Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:49 AM   Moonset 8:10 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 355 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest late. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Thursday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 355 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will ridge across florida into the eastern gulf of mexico today through Thursday night, with south and southeast winds turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. A cold front will approach the waters Friday and clear the area on Saturday, bringing in a brief increase in winds Friday, and higher rain chances Friday through Saturday.

FXUS62 KJAX 080747 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 347 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

NEAR TERM
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridging extending outward from over the Florida peninsula will dominate the weather pattern today for the southeastern US with mostly clear skies and overhead subsidence inhibiting the development of diurnal sea breeze showers. Patchy to dense early morning fog developments will become dispersed by midmorning. High temperatures over inland areas today will reach up into the lower to mid 90s and into the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coastline.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The forecast Thursday afternoon and evening is fairly complex and contains an unusually high degree of uncertainty. HiRes CAMs have latched onto reinvigorating an MCS as it tracks across SE GA.
With the MCS arriving around the time of peak heating, instability will build to sufficient levels as deep shear increases to around to 30- 40 kts. These ingredients should support the chance for a few more intense storms that may reach severe limits and be capable of straight-line winds 50-60 mph, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. Uncertainty is quite high as the MCS timing and track will be crucial to how far south the severe threat will extend. The SPC has extended the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to the I-10 corridor and a Marginal risk farther south into north- central FL. The severe threat will wane Thursday evening as activity moves offshore.

After a brief lull in the storms Thursday night, a second MCS feature will push in from the west and is a bit slower in it's arrival compared to 24 hrs ago. Now this MCS appears to reach inland areas of SE GA and Suwannee Valley around daybreak Friday at the earliest, though there is still a fair amount of discrepancies regarding the timing. This will bring another potential for scattered strong to severe storms capable of all hazards once again. The cold front will finally push through Friday night and continue the chance for scattered storms across northeast and north-central FL through about midnight. Before the storms arrive in NE FL, tightening gradients will lead to breezy southwest winds during the afternoon with gusts around 25-30 mph south of I-10.

In addition to severe storm potential, hot temperatures with near triple-digit heat index values are expected Thursday before convection arrives. High temps will push into the mid 90s and challenge daily records across the region. Increasing cloud cover and the potential for storms earlier in the day will cap heating to to mid 80s in SE GA and upper 80s to 90 in NE FL on Friday.|

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Cooling temps and lowering humidity will lead to comfortable conditions this weekend as high pressure builds from the north. A wet, stormy and unsettled weather returns again next week as southerly flow attempts to lift the old frontal boundary northward. As it does so, several shortwave disturbance are expected to lift across the region leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will trend cooler but hover near normal through the weekend. Next week temperature forecasts are much trickier as cloud cover and several waves of rain/storms appear likely. That said, heating should be hampered and diurnal ranges should be compressed, keeping afternoon highs below normal and lows above normal.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Initially VFR conditions tonight will give way to SW flow off the Gulf resulting in increased moisture leading to low cloud decks and a potential for MVFR/IFR fog at GNV/VQQ in the 08-13Z time frame, with lower chances for fog at the other TAF sites.
Winds will build from out of the SW Wednesday afternoon with the SE diurnal sea breeze remaining pinned close to the coast.

MARINE
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

High pressure ridge will continue to shift across the area through Thursday, with breezy south winds expected at times.
Offshore winds develop by Thursday night as a cold front approaches the region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for area beaches through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 343 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two inspired by the sea breeze are possible this afternoon. After today, hotter and drier conditions prevail under a building ridge of high pressure Wednesday and Thursday before a late season cold front arrives Friday. Strengthening surface and transport winds from the southwest ahead of the front will build dispersion each day through Friday. High dispersions are expected areawide by Thursday and likely again Friday. A wetter pattern will kickoff with the frontal passage this weekend and should continue into next week.

CLIMATE
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Wednesday May 8th
JAX 96/1959
CRG 93/1977
GNV 97/1955
AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th
JAX 96/1962
CRG 93/2008
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th
JAX 94/2017
CRG 95/2003
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 69 93 71 / 0 0 40 50 SSI 89 71 94 71 / 0 0 20 50 JAX 95 70 96 71 / 0 0 10 30 SGJ 92 71 96 72 / 0 0 10 20 GNV 93 68 93 70 / 0 0 10 20 OCF 94 69 93 72 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Buffalo Bluff
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:58 AM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:28 AM EDT     2.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:36 PM EDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet

Welaka
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:14 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:29 PM EDT     2.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:19 PM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     2.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (5), Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Jacksonville, FL,