Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flagler Beach, FL
May 21, 2024 11:55 AM EDT (15:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 5:43 PM Moonset 4:01 AM |
AMZ454 Expires:202405212115;;599596 Fzus52 Kjax 211303 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 903 am edt Tue may 21 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-212115- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 903 am edt Tue may 21 2024
.small craft exercise caution - .
Rest of today - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: northeast 5 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: northeast 4 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 3 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 903 am edt Tue may 21 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-212115- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 903 am edt Tue may 21 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 903 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis -
northeasterly flow will decrease some today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well east of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
northeasterly flow will decrease some today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well east of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 211255 AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 855 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 846 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Forecast remains on track with near term model guidance still suggesting that a combination of coastal trough moving onshore and East coast sea breeze development and inland push through the afternoon hours will kick off scattered showers and potential isolated thunderstorms across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. PWATs already around 1 inch or so and expected to increase closer to 1.5 inches as the sea breeze and mid level impulse push onshore through the day. Max temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the 80s for most locations.
Breezy Northeast winds will expected at the coast in the 15-20G25-30 mph range with 10-15G20 mph winds expected further inland. Rainfall chances and cloud cover will fade quickly around sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight and lows expected in the 60s inland and near 70 along the coast. Patchy to areas of fog expected towards sunrise with locally dense fog possible over inland areas, mainly along the I-10 corridor northward across inland SE GA.
NEAR TERM
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Onshore flow pattern continues Today, which could lead to a few coastal showers moving inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. High temperatures Today are expected to be around 80 coast, lower-mid 80s inland, possibly upper 80s Marion Co.
For Tonight...expecting mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s well inland...around 70 coast.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Ridging aloft will be over the Carolinas on Wednesday as a weak cutoff trough east of the waters exits further eastward into the western Atlantic. This pattern will support surface high pressure along the Carolina coast Wednesday with light easterly winds and dry conditions due to subsidence and highs near normal in the low to mid 80s and warmer inland into the upper 80s to near 90.
Wednesday night, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and around 70 along the coast. Patchy fog will develop inland as low level moisture moisture increases.
Thursday, surface high pressure will shift south into the waters off the southeast coast and extend a surface ridge axis westward through SE GA and into the FL panhandle with more southeasterly light steering flow that will bring the Atlantic seabreeze well inland. Subsidence will again prevent any mention of Pops despite stronger heating as a mid/upper level ridging from the southwest Gulf of Mexico builds northeastward into the area which will help raise high temperatures into the low 90s away from the coast with the Atlantic seabreeze cooling the coast into the mid to upper 80s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Mid/upper level ridge will extend from the Gulf of Mexico NE into the FL peninsula and create hot conditions into this weekend as the low level ridge axis sinks south into central FL Friday and then to south FL over the weekend. Friday should be dry due to the influence of the low level ridge just south of the area with isolated to widely scattered T'storms developing this weekend as a few shortwaves impulses travel eastward around the northern periphery of the Gulf ridge. The Atlantic seabreeze will remain east of I-95 as low level steering flow becomes more southwesterly and allow highs to reach the mid 90s east of highway 301 and low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will climb to around 100 degrees as rising dewpoints mix out only to the upper 60s to near 70 in the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday.
A more organized shortwave will race east across the deep south next Monday ahead of a deepening trough over the central US.
Better southwest flow aloft will bump up moisture levels to above normal 1.4-1.6 inches with scattered T'storm coverage in place.
Highs next Monday will again be in the mid 90s east of highway 301 with heat index values rising a bit into the 100-104 degrees from the coast to the St Johns river basin and north central FL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
MVFR CIGS already pushing onshore to the Atlantic Coast ahead of trough over the coastal waters and will bring VCSH to all sites through the morning hours with a slight increase in NE winds to 10-13G15-21 knots through the afternoon hours. CIGS will likely lift upwards to VFR at inland TAF sites but remain close to 3000 ft at the coastal TAF sites through the afternoon. Rainfall chances still too low to include any TEMPO groups at this time but may be needed at SGJ as any heavier showers approach. Shower activity and clouds fade quickly around sunset (00Z) along with diminishing winds and expect VFR conds through the evening hours.
With winds becoming calm at inland sites overnight expect at least some MVFR fog likely at VQQ and possible at GNV/JAX towards sunrise late in the TAF period.
MARINE
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday.
.Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 61 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 80 70 83 71 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 83 66 87 68 / 30 10 0 0 SGJ 83 69 85 69 / 40 10 0 0 GNV 87 65 90 67 / 40 10 10 0 OCF 89 66 91 68 / 40 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 855 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 846 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Forecast remains on track with near term model guidance still suggesting that a combination of coastal trough moving onshore and East coast sea breeze development and inland push through the afternoon hours will kick off scattered showers and potential isolated thunderstorms across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. PWATs already around 1 inch or so and expected to increase closer to 1.5 inches as the sea breeze and mid level impulse push onshore through the day. Max temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the 80s for most locations.
Breezy Northeast winds will expected at the coast in the 15-20G25-30 mph range with 10-15G20 mph winds expected further inland. Rainfall chances and cloud cover will fade quickly around sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight and lows expected in the 60s inland and near 70 along the coast. Patchy to areas of fog expected towards sunrise with locally dense fog possible over inland areas, mainly along the I-10 corridor northward across inland SE GA.
NEAR TERM
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Onshore flow pattern continues Today, which could lead to a few coastal showers moving inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. High temperatures Today are expected to be around 80 coast, lower-mid 80s inland, possibly upper 80s Marion Co.
For Tonight...expecting mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s well inland...around 70 coast.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Ridging aloft will be over the Carolinas on Wednesday as a weak cutoff trough east of the waters exits further eastward into the western Atlantic. This pattern will support surface high pressure along the Carolina coast Wednesday with light easterly winds and dry conditions due to subsidence and highs near normal in the low to mid 80s and warmer inland into the upper 80s to near 90.
Wednesday night, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and around 70 along the coast. Patchy fog will develop inland as low level moisture moisture increases.
Thursday, surface high pressure will shift south into the waters off the southeast coast and extend a surface ridge axis westward through SE GA and into the FL panhandle with more southeasterly light steering flow that will bring the Atlantic seabreeze well inland. Subsidence will again prevent any mention of Pops despite stronger heating as a mid/upper level ridging from the southwest Gulf of Mexico builds northeastward into the area which will help raise high temperatures into the low 90s away from the coast with the Atlantic seabreeze cooling the coast into the mid to upper 80s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Mid/upper level ridge will extend from the Gulf of Mexico NE into the FL peninsula and create hot conditions into this weekend as the low level ridge axis sinks south into central FL Friday and then to south FL over the weekend. Friday should be dry due to the influence of the low level ridge just south of the area with isolated to widely scattered T'storms developing this weekend as a few shortwaves impulses travel eastward around the northern periphery of the Gulf ridge. The Atlantic seabreeze will remain east of I-95 as low level steering flow becomes more southwesterly and allow highs to reach the mid 90s east of highway 301 and low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will climb to around 100 degrees as rising dewpoints mix out only to the upper 60s to near 70 in the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday.
A more organized shortwave will race east across the deep south next Monday ahead of a deepening trough over the central US.
Better southwest flow aloft will bump up moisture levels to above normal 1.4-1.6 inches with scattered T'storm coverage in place.
Highs next Monday will again be in the mid 90s east of highway 301 with heat index values rising a bit into the 100-104 degrees from the coast to the St Johns river basin and north central FL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
MVFR CIGS already pushing onshore to the Atlantic Coast ahead of trough over the coastal waters and will bring VCSH to all sites through the morning hours with a slight increase in NE winds to 10-13G15-21 knots through the afternoon hours. CIGS will likely lift upwards to VFR at inland TAF sites but remain close to 3000 ft at the coastal TAF sites through the afternoon. Rainfall chances still too low to include any TEMPO groups at this time but may be needed at SGJ as any heavier showers approach. Shower activity and clouds fade quickly around sunset (00Z) along with diminishing winds and expect VFR conds through the evening hours.
With winds becoming calm at inland sites overnight expect at least some MVFR fog likely at VQQ and possible at GNV/JAX towards sunrise late in the TAF period.
MARINE
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday, winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through Saturday.
.Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 61 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 80 70 83 71 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 83 66 87 68 / 30 10 0 0 SGJ 83 69 85 69 / 40 10 0 0 GNV 87 65 90 67 / 40 10 10 0 OCF 89 66 91 68 / 40 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL | 13 mi | 71 min | NNE 9.9 | 77°F | 30.01 | 71°F | ||
| 41070 | 22 mi | 81 min | 77°F | 4 ft | ||||
| SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL | 27 mi | 56 min | N 19G | 76°F | 78°F | 29.97 | 76°F | |
| 41117 | 36 mi | 60 min | 76°F | 4 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFIN FLAGLER EXECUTIVE,FL | 4 sm | 65 min | NNE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 70°F | 70% | 29.97 | |
| KOMN ORMOND BEACH MUNI,FL | 13 sm | 65 min | N 13 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 77°F | 89% | 29.95 | |
| KDAB DAYTONA BEACH INTL,FL | 21 sm | 20 min | NE 13 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.96 |
Smith Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:24 AM EDT 1.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT 0.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:24 AM EDT 1.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:34 PM EDT 0.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bings Landing, Matanzas River, Florida, Tide feet
Jacksonville, FL,
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