Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lafitte, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:23PM Monday October 22, 2018 3:22 AM CDT (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:35PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ538 Chandeleur Sound-breton Sound- 939 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 21 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 4 am cdt Monday...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 939 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 21 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the coastal waters tonight and remain in place through Monday. A low pressure system will develop over the northwest gulf Monday and Tuesday. This broad area of low pressure will gradually strengthen and push eastward across the north central gulf on Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lafitte, LA
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location: 29.54, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 212032
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
332 pm cdt Sun oct 21 2018

Short term
Fall weather has returned to the area with temperatures actually
below normal for the first time in awhile. 1030mb+ surface high
pressure is building in from the north and will continue to do so
through Monday as it slides east to the atlantic coast. The post
frontal air mass has ushered in mid 30 dewpoints. They should be
bottoming out tonight. On the temperature side, 500mb height falls
and relatively strong cold air advection has kept highs limited to
around 70 today. Although winds will weaken some overnight, the
pressure gradient will be tight enough to maintain about 5kts of
wind. Thinking that this will hinder cooling and therefore stayed on
the warmer side of guidance, if not a degree or 2 above it.

Long term
The subtropical jet will begin transporting moisture across mexico
and texas on Monday as an upper ridge near the northern caribbean
shifts west. As this moisture surges northeast towards the cwa, a
reinforcing surface ridge will be pushing back south towards the
gulf. This will create a situation with warm moisture overrunning
cooler drier air. The result will be stratiform rainfall across the
forecast area with the highest coverage along the coast and minimal
qpf in SW mississippi.

A mid latitude shortwave tracking across the country Wednesday will
break down the ridge aloft. As it moves east into the midsection of
the country, it will be drawing the remnants of hurricane wilma
(currently in the epac) across the texas coast and then through the
cwa. Models do indicate cyclogenesis takes place as it passes through
Wednesday night but it should be a cold core (non-tropical) low. If
the current model tracks are right, its a good thing for the local
area. Being right over the CWA to along the coast means the warm
sector where potentially severe storms could be will be in coastal
waters. It bears watching where this low track if it does form at
all. Regardless, confidence is increasing on about a 12 hour period
of 80-100% coverage mid week (timing may change some from now till
then).

Models then suggest a reinforcing trough will bring a front through
the area going into next weekend which will flush out the moisture.

This will lead to below normal temps and no rain possibly through
early next week. Timing for the following system may be close in
regards to precip and halloween.

Meffer

Aviation
Vfr category conditions are expected at all of the terminals through
the TAF forecast period. 11

Marine
Strong northeast flow will slowly diminish to some degree tonight
with the small craft advisory transitioning to exercise caution
headlines for most of the gulf coastal waters. Moderate to
occasionally strong northeast to easterly flow will then generally
prevail through midweek as an area of low pressure developing in the
northwest gulf of mexico moves east across northern gulf. In the
wake of the low, moderate northerly winds will develop across the
coastal waters for the end of the week. 11
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 43 72 52 71 10 10 20 20
btr 46 73 56 70 10 10 30 40
asd 47 75 59 72 10 10 40 50
msy 57 74 62 72 10 10 50 60
gpt 50 75 61 72 10 10 40 50
pql 46 76 60 74 10 10 40 40

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz550-552-
555-557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 20 mi35 min ENE 12 G 16 67°F 78°F1019.5 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 26 mi35 min NE 1.9 G 6 59°F 74°F1021 hPa
CARL1 27 mi35 min 70°F
KXPY 30 mi28 min NE 12 68°F 57°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 31 mi35 min NE 16 G 18 64°F 74°F1020.6 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 34 mi35 min ENE 17 G 19 63°F 72°F1020.7 hPa
KDLP 40 mi28 min ENE 13 72°F 59°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 45 mi54 min ENE 15 G 19 70°F 3 ft1019.1 hPa57°F
PILL1 49 mi35 min ENE 4.1 G 6 67°F 73°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA13 mi28 minNNE 610.00 miFair63°F50°F65%1020.3 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi88 minNNE 510.00 miFair61°F50°F67%0 hPa

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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NE7NE5N6NE3NE5NE6NE8NE5NE7NE7NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S7S6SW6S6SW7N11
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2 days agoNE6NE4NE5NE3NE4E4NE5NE6E5E8E8E5S7SE5E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM CDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:33 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.60.60.70.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM CDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:30 PM CDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:29 PM CDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.