Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bolivar Peninsula, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:13PM Saturday May 27, 2017 6:56 AM CDT (11:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 9:22PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 457 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated showers early in the morning.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 457 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate onshore winds will persist through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually relax Sunday and Monday but rain chances will increase late Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front approaches the coast. Strong Thunderstorms may move into the coastal waters and bays Sunday night or Monday. Persistent moderate southeasterly flow returns Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolivar Peninsula, TX
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location: 29.49, -94.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 270919
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
419 am cdt Sat may 27 2017

Discussion
Persistent southerly flow and cloudy skies this morning have kept
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (about 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year) and a few record high minimum
temperatures may be in danger of being reached or broken today.

Cannot rule out one or two light streamer showers along the coast
this morning, but another hot, humid, and generally dry day is
expected for the region as upper ridging further builds over
southeast texas from the southwest. Similar to yesterday, cloud
cover will play a critical role in how high temperatures will rise
this afternoon. However, a weaker inversion today between 950-850
mb should allow for more breaks in the clouds and temperatures a
few degrees warmer than yesterday in the low to mid 90s inland and
mid to upper 80s along the coast. Combined with ample low level
moisture, this will translate to afternoon heat index values in
the 98 to 105 degree range but breezy 10-15 mph winds should help
provide some relief to individuals outdoors today. Regardless,
heat safety should still be practiced with individuals drinking
plenty of water and taking frequent breaks to allow their bodies
to cool off if working (or playing) outdoors.

Subjective surface analysis as of 05z 12 am cdt showed a surface
trough stretching from colorado south into the low rolling plains
of texas, with associated drylines across west texas and eastern
new mexico and a warm nearly stationary front stretching from
southeastern colorado across northern oklahoma into arkansas.

Early morning water vapor imagery showed an upper trough axis
stretching from california northeast towards an upper low over
manitoba. As this upper trough axis swings into the southern
plains tonight and Sunday, it will send the frontal boundary
located across oklahoma south into texas as a cold front. Rain
chances will begin to increase with the approach of this front.

For areas north of interstate 10, rain chances result from
thunderstorms developing along the cold front and possibly
growing upscale into a thunderstorm complex that may reach parts
of the brazos valley or piney woods region Saturday night into
Sunday morning. For areas south of interstate 10, rain chances
are the result of streamer warm air advection type showers along
the coast early Sunday morning as onshore flow increases ahead of
the front. Rain chances through this time only remain around 20
percent but will continue to increase during the day with the
front's arrival. Otherwise, another morning of elevated onshore
flow and cloudy skies will mean record high minimum temperatures
will again be in danger of being reached on Sunday.

The cold front and its associated thunderstorm activity will
progress into the region from the north sometime during the
afternoon hours on Sunday, and a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the front during this time.

Ample moisture pooling ahead of the front combined with diurnal
destabilization looks to result in strong instability (mlcape
values in excess of 3500 j kg and mid-level lapse rates 7.5-8
c km). Bufr forecast soundings also show quite a bit of dry air
between 900 and 500 mb, which would enhance evaporational cooling
leading to acceleration of downdrafts and the lowering of the
freezing level (aiding hail production). As a result, storms that
are able to develop along the front appear to be capable of a
damaging wind gust or large hail... Should they develop. Overall
shear profiles are only marginally supportive of organized
thunderstorms and 700 mb temperatures are a warm 11-12 degrees c
south of a brenham to cleveland line, which raises questions about
the actual coverage of severe thunderstorms. Given the amount of
instability that is forecast to be present during this time
however, think at least an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm
will be possible north of a brenham to cleveland line during the
afternoon hours. This severe weather threat may linger into the
evening hours, with the threat translating south with the cold
front.

As the front begins to outrun its upper level support during the
evening and overnight hours, it will begin to slow its progress
towards the upper texas coast. However, ongoing thunderstorm
activity and the potential for thunderstorms to produce
downbursts outflow may be able to drive the cold front farther
south than where deterministic model guidance places it by Monday
morning (roughly between interstate 10 and the coast). Where the
front is Monday morning will be key to determining where best rain
chances will materialize as a disturbance lifts across the region
for mexico, but based on latest guidance this appears to be along
the upper texas coast. Continued moisture advection during this
time will result in precipitable water values climbing to the 1.7
to 1.9 inch range on Monday and this atmospheric moisture content
combined with weak mid level flow and a slow-moving to nearly
stationary boundary will result in the potential for at least
locally heavy rain across parts of the region (which will be
better defined when the frontal position becomes more certain).

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end
of the week as weak southwest flow aloft allows embedded
disturbances to translate across the region. Will possibly need to
raise rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday in subsequent
forecasts (should guidance remain consistent) as most medium range
guidance advertises upper level diffluence overspreading the
region (possibly signaling the passage of a weak wave) with
1000-500 mb relative humidity progs advertising a deep saturated
layer in place. Another widespread round of rain is possible
during the upcoming weekend as another wave translates across
southeast texas from the west. Both periods will also need to be
monitored for the threat of at least locally heavy rain... But the
evolution of these portions of the forecast will be heavily
dependent on mesoscale features that evolve from the early week
portion of the forecast.

Huffman

Marine
S-sw flow 15 to 20 knots should prevail early this morning then
gradually diminish to 10 to 15 knots by late morning. As gradient
tightens back up tonight will likely see winds climb back up into
scec criteria between 7p-7a. Seas have diminished to 4 feet at both
bouys. Overall this general pattern of 3 to 4 foot with winds
between 10 and 15 knots should be norm Sunday morning through Sunday
evening. Weakening frontal boundary slides into setx and nears the
coast Sunday night with the potential for mesoscale convective
complexes to push it further south into the gulf Sunday night Monday
and bays and nearshore waters may have fairly significant impacts
with storms... Potentially offshore waters as well depending on how
those play out. Tuesday-Thursday persistent SE flow 10-15 increasing
to 15-20 by Thursday morning. Guidance (ecmwf) in the extended also
brings a system out of the pacific southwest of guatemala northward
across southern mexico and into the gulf becoming a fairly
impressive low Saturday with some very impressive moisture streaming
across the coastal waters into setx thu-sat... Could be some very
unsettled weather (gfs confines big moisture to yucatan area). Stay
tuned.

Beach hazards continue with stronger rip currents and slightly
elevated tide levels. Water temperature this morning was 80 at
galveston pleasure pier. If heading to the beaches, swim near life
guards and stay away from jetties and piers.

45

Aviation
MVFR ceilings blanket the region as expected 1200-2100ft. This
should continue through mid morning then slowly rise with with MVFR
transitioning over theVFR around noon at most sites... Lbx gls more
problematic. Winds will be accelerating inland with strongest winds
probably from psx-cll but even at the main hubs sse 11-15 sustained
with gusts around 20 knots. Rinse and repeat with MVFR ceilings
redeveloping this evening 28 02-04z and prevailing throughout the
night. Will probably be adding vcsh to upcoming suite of tafs for
cll-uts Sunday morning 09-12z and iah 13z.

45

Climate
Near to record high minimum temperatures are possible at all of
the first order climate sites this morning and again Sunday
morning. A listing of the current records is provided below.

May 27
location record high minimum year
city of houston 80 1996
houston hobby 78 1996
college station 77 1924
galveston 80 2000
may 28
location record high minimum year
city of houston 81 1996
houston hobby 79 1996
college station 77 1996
galveston 81 1996

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 94 75 90 70 82 10 10 30 70 60
houston (iah) 93 77 90 74 82 10 10 30 70 70
galveston (gls) 87 80 85 76 82 10 10 20 60 80

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 9 am cdt this morning
for the following zones: waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion climate... 14
aviation marine... 45


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 3 mi38 min S 9.9 G 17 80°F 78°F1013.5 hPa
HIST2 12 mi38 min S 9.9 G 18 79°F 79°F1013.6 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 13 mi44 min S 16 G 21 79°F1012.6 hPa
GTOT2 17 mi38 min 80°F 80°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 19 mi66 min S 19 G 25 79°F 79°F4 ft1012.5 hPa (+0.3)77°F
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 19 mi38 min SSW 18 G 22 80°F 79°F1012.9 hPa
KXIH 22 mi21 min SW 15 81°F 75°F
GRRT2 22 mi38 min S 14 G 19 80°F 80°F1013 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi38 min S 8 G 12 80°F 79°F1012.9 hPa
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 31 mi56 min S 11 G 14 79°F 1013.9 hPa (+0.8)77°F
LYBT2 33 mi38 min S 8.9 G 14 80°F 80°F1012.3 hPa
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 40 mi38 min S 12 G 19 79°F 81°F1015 hPa
TXPT2 40 mi38 min S 17 G 22 79°F 79°F1013.8 hPa
LUIT2 41 mi38 min S 12 G 17 80°F
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 41 mi38 min SSW 6 G 8.9 80°F 79°F1013.1 hPa
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi38 min S 7 G 9.9 79°F 79°F1013.9 hPa
KVBS 49 mi16 min 6 G 14 79°F 75°F

Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX22 mi64 minS 1710.00 miOvercast82°F77°F85%1013.1 hPa
High Island 179A (Apache Corp), LA22 mi61 minSW 195.00 miOvercast with Haze and Breezy81°F75°F84%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from XIH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW17
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2 days agoN12N13N10
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N6N5N7N6N4NE7E6E8SE10S13W17W18SW17W19

Tide / Current Tables for Rollover Pass, Texas
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Rollover Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:09 AM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:16 AM CDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.10.10.10.20.40.711.31.51.61.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.31.31.10.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current
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Galveston Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:00 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM CDT     2.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:14 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:20 PM CDT     -3.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.1-2.3-1.2-01.22.32.92.92.62.11.510.50.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5-1.1-2-2.7-3.2-3.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.