Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kemah, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:10PM Friday February 15, 2019 9:42 PM CST (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 2:02PMMoonset 3:17AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 932 Pm Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Saturday...
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy dense fog late in the evening, then areas of dense fog after midnight. A slight chance of showers late.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers early in the morning. Patchy dense fog in the morning.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog until early morning. A slight chance of showers in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers.
Tuesday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Showers likely.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 932 Pm Cst Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A weak cold front will move into southeast texas overnight and is expected to stall near the coast on Saturday. Periods of possibly dense sea fog can be expected until another cold front moves across the waters on Sunday. Caution flags are anticipated and small craft advisories might be needed at the end of the weekend and on into early next week due to strengthening northeast winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemah, TX
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location: 29.55, -94.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 152356
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
556 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019

Update
Developing sea fog on the gulf has pushed onto barrier islands early
this evening. Galveston has reported 1 4-1 2 mile fog recently, and
webcams in galveston and along the southeast texas coastline do not
look promising, and fog should hang with us through the night. A
dense fog advisory has been issued for all of our barrier islands,
including galveston island and the bolivar peninsula.

There is at least some guidance suggesting that the dense sea fog
may begin to push over coastal portions of the mainland, but there
is still uncertainty as to how far inland the most dense fog will
push. Will maintain a watch on the fog's progress, and will add
coastal areas on the mainland if the fog shows signs of pushing in.

Luchs

Aviation
Cold front will be working its way into southeast texas tonight. Models
are providing different solutions as to where the front will eventually
stall tomorrow (maybe staying just inland, maybe off the middle texas
coast but not not reaching the galveston bay area, maybe all the way
off the coast?), and this is resulting in a low confidence forecast
for the 00z tafs. Expecting to see winds shift to the north behind
the front as it works its way into the area with south to southeast
winds persisting ahead of the boundary. Ceilings will be lowering behind
the front (mainly MVFR ifr), and ceilings and visibilities will be lowering
ahead of the front (mainly ifr lifr), especially near the southern
taf sites closest to the bays and coast. Might not see much improvement
during the day tomorrow (mainly MVFR at best?). 42

Prev discussion issued 403 pm cst Fri feb 15 2019
discussion...

partially cloudy skies with very warm conditions further within
the interior where there has been just as much Sun as cloud cover.

Quite the temperature gradient across the CWA just this hour as it
has hit 80 f in college station but still remains in the upper
60s along the coastline where shallow water temperatures hover
around 60 f. While the weekend will remain mostly dry there is
still much challenge to handle in the short term temperature and
fog forecast that centers around an approaching evening cold front.

The next cold front is currently moving through the texas
panhandle and the red river valley. After reviewing the current
synoptic state and model ensemble, it appears the best consensus
will be to bring this shallow cold air mass front to our northerly
doorstep around midnight tonight. As the air mass slowly modifies
on its southern trek, it will slow and eventually hang up somewhere
over the southern third of the forecast area tomorrow morning.

This will create an even greater temperature gradient across the
region tomorrow afternoon. Post-frontal cold air advection and a
lower stratus deck created by moisture being trapped under the
frontal inversion leans the forecast colder than GFS euro but not
as cold as the higher resolution modeling (nam wrf). Thus, have
attempted to split the difference between the extreme solutions
and have broken tomorrow's temp behavior in geographic thirds from
north to south. If the front does hang up just shy of the coast
(as is currently progged) then northern tier tmaxs may struggle to
reach the lower to middle 60s while coastal counties will again
reach the mean lower to middle 70s. Fog will be tricky as the most
efficient fog development and severity of such will strictly be
dependent upon the front's eventual resting place. As of now,
forecasting inland coastal county patchy fog in the vicinity of
the stalled boundary and more areawide dense sea fog over the
bays nearshore waters from midnight on through the late Saturday
morning hours.

Overnight Saturday into Sunday will remain overcast with returning
sea fog issues Sunday morning; mints in the lower to middle 50s
up north, lower 60s over the southern third of the forecast area.

The movement of the associated surface low shallow ohio valley
upper trough's eastward movement on Sunday during the day will
allow a secondary northerly push of energy into our area. This
will aid in pushing the near coastal boundary offshore and ending
the coastal marine fog threat. Maxts will warm within the interior
as Saturday's shallow cold air will modify enough on Sunday to
allow warming to again produce inland upper 60 to lower 70s coastal
upper 60s under a more established north flow Sunday afternoon.

The southwesterly deepening of the next western u.S. Trough on
washington's birthday will place eastern texas in a isentropic
upglide set-up through mid-week. Warmer, more moist southwesterly
flow atop cooler and drier near surface northeasterlies will keep
early week skies overcast and generate either periods of light,
steady rain or brief showers. The passage of weak disturbances
within this southwesterly mid-layer steering flow will induce
periodic bouts of heavy rain and or rumbles of elevated thunder.

Other than on the coast or over upper texas coast gulf waters
where storms may better root within the marine layer, thunderstorms
will likely remain elevated and not be an inland issue. Cooler
conditions will prevail next week with many days registering near
normal overnight temperatures on either side of 50 f with days
struggling to make it out of the 50s through mid week. A
reinforcing mid week front will aid in maintaining this days long
north to northeast wind. Very minor warming at week's close as
region may experience more sun, but pleasant at this time next
week; low to mid 50s in the morning middle 60s during the afternoon.

31
marine...

weak low pressure was noted over NE tx this afternoon with a cold
front extending west across the panhandle. The low will move e-se
toward SE tx tonight and drag a cold front south across the state
but there is some uncertainty on far sse the front will move. At
this time, it appears the front will stall very close to the coast
and then retreat north as a warm front late Saturday afternoon.

Global models support this solution as do neighboring offices and
wpc. If this solution verifies, warm and moist air will continue
to flow over the cooler shelf waters and sea fog will develop. For
the sake of continuity, have leaned toward this solution.

The NAM and hires models support the front reaching the coastal
waters with a light offshore wind developing. This scenario is
plausible as pressures over the panhandle are higher than the
pressures in deep south texas. This scenario would bring slightly
drier air into the coastal waters and limit the threat for sea fog.

Mariners should keep up with the latest forecast as only a minor
change in the front's timing or position could yield significant
impacts.

A stronger cold front will cross the coastal waters late Sunday.

High pressure will build into the central plains in the wake of the
front. The pressure gradient will tighten between the high and a
trough of low pressure over the western gulf. This will allow a
moderate to occasionally strong nne wind for much of the week ahead.

A scec or SCA may be required at times for the much of the coastal
waters next week. Tide levels will approach 3 feet on Monday afternoon
due to strong NE winds and an unusually high astronomical high tide. 43

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 50 67 56 69 46 0 0 20 10 10
houston (iah) 60 71 62 73 51 10 10 30 30 20
galveston (gls) 61 67 62 67 56 10 10 20 40 20

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for the following
zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and bolivar
peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Saturday for the following
zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island to
freeport tx out 20 nm... Galveston bay... Matagorda bay.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 6 mi49 min SSW 7 G 8.9 66°F 62°F1008.5 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 9 mi49 min SSW 6 G 11 70°F 60°F1008.5 hPa
GRRT2 18 mi49 min S 6 G 8 65°F 61°F1008.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 19 mi49 min S 6 G 8 65°F 59°F1007.9 hPa
GTOT2 19 mi49 min S 6 G 8.9 67°F 59°F1008 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 20 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 9.9 70°F 65°F1007.7 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 24 mi49 min S 4.1 G 7 64°F 63°F1008.4 hPa
HIST2 31 mi49 min SSW 6 G 8.9 66°F 62°F1008.8 hPa
LUIT2 34 mi49 min S 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 1008 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 37 mi43 min S 3.9 G 7.8 65°F 63°F1009.3 hPa (+1.0)
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 45 mi49 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 60°F1008.6 hPa
FPST2 46 mi49 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 60°F1007.7 hPa

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi1.9 hrsSSW 117.00 miOvercast70°F62°F78%1008.5 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi50 minSW 8 G 146.00 miFog/Mist70°F68°F93%1008.7 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX18 mi50 minSW 86.00 miFog/Mist70°F66°F87%1008.7 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX20 mi51 minS 84.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F93%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S6S4--S3--S3--S4S3SE3----S10S13S13SW11S13
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1 day agoCalmSE4SE3--S4S4S3--CalmCalmSE3S5S15S19
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2 days agoNW8N7NW4N6N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4--E6S6SE8E7SE7S8S10SE10SE7S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:17 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:59 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:50 PM CST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:02 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:15 PM CST     0.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.20-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.60.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:15 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:56 AM CST     -2.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:58 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:36 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:19 PM CST     2.15 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:02 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:08 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:41 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1-1.4-1.7-2-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.1-0.50.31.21.82.12.11.81.310.70.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.