Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201905210300;;179972 Fzus52 Kjax 201856 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 256 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-210300- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 256 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Tonight..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night and Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 256 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis.. Surface high pressure persists through midweek before a weak frontal boundary moves across the waters from the northeast Wednesday evening into Thursday. High pressure builds once again toward the end of the week and into memorial day weekend.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2019 at 1200 utc... 58 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 76 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 83 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Beach, FL
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location: 29.58, -81.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 201950
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
350 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Wildfire risk will increase as a heat wave takes shape during
the memorial day weekend...

Rest of today...

satellite imagery this afternoon reveals widespread cumulus as
there is sufficient low level moisture for cumulus development,
however, an elevated inversion around 700 mb continues to suppress
the overall growth. A few isolated showers have been observed
along the westward moving east-coast sea breeze, but they quickly
dissipate after developing. Above 700 mb, the air is incredibly
dry requiring much stronger updrafts for showers isolated
thunderstorms to survive. As the afternoon continues, weak surface
convergence along the sea-breeze should assist in the growth of a
few showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, mainly south of
i-10. These showers decrease into the evenings with a mostly clear
night expected. Temperatures this afternoon are climbing into the
low 90s with 93 degrees recently observed in hazelhurst, ga.

Across florida, gainesville is the hot spot with 91 degrees
observed. Temperatures climb a couple degrees warmer by late
afternoon before cooling into the mid and upper 60s inland and
low 70s along the coast.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday...

the large trough and jet streak bringing severe weather across
the central plains today, will be to blame for the development of
an extended dry and hot period for the entire southeast. On
Tuesday, the longwave ridge axis will stretch from the central
gulf of mexico into the southeast. With the ridge axis overhead
and weak surface flow, Tuesday will likely be the warmest day
during the short term forecast period as temperatures range. Into
Wednesday and Thursday, easterly flow will increase as a back
door front moves toward the east coast during the day on
Wednesday. This allows for stronger onshore flow, especially
Thursday. The greatest improvement to maximum temperatures will be
felt along the i-95 corridor where temperatures struggle to reach
the 90s on Thursday. For inland areas, low to mid 90s are
forecast through the forecast period. Overall, precipitation
chances are very low with mid-level subsidence and 700 mb capping
inversion above the boundary mixed- layer. As has been the case
over the last few days, any showers that form will likely be short
lived. With high confidence, it can be stated that no widespread
rainfall is expected in the short term.

Long term Friday through Monday
while the short term period is expected to be a few degrees above
normal, concern for dangerous maximum temperatures begins Friday
and continues into memorial day weekend where all-time may
monthly record high temperatures may be challenged. Forecast
models suggest an extremely deep ridge forms over the southeast at
the beginning of the long term period and remains through early
next week. Adiabatic warming drying associated with subsidence in
the atmosphere creates a daily repetitive cycle of temperatures
increasing 30-35 degrees from early morning into late afternoon
before dropping 30-35 degrees overnight. Digging through previous
upper air soundings upper level map analyses reveals that the
forecast 500 mb heights of 593-594 dm pushes the limits for what
has been observed for late may. With this in mind, it is not
irresponsible to forecast temperatures around all-time monthly
(100-101 degrees) high temperatures through memorial day weekend.

Trends will have to be monitored with regards to the strength of
the ridge as the weekend approaches. The only saving grace with
regards to the expected heat wave is that dewpoint temperatures
are expected to drop into the 50 60s during the peak heating
hours, keeping heat indices near the actual surface temperatures.

Additionally, the atlantic sea-breeze will help provide relief for
coastal regions by mid afternoon. Even with these factors
included, it appears a long duration is set to take place late
this week and into early next week.

Aviation
PrevailingVFR conditions through this evening with brief
restriction potential at vqq & gnv due passing showers. Will
monitor radar trends to see if tempo groups need to be included as
rainfall is expected to be sparse and limited. Ese winds will
increase near 10-13 kts along the coast this afternoon as east
coast sea breeze develops and presses inland, crossing gnv around
sunset. Winds decrease below 5 kts by midnight, with directions
backing ssw with land breeze overnight. May see some patchy ground
fog toward sunrise, and included MVFR at vqq and gnv based on
persistence.

Fire weather
An extended period of hot and dry weather through the weekend.

Although red flag conditions are not expected, there will be an
elevated fire danger with only spotty rainfall expected through
mid-week. Temperatures will warm well into the 90s each day with
afternoon humidity ranging between 30-40%. Winds will be mainly
local terrain influenced, with daily sea breezes, river breezes
and lake breezes. Any showers or isolated thunderstorms will
produce erratic winds and wind shifts that could impact fire
sites. Isolated storms will have the potential to trigger
lightning initiated fires, as is the case in the okefenokee nwr
from a storm Sat night.

Climate
Maximum temperatures this week will challenge records at climate
sites:
mon 5 20 tue 5 21 wed 5 22 thu 5 23 fri 5 24
jax 99 1962 99 1938 99 1938 97 1960 98 1953
gnv 97 1938 100 1938 100 1938 98 1899 98 1893
amg 99 1962 97 1962 99 2011 97 2011 & 1962 99 1960
ssi 95 2006 98 1962 94 2006 & 1962 98 1956 96 1953

Marine
Weak area of surface high pressure persists over area waters
through mid-week before a frontal boundary moves through Wednesday
night into Thursday. Seas may reach caution levels off shore late
Wednesday night into Thursday as the pressure gradient increases
ahead of a strong high pressure system dropping southward from the
northeast. High pressure remains in the area through the rest of
the forecast period with weak winds and sea-breeze surges during
the late afternoon periods.

Rip currents: moderate risk the rest of today with onshore flow.Of
10-15 knots.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 68 95 70 94 0 0 10 10
ssi 72 88 74 86 0 0 0 10
jax 70 93 70 91 0 0 0 10
sgj 70 87 70 86 0 0 0 10
gnv 68 94 69 94 20 0 10 10
ocf 68 93 69 94 20 0 10 10

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Mcginnis enyedi cordero


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 7 mi65 min ESE 8.9 82°F 1017 hPa73°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 20 mi50 min ESE 14 G 15 79°F 83°F1015.5 hPa (-2.1)70°F
RCYF1 26 mi32 min 86°F
41117 29 mi50 min 80°F2 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL19 mi60 minESE 1010.00 miFair84°F69°F62%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
G15
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NW10NW10NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
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Mon -- 03:03 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:17 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:27 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.11.21.10.90.70.40.2000.20.40.70.910.90.80.60.40.200.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for St. Augustine Beach, Florida (2)
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St. Augustine Beach
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Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:01 AM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:32 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.431.60.5-00.41.32.63.84.64.94.73.82.71.40.50.10.51.52.8455.65.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.