Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 5:53 AM   Moonset 8:16 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS64 KEWX 072327 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 627 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A weak surface boundary has dropped southward into the area into this afternoon. This boundary could waver back and forth over the region into this evening before fizzling. This combined with the daytime heating reaching near or above the convective temperature may possibly yield to an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop across the Hill Country. If a storm is able to form, convective parameters with CAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg along with effective bulk wind shear above 50 knots could result in a storm becoming severe.
Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy downpours would be primary concern with a storm, if it develops. If any cells do develop, they should quickly dissipate by around 10 pm with the increase in convective inhibition. Again, vast majority of South- Central Texas will see no rain this evening. Otherwise, it will remain very warm and humid as the afternoon highs, which top out within the upper 80s and 90s only fall into the low to mid 70s overnight.

The dryline advances eastward into Wednesday afternoon and should get close to the highway 281 corridor. For locations following the dryline on the western side should anticipate a hot but dry heat with westerly winds. Del Rio International looks to threaten the daily high temperature record of 103 set back in 1967. To the east of the dryline, it will be hot and humid with the afternoon highs into the 90s and peak heat indices up into the 100 to 105 degree range for areas along and east of I-35. Capping inversion looks to hold for most on Wednesday with the only area to watch within our region being across our northeastern most counties. The greater forcing along with severe potential looks to maintain just to the northeast of our CWA within the FWD and HGX CWA's, where SPC is pinpointing the higher risk level. We'll closely monitor but will keep the forecast dry for now. Another warm and humid night is otherwise expected Wednesday night with the overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be southwesterly with a strongly tilted trough over the western half of the country at the start of the long term period. A cold front will move through South Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a low chance for rain to the northeastern part of the CWA More significantly it will bring relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the weekend. The upper trough will close off over the Four Corners region Saturday kick out into the southern Plains Sunday. A shortwave trough will move through this pattern. This bring low chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. The better chances will be Sunday with the shortwave overhead. The main trough will swing through Monday and there may be another chance for convection.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions continue until around 04-05Z at I-35 sites and around 08Z at DRT. Low stratus will develop again tonight into Wednesday morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected. Some models develop LIFR conditions near SAT/SSF, but using persistence opted to keep this potential out of the forecast. Areas of fog will also be possible, particularly over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Ceilings will first lift at DRT as a dryline moves over the western half of the area in the morning, eventually lifting in the east during the early afternoon. South to southeasterly wind continues through morning at all sites before winds shift from the northwest at DRT around 13Z. After 18Z the eastern half of the area will see modest west to southwesterly flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 74 92 73 89 / 10 10 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 92 71 89 / 10 10 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 95 72 92 / 10 0 0 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 92 70 87 / 20 10 0 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 105 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 91 72 87 / 20 10 0 30 Hondo Muni Airport 73 99 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 93 72 91 / 10 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 91 74 89 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 96 74 94 / 10 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 75 99 73 94 / 10 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Port Lavaca
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:57 AM CDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:06 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Lavaca, Matagorda Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Austin/San Antonio, TX,