Flagler Beach, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flagler Beach, FL

May 15, 2024 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM
Moonrise 12:18 PM   Moonset 1:17 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 215 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024

.severe Thunderstorm watch 244 in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon - .

Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 7 seconds and west 2 feet at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.

Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.

Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.

Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.

Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Sunday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 215 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024

Synopsis - Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through late afternoon mainly over the northeast florida waters. Stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 35-50 knots and small hail and perhaps a waterspout. Conditions will improve from north to south late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front moves across the coastal waters. Westerly winds will gradually subside overnight and early Thursday as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters late Friday night through the weekend, with a few strong storms possible this weekend.

Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 93 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flagler Beach, FL
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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 151741 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 141 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surface front is currently upstream of the region extending from central Georgia through the FL Panhandle into the central Gulf of Mexico. This feature will slowly migrate to the southeast through the day. Pooling of moisture is evident on satellite and surface observations with dewpoints in the lower 70s south of the FL/GA border with low layer streamline analysis showing deep moisture tap from the GOM with southwesterly flow. Precipitable water values are now above 1.6 inches south of I-10 where the main focus for convection will be this morning through mid afternoon where Convection over GOM will advect into Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast pressing into our region while blossoming in areal coverage and strength as the morning progresses. At the same time the upper trof will continue to track across the SE U.S. which has brought 500 mb temps at -9 to -10 C. With cool mid level temps, hail (perhaps large) and strong gusty and isolated damaging thunderstorm wind gusts (40-60 mph) will be main threats with any of the stronger updrafts tapping into cooler air aloft. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out mainly south of SR16 as well, though this potential looks low at this time with a smaller time window potential with more speed shear with height as opposed to directional shear this late morning through mid afternoon. Tornado watch #243 continues for Flagler, Putnam, St.
Johns and Marion Counties though 11 am.

The line of showers and storms is expected to slowly sink south through the mid afternoon with northwesterly steering winds working into the region as surface cold front moves into coastal Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Current forecast, messaging on NWSChat 2.0 and social media channels look on track.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Shortwave energy crosses southern and central parts of the area tonight, and combined with plentiful moisture and elevated instability will develop showers and thunderstorms overnight, especially from about I-10 southward. In addition, a cold front is approaching western GA as of the 03Z WPC surface analysis, which will continue to shift southeastward throughout the night and today. Effective/0-6km shear is definitely sufficient, but the more significant element is the amount of available energy, especially aloft, where forecast soundings indicate near or about 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE or higher, with noticeable amounts within the hail growth zone. Therefore, expecting hail to be the primary threat with any stronger updrafts, though shear and kinematics certainly would warrant strong wind potential of 40-60mph. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well, though this potential looks marginal.

Overnight convection will be persistent into the late morning to early afternoon hours while slowly drifting south with the approaching front and associated dynamics aloft with the parent upper trough. Expecting a similar threat to play out for southern counties in northeast FL for the late morning to afternoon period, as vertical profiles will remain similar (high CAPE and sufficient shear). It is certainly possible for a couple of showers and isolated thunderstorms to pop up immediately ahead of the approaching front though lagging behind overnight activity as the front progresses southeastward (as far north as north of I-10), in which some high res solutions are suggesting. Though the severe threat should drop off quite a bit from south of north throughout the afternoon as a lot of drier air works its way in aloft. Southwest to westerly winds will also be quite breezy today, though below wind advisory criteria (10-20 mph and gusts in the upper 20s to 30s). Temps will be not as traditional today due to the frontal boundary and morning convection - generally in the mid to upper 80s south of I-10, with some areas approaching 90 possible over a stretch of southeast GA.

The front should settle sufficiently south of the region by tonight as some drier air near the surface and especially aloft fills in. Overall decreasing clouds and lows in the 60s inland, and near 70 near the St. Johns River and coast.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Thursday...Dry airmass in place between weather systems will continue mainly dry conditions under mostly sunny skies with above normal temps reaching into the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas with West-Northwest winds at 10-15 mph and East Coast sea breeze remains pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast.

Thursday Night...High clouds slowly increase ahead of next weather system with light SW winds at the surface. Low temps in the 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Dry conditions will continue.

Friday...Moisture levels will continue to slowly increase ahead of the weekend weather system in the low level SW steering flow and this may be just enough to trigger afternoon/evening shower/storm activity along the sea breezes as they move further inland and meet along the US 301 corridor later in the day. Temps continue well above normal in the upper 80s SE GA and lower 90s NE FL with slightly lower values along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

Friday Night...Still some significant model diffs as the faster ECMWF bring in pre-frontal showers/storms in this period while the latest GFS/NAM keeping activity to the NW of the region with mostly dry and humid conditions, so for now have been keeping with model blends which keep scattered showers/isolated storms going through the night with above normal low temps in the lower/middle 70s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Saturday...Next frontal boundary pushes into the region with a return to heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential area-wide and rainfall chances already in the 60-80% range. Above normal temps will continue ahead of the frontal boundary with upper 80s SE GA and still into the lower 90s for NE FL with Heat Indices still close to 100F across NE FL.

Sunday/Monday/Tuesday...Models coming into better agreement that in the wake of departing storm system a drier airmass will push into the region on Northwest flow with limited rainfall chances and temps still slightly above normal but not as hot with Max temps in the 85-90 range and lows 65-70. Some limited moisture return by Monday and Tuesday may lead to widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms along sea breeze boundaries but overall below normal rainfall chances are expected.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Line of convection currently resides from JAX to GNV with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms contain small hail and wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots at this particular time. The convection will start to shift to the south and east the next couple hours as a cold front shifts from SE GA into NE FL. The convection will last through 20z over the FL TAF sites. The heavy rainfall and lower ceilings will also cause periods of MVFR and isolated IFR, as indicated in TEMPO groups through 20z. AS the convective storm shifts south, some residual rain may occur between 20z and 22z but cigs/vsbys will be primarily VFR. After the initial bout of tstms through 20z, VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period with mainly scattered to broken high cirroform clouds in the wake, with clear skies overnight. Westerly winds of 8 to 12 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon, becoming light westerly after sunset through the night.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through the morning hours.
Stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even waterspouts. Storms and showers will shift southeastward late Wednesday morning as a cold frontal boundary shifts southward through the waters.Conditions will improve from north to south Wednesday afternoon and evening, with breezy westerly winds expected outside of thunderstorms that will gradually subside by Thursday afternoon as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with a few strong storms possible. Winds will then shift to northwesterly by Sunday afternoon and night as this front pushes offshore.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today due to unsettled weather, dropping to low Thursday with generally weakening offshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 66 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 70 86 72 84 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 68 91 68 90 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 69 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 66 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 69 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 10

he heavy rainfall and lower ceilings will also cause periods of MVFR and isolated IFR, as indicated in TEMPO groups.

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 13 mi63 min S 1.9 79°F 29.8975°F
41070 22 mi73 min 76°F3 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 27 mi48 min WSW 6G7 78°F 77°F29.8778°F
41117 36 mi52 min 77°F3 ft


Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFIN FLAGLER EXECUTIVE,FL 4 sm58 minWSW 0810 smOvercast79°F73°F84%29.89
KOMN ORMOND BEACH MUNI,FL 12 sm38 minWSW 065 smPartly Cloudy Thunderstorm Lt Rain 79°F75°F89%29.89
KDAB DAYTONA BEACH INTL,FL 21 sm45 minSW 1010 smOvercast Thunderstorm Lt Rain 82°F73°F74%29.88
Link to 5 minute data for KXFL


Wind History from XFL
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
   
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Smith Creek
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Wed -- 01:38 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
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Wed -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     0.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida, Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Jacksonville, FL,




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