Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
El Lago, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:15PM Monday May 29, 2017 2:47 AM CDT (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:25AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1028 Pm Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night through Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1028 Pm Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Showers and Thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead of a cold front that will be moving toward the coast tonight. Persistent moderate southeast winds are expected from Tuesday through Friday along with periods of showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Lago, TX
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location: 29.56, -95.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 290455
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1155 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017

Aviation
Shra tsra continue moving through southeast texas late this evening.

06z tafs have a mix of shra and tsra, especially at the southern sites,
for the overnight hours. Expect to see activity decrease in coverage
from N to S overnight, but any boundaries lingering in the area could
lead to additional development during the day tomorrow. For this reason,
leaving vcsh and vcts in the tafs for much of the day tomorrow and
on into tomorrow evening. 42

Prev discussion issued 1044 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017
update...

currently showers and thunderstorms are draped across generally a
line from colorado county over to polk liberty co line. The cold
front itself appears to still be hung up over fwds area, with
the showers and storms pushing southeast through our area along an
outflow boundary. Pretty much all of the upcoming forecast depends
heavily on where these two boundaries end up heading into
tomorrow. For now, the severe threat seems to be diminishing and
transitioning into more of a heavy rainfall event. We've already
had many reports of road closures up in crockett due to high
water, and the kshv radar has estimated around 4 to 7 inches of
rain up in houston county over the course of the evening, starting
around 4-5 pm. Luckily it seems that the current line of storms
has slightly picked up in speed, and as long as it keeps moving
the flooding threat should be limited to nuisance flooding.

However, additional problems may occur if storms develop further
north and move across some of the already harder hit areas.

Heading into overnight tonight tomorrow... Forecast depends on
where the two aforementioned boundaries end up. Short term
guidance is suggesting the outflow boundary from the current line
of storms may end up somewhere near along the coast with the cold
front itself somewhere near the hwy 59 corridor. Current activity
should generally diminish overnight well inland with the loss of
daytime heating forcing. Showers and storms will likely flare up
again tomorrow after sunrise as a disturbance currently near
laredo pushes eastward towards our area. This will likely cause a
blossoming of showers thunderstorms across much of SE texas, with
a general focus near the coastal areas where the remnant outflow
will likely be. Right now, the activity tomorrow looks to be more
of a heavy rainfall threat than anything with forecast pws in the
2.2-2.4 inch range. 11
prev discussion... Issued 624 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017
aviation...

area should see increasing shra tsra coverage this evening as activity
builds in from the N and NW along and ahead of a cold front. 00z tafs
are messy with lots of vcsh and vcts. After this evening, there are
lots of timing uncertainties concerning not only the possible shra tsra
but also wind directions and ceilings as we move into the overnight
hours and on into the day tomorrow. Generally going with MVFR ceilings
overnight becomingVFR tomorrow afternoon with MVFR ifr levels quite
possible in and around the shra tsra. 42
prev discussion... Issued 346 pm cdt Sun may 28 2017
discussion...

line of storms likely about to fire along a frontal boundary
draped across ncntl texas. As previously talked about, the atmos
is very unstable in advance W high capes and low li's. Anticipate
some severe storms to emerge as they make their way into SE tx
this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect generally
northwest of a columbus-livingston line until 10 pm. Dependent on
strength movement trends, we may end up needing to add the metro
area to the watch as well. Aircraft soundings around there still
indicate some capping at 700mb, but has eroded some since this
morning. Almost all hazards are are the table with hail winds the
primary threat, followed by localized heavy rain amounts & rates,
and finally a low (but non-zero) chance of a tornado.

This storm complex will send a boundary southward, and this will
determine the overall threat and or locations for future hazardous
wx as another shortwave makes its way in from the SW late tonight
and Monday. Ongoing thinking continues to point to the southern
1 3 of the region being the more favored spot, but if a boundary
ends up well off the coast later tonight, pops and QPF amounts
will need to be adjusted downward Monday. Unfortunately, but not
unexpectedly, there isn't a good model consensus.

Coastal troffiness is expected into midweek. Deeper moisture and convergence
along the trof (along with some passing upper impulses) will probably
trigger overnight and morning precip closer to the coast followed
by inland expansion with daytime heating. Looks like the trof
could wash out and we'd lose a surface focusing mechanism later in
the week, but atmos still looks plenty moist for higher end &
diurnally driven pops through the remainder of the work week.

There will probably be some locations we'll need to keep an eye on
as we go thru the week as rainfall adds up. As ground gets more
saturated it won't be able to absorb as much water, and higher
rain rates themselves could become more of a problem in regards to
flash flooding as this occurs. 47
marine...

southeasterly winds have picked back up from earlier this morning.

These may reach into caution criteria later tonight. Otherwise,
showers and thunderstorms could become focused along the coast
south of freeport overnight tonight and then up the coast during the
day on Monday. Models continued to struggle as to the timing and
location of thunderstorm development. Winds should become more
easterly on Monday before returning to the southeast Monday night.

Southeasterly winds are then expected for the remainder of the week
with the strongest winds during the night and early morning
periods. 40

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 69 80 68 85 69 80 50 30 40 30
houston (iah) 74 80 69 85 71 70 70 50 50 30
galveston (gls) 77 82 74 83 76 60 80 60 50 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... High rip current risk until midnight cdt tonight for the
following zones: brazoria... Chambers... Galveston...

matagorda.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 11
aviation marine... 42


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 9 mi48 min NNE 1 G 5.1 72°F 81°F1014.9 hPa (-1.4)
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 9 mi48 min N 9.9 G 14 74°F 82°F1015.2 hPa (-1.6)
LYBT2 14 mi48 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 71°F 82°F1014.4 hPa (-1.0)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi48 min E 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 81°F1014.9 hPa (-1.2)
GRRT2 20 mi48 min N 12 G 16 73°F 84°F1015.3 hPa (-1.1)
GTOT2 22 mi48 min 74°F 82°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi48 min N 18 G 22 82°F1014.7 hPa (-1.5)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 29 mi48 min NNE 14 G 17 71°F 78°F1015.4 hPa (-1.5)
LUIT2 34 mi48 min NNW 22 G 30 72°F 83°F
HIST2 35 mi48 min NNE 8 G 9.9 69°F 82°F1015.9 hPa (-1.1)
KXIH 38 mi33 min NE 22 G 27 73°F 68°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 41 mi58 min N 23 G 27 74°F 80°F5 ft1014.5 hPa (-1.7)70°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 45 mi48 min NNW 22 G 29 72°F 82°F1015.8 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX8 mi3 hrsENE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1017.3 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX11 mi55 minNNW 97.00 miThunderstorm Rain73°F69°F87%1015.9 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX14 mi55 minE 410.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain70°F69°F97%1015.6 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX21 mi73 minESE 113.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F68°F94%1014.9 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX22 mi56 minN 16 G 2610.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1015.6 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX23 mi73 minE 84.00 miThunderstorm Rain68°F66°F94%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S10------S7S6S5S5CalmE3E10SE12SE11SE11SE10SE11SE11SE13S8E3E3SE3E7
1 day agoSE9S10S6S10S10S8S8S9S11S14S12S14S14
G20
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S14SE12SE13S13S11S8SE8S10S10
2 days agoS7S8S8S6S5SE3S3S7S5S10S13S12S13S11S12S14S12S9SE8SE11SE9S10SE8SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:45 AM CDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:03 PM CDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM CDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.200.30.50.70.80.90.80.80.70.70.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM CDT     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:11 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:42 AM CDT     2.16 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:49 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.2-2.2-2-1.7-1-0.20.81.62.12.221.61.310.60.3-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.7-0.9-1.2-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.