Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:16 AM   Moonset 1:21 PM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 921 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast late. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and east 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Monday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 921 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis - High pressure near bermuda continues to ridge westward over florida and into the gulf of mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend. Winds will remain 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.

FXUS62 KJAX 020119 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 900 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Isolated airmass thunderstorms continue this evening, mainly inland northeast FL and southeast GA, with mean steering winds generally from north to south about 10-15 mph. Boundary interactions and ample instability with MLCAPE of to around 800-1400 J/kg allowed a couple of stronger storms to develop with hail and gusty winds. Current stronger storm is just now about to move south of Marion county.
Main updates were to adjust POPs a bit, to expand the slight chances and may need to extend chances further into tonight. Would seem the convection should dissipate all areas by about midnight, but 1 or 2 HRRR model runs suggesting a couple of small showers or a very isolated storm could linger til 1 or even 2 AM tonight. Still anticipate some patchy to areas of fog late tonight and early Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea-breeze begin to pick up, so will the chances for rain and isolated storms today and into the evening. PWAT values continue to increase from 1.3" to 1.5" bringing ample moisture to the area. Showers will begin to pop up along the Sea-breeze boundaries as they make their way inland, increasing in chances as daytime heating and sea-breezes converge inland. Severe weather is highly unlikely, with no upper level support and dry air aloft. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80s inland, staying in the low to mid 80s along the coast.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s with chances of patchy to widespread fog possible in the early morning hours.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

A transition to a slightly stronger east coast sea breeze regime with the best chance of scattered late afternoon showers and maybe a thunderstorm focused toward the I-75 corridor & inland SE GA westward where sea breezes and boundaries merge. Thursday, convection will be more limited than today given a building ridge aloft and even drier PWAT near to just below climo values around 1.1 to 1.2 inches, but enough low level instability will be in place to fuel some updrafts near boundary mergers. By Friday, even drier air with PWAT < 1 inch will focus east of Highway 301 while deeper moisture ahead of an approaching short wave trough will move across our western zones during the afternoon and into the evening which could trigger some late day and overnight convection across SE GA. Winds will gust between 20-25 mph at the coast trailing the east coast sea breeze each afternoon into the early evening. Temperatures will trend near to above normal with highs nearing 90 inland to mid 80s coast under the onshore flow. Low temperatures will range in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Sat & Sun...Elevated rain chances this weekend as a slow moving short wave trough crosses the area and interacts with diurnal instability and mesoscale boundaries. The higher shower and t'storm chances will focus across inland SE GA both days, with more scattered convection across NE FL. The main weather concerns this weekend will be localized heavy rainfall given weak storm motion < 10 kts and above normal PWAT over 1.5 inches. Shear and lapse rate profiles do not favor severe thunderstorm potential.
Above normal temperatures in the mid/upper 80s will be tempered by clouds and convection with mild lows in the 60s.

Mon through Wed...A warming to HOT trend ensues next week as 'stacked' high pressure from the surface to aloft builds across the region, which will limit deep convective growth and thus rain chances despite elevated PWATs. Monday, another passing short wave could trigger some showers mainly across SE GA while low level ridging begins to build across the FL peninsula. Upper ridging amplifies across the eastern Gulf Tue & Wed while the low level ridge axis holds across the FL peninsula. Although a rogue sea breeze shower is not completely unlikely, rain chances will be limited with the main weather story being the near record highs in the low to mid 90s for inland areas by Wed.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions domiante and looks like some VCSH still warranted near GNV and JAX through about 03z-04z. Some patchy fog expected near VQQ and GNV late tonight. Otherwise, no other significant changes with the TAFs for now.

MARINE
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Winds will be picking up as surges of onshore winds of 8 to 10 knots from the Atlantic sea breeze shift inland. Slight chance (10%)for isolated showers and storms over the local waters today as the Atlantic sea-breeze pushes its way inland. High pressure ridging dominates the the coastal waters for most of the period with slight chances for showers over the weekend in the afternoon.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continue for NE FL beaches today with a moderate risk on Thursday as seas subside.
Moderate risk of rip currents continue for SE GA beaches through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 90 65 89 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 68 81 67 81 / 10 0 0 10 JAX 66 86 65 86 / 10 10 0 10 SGJ 67 84 67 84 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 64 89 64 89 / 30 30 0 10 OCF 65 90 65 90 / 30 20 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...None.
AM...None.

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Buffalo Bluff
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:14 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:47 PM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida (3), Tide feet

Welaka
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:20 AM EDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     3.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 10:35 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:53 PM EDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     3.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:02 PM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida (4), Tide feet

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