35 mph. Therefore, a Wind Advisory will remain in effect for most areas south of the I-10 corridor through 7 PM CDT Tonight. For the barrier islands east of Freeport, the Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 7 AM Sunday. Persistent onshore flow with ample moisture and cloudy skies should keep lows for Sunday morning in the 70s across SE Texas.

A cold front/dry line associated with the aforementioned upper level system will approach the Brazos Valley late Sunday morning. As it nears our area, the pressure gradient will weaken, reducing wind speeds & gusts. Isolated storms should begin to pop up during the afternoon ahead of this boundary. During the late afternoon/early evening, guidance indicates a more cohesive line/cluster of thunderstorms developing along a weaker boundary, tracking E/SE overnight. The environment for these storms still appears to be fairly potent. ML CAPE values during the late afternoon rise to around 2100-2800 J/KG in areas east of I-45, in excess of 3000 J/KG in areas to the west. LIs peak around -6 to -10 Deg C, with mid level lapse rates ranging from 6.5-8.5 Deg C/km. ML LCL heights will be under 1000m. Effective shear (EBWD) will range from 35-45 knots, with 3 km SRH ranging from 100-250 m2s2. PWs remain near 1.6-1.9 inches.

Currently SPC has areas north of the I-10 corridor under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather on Sunday, with the remainder of SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk. These storms appear to take on more of a discrete storm-mode, capable of producing all severe weather hazards. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

These storms will also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. WPC has the northern third of our CWA under a Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Sunday, with areas to the south partially under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk. Rainfall totals through Monday morning are expected to range from 0.5"-2.25" with locally higher amounts up to 4" possible with any slower-moving storms.

The severe weather & heavy rainfall threat should decrease overnight as the boundary pushes further south, displacing these storms further from the upper level trough, reducing the already weak forcing aloft. This weak/diffuse boundary should slow/stall out around the I-10 corridor, through conditions will still be fairly warm/humid across the region Monday Morning.

03

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast as a series of disturbances/impulses/shortwaves move across the state in a generally west to southwest flow aloft while onshore winds remain in place. Enough instability could persist on Monday for possible strong/severe storms (Marginal Risk on SPC's Day 3 Convective Outlook) and locally heavy rain (Marginal Risk on WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook). For the rest of the period, could see shower/storm development almost any day with better chances generally across our northern counties. High temperatures will be in the 80s and lows will be mainly in the 70s. 42

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings are still expected overnight as a low stratus deck forms over the region. Winds remain gusty from the SSE in the 15-25kt range. Ceilings are expected to rise throughout the day on Sunday. Thunderstorms to the west of us will likely decay before reaching the region, but might still bring scattered showers in the early morning. Most significant weather is expected in the afternoon and into the evening as daytime heating, upper level disturbances, and lingering boundaries initiate widespread thunderstorm activity. There is still some uncertainty, but latest model guidance indicates convection firing off in the early afternoon in the CLL, UTS, and CXO area. They are expected to become more organized and migrate to the Houston and coastal terminals around 2-7Z. Localized severe storms are possible, with strong potential for intermittent heavy rain, reduced vsbys, and strong winds.

CJ

MARINE
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds (15 to 25 knots with gusts >30 knots)
and elevated seas (10 to 12 feet offshore) will continue through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Sunday. Minor coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations at times of high tide. Rain chances increase on Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms persisting into Monday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday into Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions dangerous to small craft through Sunday night. Though more moderate, onshore flow will persist early next week. 42

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 73 82 69 85 / 10 80 70 20 Houston (IAH) 74 84 70 85 / 10 50 60 60 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 72 80 / 0 40 40 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ214- 313-337-338-437>439.

Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ437>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Sunday night for GMZ350- 355.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

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Port Bolivar, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Sun -- 04:46 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:39 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:33 AM CDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:52 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:37 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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