Texas City, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Texas City, TX

May 12, 2024 9:28 AM CDT (14:28 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM
Moonrise 9:18 AM   Moonset 11:58 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 254 Am Cdt Sun May 12 2024

.small craft should exercise caution - .

Today - East winds around 15 to 20 knots, becoming southeast late this morning and afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early this morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon.

Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.

Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers.

Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, veering to southwest late. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning.

Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to north in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots, backing to northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.

Wednesday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, veering to southwest after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 254 Am Cdt Sun May 12 2024

Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong east winds and seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to persist through at least this evening, and potentially even deeper into the night. Small craft will need to proceed with caution. Shower and Thunderstorm activity is anticipated to gradually increase into Monday. While showers and storms will be possible both today and tomorrow, it currently appears that more activity will be over land today, and a bit more potential for storms over the waters on Monday. Tuesday should give us a short stretch of fairer weather and a brief amount of offshore flow, but onshore winds return quickly Tuesday night. This will be followed shortly by the next window for showers and storms in the mid-to-late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Texas City, TX
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Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 121136 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 636 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

It is Mother's Day, and the atmosphere over Southeast Texas has decided to celebrate it with opportunities for natural fireworks at times today and tomorrow - it's so enthusiastic about it, that unfortunately we are indeed on the lookout again for storms capable of produce excessive rain and severe weather. Here are some main points from our latest analysis of the situation: - We've expanded the flood watch for today and tonight slightly southward. Brazos, Grimes, Montgomery, and northern Liberty counties are now included in the watch area.
- Though the current watch is only in place until tomorrow morning, that does not necessarily mean the flooding threat ends then. We'll be monitoring how rainfall evolves later today and tonight, and use that help inform a decision on where...if any watch is needed for Monday. A potential for severe storms is also anticipated today and tomorrow, particularly tomorrow when the entire area is in a slight risk (threat level 2 of 5) for severe storms.
- Tuesday looks to provide a brief break, but the unsettled pattern continues through the week, and we're expecting another window that could bring us heavy rain and severe weather later Wednesday into Thursday. Keep checking in with us for the latest on this potential as we push deeper into the week.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Happy Mother's Day southeast Texas friends! Sadly, this discussion will not feature beautiful weather for your Mother's Day due to the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. A mid/upper low continues to slowly crawl eastward over SW CONUS this morning. The low is enhancing a mid/upper W to WSW jet over central, south, east, and coastal Texas today. Winds at the 500MB level are expected to increase to 50-60kts by late this afternoon. Low pressure will develop in the lower levels over W Kansas and the TX/OK panhandles today, then move eastward. Deep, moist, S to SE LL flow ahead of the low will result in a PWAT surge across the CWA HRRR PWAT means for this afternoon show most locations peaking above 2 inches. In addition to increasing PWATs, large scale ascent will also be on the uptick as PVA is introduced over SE Texas thanks to the approaching larger mid/upper system as well as smaller vort maxes embedded in the jet. The PVA induced lift will be further enhanced by increasing LL convergence thanks to a warm front pushing northward from the Gulf. In addition to synoptic and mesoscale lift, the general buoyancy of the atmosphere will be on the rise as well. Hi-res forecast soundings are showing no shortage of LL instability by afternoon with ML lapse rates on the rise as well. So what does all this mean for you Mother's Day?

Generally speaking, the aforementioned parameters are favorable for the development of showers and thunderstorms, with locally very heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible.
WPC has placed our Piney Woods counties under a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) of excessive rainfall for today. Most of the rest of our CWA is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). The exception is our SW counties where there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. SPC has kept our northern CWA in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with areas farther south in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and hail. The best chance of heavy rainfall capable of producing flooding will be north of I-10. That being said, pretty much all regions in our CWA have a chance of seeing a heavy shower or thunderstorm. Timing wise, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this morning. However, the best chance of deeper convection will be this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings indicate increased capping around 750MB after 03Z, suggesting a tapering of shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. High temperatures today are expected to range from the mid/upper 70s in our northern counties to low 80s over our southern counties.

The active weather setup continues into Monday. Instability and ML shear parameters are expected to become more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms. Therefore, it is no surprise that SPC has the entire CWA in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) on Monday. Once again, damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns.
Monday's higher instability will be felt in the form of hotter temperatures along with humidity. Afternoon highs temperatures could approach 90 degrees with dew points in the low/mid 70s. General heat index values are expected to peak in the upper 90s. The thunderstorm threat will also come with an excessive rainfall risk. WPC has most of the eastern half of our CWA in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) while the rest of our region is in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4).

So how much rainfall can we expect through Monday? Widespread totals north of I-10 are expected to be 2-4 inches, with totals dropping off as one approaches the coast. However, locally much heavier totals are likely. HRRR ensemble max values indicate locally up to 7- 10 inches of rainfall is possible. Where these potential higher amounts occur is basically anyone's guess. However, the parameters do suggest that the most favored region to receive locally much heavier amounts will be north of I-10, particularly across our northern Piney Woods counties. Unfortunately, these counties are among the hardest hit from recent heavy rainfall events.

If you encounter water covered roads, please turn your car around.
Most flood related deaths occur in vehicles. Stay weather aware today and tomorrow. Have multiple ways to receive warnings.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Tuesday, at least, looks like a glass half full kind of day, and that's what we start the long term forecast with. Rain chances are slim to none Tuesday and Tuesday night, and another late spring "cold" front will get us a short bit with more sun and...let's call it a little less humidity. Enough to be a nice changeup. Of course, this is also likely to erase any tangible "cold" effect of the front, and the should be just as, and probably even slightly warmer than both days framing it. Tuesday night may give us a bit more help, with lows managing to fall below 70 for a single night for all but those very close to the Gulf coast.

Of course, this impact looks to be very limited as at least partial onshore flow returns Tuesday night, and becomes more firmly established across the area on Wednesday. Since this isn't going to *immediately* bring precipitable water values back up, and we look to see at least a little shortwave ridging sliding through, most of the day Wednesday should be a process of noticing increasing humidity and cloud cover. At some point, we'll be looking at precipitable water increasing back to around or above the 90th percentile, while whatever weak ridging aloft we can manage moves off, and we end up back under broadly cyclonic flow aloft...and that's when PoPs are going to start increasing again.
For now, I've got that holding off until late Wednesday night, and really focusing on Thursday and Thursday evening for our best chance at more significant rainfall and storms.

As for the intensity of this second window...confidence beyond the broad strokes is still not as high as with the expectations for this first window today/tomorrow. However, the Euro ensemble Extreme Forecast Index shows a pretty decent signal in the 0.7 to 0.9 range for a higher-end CAPE/Shear parameter space on Thursday.
The NBM median CAPE values are in the 500-1000 J/Kg range on Wednesday, and 1000-2000+ J/Kg on Thursday. Even though the instability levels are less impressive Wednesday, it could be sufficient for at least some isolated strong to severe storms, and Thursday is much more obvious. The main thing precluding us from getting more aggressive with severe threat is that the main upper trough looks to be a little on the late side, which means we may be dependent on less predictable shortwave troughs to help support vertical motion. Given our pre-existing saturated conditions, there's a little more confidence in discussing a locally heavy rain threat in this window. Both the NAEFS and EPS means suggest precipitable water back up above the 90th percentile Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, and both also peak out above the 99.5th percentile, with PWATs pushing 2 inches near the coast. The EPS even indicates a small area of PWAT outside of its 18Z climatology Thursday afternoon. Perhaps unsurprisingly, we have a slight risk area (threat level 2 of 4) for part to most of the area each day in the excessive rain outlook from WPC.

Late Thursday night, a cold front attached to a low over the Great Lakes will make its way through the area, and at least put an end to this window for heavier rain and stronger storms.
Unfortunately, it will be another one of those weak, late spring fronts, that will be fairly ineffective at significantly scouring out moisture or introducing noticeably cooler air. So on the downside, temperatures will actually begin to drift their way back up through the 80s towards 90 degrees Friday and Saturday. And at this point, it's not necessarily looking good to knock dewpoints down far enough to really get a lot of relief at night, either. In short...welcome to summer, y'all.

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

There are various aviation weather concerns through the TAF period. Cigs are likely to be sub VFR through most of the TAF period. Mostly MVFR is expected today with areas of IFR. Periods of VFR are possible. More widespread IFR is possible late tonight.
Another concern is TS activity. Best chance of TS will be from the Houston area terminals points north this afternoon. Some of our northern terminals (CLL, UTS) could experience TS tonight. Reduced visibility and gusty winds will be possible in any heavy shra or tsra. Winds will become SE by this afternoon 10-15 knots. Higher gusts up around 20 knots are possible.

MARINE
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong east winds and seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to persist through at least this evening, and potentially even deeper into the night. Small craft will need to proceed with caution. Shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated to gradually increase into Monday. While showers and storms will be possible both today and tomorrow, it currently appears that more activity will be over land today, and a bit more potential for storms over the waters on Monday. Tuesday should give us a short stretch of fairer weather and a brief amount of offshore flow, but onshore winds return quickly Tuesday night.
This will be followed shortly by the next window for showers and storms in the mid-to-late week.

At the coast, the persistent onshore flow will keep up a threat for high rip currents. A rip current statement is in effect deep into this evening, but may need to be extended even longer, depending on how storms today/tonight affect the wind field over the waters. The onshore flow is also keeping water levels up above typical astronomical tides. However, expectations are that even at times of high tide, water levels will stay below thresholds at which coastal flooding problems begin to emerge.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 78 72 86 65 / 80 50 60 10 Houston (IAH) 80 74 88 69 / 70 40 60 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 76 83 73 / 40 20 50 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-196- 198>200.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 8 mi58 min ESE 12G14 81°F 76°F29.82
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 8 mi58 min SE 18G21 79°F 77°F29.80
GTOT2 11 mi58 min ESE 8G13 78°F 79°F29.79
GRRT2 13 mi58 min ESE 12G16 77°F 76°F29.79
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 14 mi58 min ESE 15G19 77°F 80°F29.82
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 19 mi58 min NE 11G14 71°F 78°F29.81
HIST2 22 mi58 min ESE 11G13 77°F 83°F29.85
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 25 mi48 min ESE 16G19 77°F 77°F29.8275°F
KGVW 26 mi38 min ESE 17
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 32 mi58 min E 5.1G7 70°F 29.80
LUIT2 33 mi58 min E 13G16 78°F 78°F29.79
FPST2 46 mi58 min ESE 18G21 78°F 78°F29.77


Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX 15 sm36 minESE 139 smOvercast29.83
KEFD ELLINGTON,TX 23 sm34 minENE 0710 smOvercast73°F70°F89%29.82
Link to 5 minute data for KGLS


Wind History from GLS
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Port Bolivar, Galveston Bay, Texas
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Bolivar, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Sun -- 12:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:14 AM CDT     -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:21 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM CDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:26 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
12
am
-2.3
1
am
-2.2
2
am
-2
3
am
-1.6
4
am
-1
5
am
-0.3
6
am
0.5
7
am
1.2
8
am
1.7
9
am
1.9
10
am
1.8
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
1
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
0.5
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
-0.2
7
pm
-0.5
8
pm
-0.8
9
pm
-1.1
10
pm
-1.4
11
pm
-1.7


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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Houston/Galveston, TX,




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