Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 2:01 PM

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GMZ538 Expires:202405041515;;581621 Fzus54 Klix 040243 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 943 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-041515- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 943 pm cdt Fri may 3 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet.

GMZ500 943 Pm Cdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through mid next week.

FXUS64 KLIX 040233 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 933 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 928 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall, forecast is in decent shape, although may push an update just to remove evening low end PoPs from northwest corner of the CWA Will also update hourly temperature/dew point grids to reflect current trends, but not adjusting overnight lows at this time.

There is at least a small threat of fog over southwest Mississippi overnight for a few hours, but we've already got a mention of fog there. Not enough confidence to justify an advisory at this time.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An MCS that developed near the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana border last night is now almost completely east of the CWA After peaking in intensity nearly 12 hours ago, it's steadily weakened and is barely discernable on radar. Even with an embedded MCV, still seen on radar in southwest Mississippi, there's no appreciable winds associated with it.

The remainder of the afternoon and evening may still have intermittent rain in the early portions of this period. KLCH radar shows continued thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary along the coastline. Latest trends as well as CAMs suggest that convection will remain along the coast with just a few showers possibly reaching western portions of SELA before all dissipating around sunset.

For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest. There's some hints on the 500mb maps that indicate a weak shortwave will pass across the area.
Not sure how much that matter with mid 80s to 90 degrees at the surface, still cool aloft, and ample moisture at the surface. This setup is pretty textbook early summertime pattern with the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Although not outlooked by SPC, marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds will be possible.
Coverage will be limited, however, so may only see a couple to few storms with any appreciable intensity. Sunday will be nearly a complete repeat of Saturday with yet another shortwave passing SW to NE across the lower MS Valley and possibly aiding in the development of afternoon storms
Looking at same area of impact
SW MS and adjacent LA parishes. Probably won't see much, if any, convection south of I-12.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper level flow pattern along the Gulf Coast will be somewhat zonal but with a slight northern expansion of the ridge centered south of the local area. This will provide subsidence to stunt convection as well as moderate already above normal temps. Guidance spread is surprisingly minimal mid week when forecast temps are in the lower to mid 90s. No, not earth shattering warm, but that's at or above records for this time of year. Heat Risk will likely be elevated for sensitive groups.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

All terminals currentlyy VFR, although a few are reporting scattered clouds around FL020-025. Later in the night, expect MVFR ceilings to become fairly common, but the only terminal I currently have forecast to experience IFR or lower conditions would be KMCB (LIFR) for a few hours around sunrise. Cumulus redevelopment expected around 14-15z Saturday, with MVFR ceilings possible. there's at least some threat of convective development across northwest sections by the afternoon hours. Will carry VCTS at KMCB/KBTR/KHDC from about 19z Saturday until sunset. Can't rule out remaining terminals seeing at least isolated convection Saturday afternoon, but probabilities too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MCS feature mentioned in previous forecast passed right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. It steadily decayed throughout the day which limited its ability to produce winds over 30kts.
Residual westerly winds from this MCS are collapsing and gradient onshore flow will resume. Surface ridge centered east of the region and extending across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts throughout the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 63 85 64 83 / 10 30 10 40 BTR 68 89 69 87 / 10 20 0 40 ASD 68 87 69 86 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 71 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 20 GPT 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10 PQL 67 87 67 87 / 10 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Manilla
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Fri -- 03:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:05 PM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Independence Island
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Fri -- 03:23 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM CDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:15 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:02 PM CDT     0.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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