Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Coast, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday and Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis.. A trough of low pressure over the gulf will bring waves of unsettled weather. A moderate southeasterly flow will continue over area waters through the weekend and result in elevated seas. Surface high pressure will remain over the western atlantic centered east of bermuda through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Coast, FL
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location: 29.58, -81.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 201753
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
153 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Near term this evening through Monday
This evening and tonight... Surface low pressure toughing over
the eastern gulf of mexico will slowly shift west with the bermuda
ridge expanding westward across the region into Monday. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms will gradually shift west this
afternoon and this evening toward the west coast and big bend.

Still overnight it looks like a convergent zone will continue from
the CAPE canaveral region to near thomasville and with
precipitable water (pwat) at and above 2 inches in that area
overnight, expect to hang onto rainfall into the early morning
hours. Over coastal georgia and the jacksonville metro area pwats
drop into the 1 to 1.5 inch range with some drying in that area
overnight but we will hang onto cloudiness overnight. Lows will be
in the upper 60s inland with the lower to mid 70s along the
coast.

Monday... On Monday the main moisture axis with pwats of 1.5 to
2.25 inches will extend from CAPE canaveral to southwest georgia
and this will be the main axis of likely precipitation for the
afternoon and evening when diurnal heating is greatest. Skies will
be mostly cloudy so expect a slow start to the precipitation but
may see some locally heavy downpours across the area. Coastal
georgia and the jacksonville metro areas will be a bit drier with
pwats in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range but with the southeasterly flow
around both the troughing in the gulf and the bermuda ridge there
will be a few bands of showers coming in from off the ocean and
across that area. With abundant cloud cover the high temperatures
will be in the lower 80s in inland areas and with the onshore flow
the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
On Monday night initially the main moisture band with pwats above
2 inches will be west of i-75 with some heavy showers and
thunderstorms out there until the early morning hours. Also with
the onshore flow might see some light rain or showers impinging
along the coast. Lows look to be in the upper 60s inland with the
lower 70s along the coast.

Tuesday and Tuesday evening... The day will start off mostly cloudy
with a few light showers or patchy light rain about. Weak low
pressure will continue over the eastern gulf with the main
moisture feed now coming up along the west coast of florida with
pwats of 1.5 to 2 inches. This will fire off another round of
afternoon and evening showers and embedded thunderstorms with the
main axis from trail ridge westward. Overnight we should see
another break in the precipitation with mostly cloudy skies. Highs
Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows Tuesday night
in the upper 60s inland and the mid 70s coastal.

Wednesday... Looks to be an instant repeat of Tuesday with afternoon
and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy
downpours. There is really no change in the positioning of the
moisture feed over the region and with daytime heating nothing to
stop a good chance of rainfall across the entire forecast area.

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
So like yesterday the long term outlook hinges on what happens in
the northwestern caribbean and frankly that could be just about
anything!
1. UKMET just keeps the low spinning in the caribbean central america.

2. The GFS operational and ensemble members want to bring the
system across the lower florida peninsula and possibly east of the
forecast area, which might serve to cut off the moisture feed and
shunt it east.

3. Then the european (ecmwf) model operational run is bringing it
toward new orleans but the european ensemble members are
clustered in the eastern gulf with a 10-20 percent chance of some
kind of a tropical storm in the eastern gulf.

What is important is that the eastern side of the system is likely to
be the wet side especially with southwesterly shear and the
moisture may still be shunted across the region even with a low
over the central gulf between 85w and 90w. It's all in where it
sets up and we won't really know until an actual system develops!
Thursday... No surprise the GFS is a bit wetter than the ecmwf
with the european trough axis a bit further to the west. Overall
will go with a good chance probability of precipitation (pops) for
the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with a bit
less cloud coverage during the day. Lows Thursday night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday... So for Friday choose your favorite model solution. Ecmwf
has a low over the central gulf with GFS hanging it back over the
yucatan channel. Overall neither is extremely moist with
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the area.

Memorial day weekend...

so the low could be anywhere from east of florida to near new
orleans with ECMWF ensembles clustered in the eastern gulf. It's
very unlikely this is going to be a symmetrical system so, once
again, the big question will be where will the tropical moisture
plume set up. I tend to like persistence in these types of
situation and would not be surprised if it didn't set up along the
florida west coast or extreme eastern gulf. So not wanting to
totally let my guard up on just the ECMWF solution at this point
and even if the ECMWF operational is right, we still have seen
tropical plumes set up 5 to 10 degrees east of a low level center
in a hybrid system. So at this point am going to go with the idea
of good chance to likely pops with locally heavy rainfall possible
for now.

Aviation
MVFR conditions will continue at most fields through the afternoon
and evening with ceiling lifting overnight . Will maintain a mid
cloud deck which should inhibit fog formation overnight. Only
exception will be the gainesville area which may hang onto
rainfall overnight with the band setting up from CAPE canaveral to
the big bend.

Marine
Squeeze play between the weak tough over the gulf and bermuda
ridge should keep southeasterly winds of 15 to 20 knots over he
waters for the next few days with a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Depending upon the evolution in the eastern gulf
might see higher winds and seas later in the period.

Rip currents: moderate risk will continue in the general southeasterly
flow pattern with surf breakers in the 2-4 ft range.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 66 80 67 82 30 50 30 70
ssi 71 77 71 78 10 60 30 40
jax 68 81 68 83 20 40 30 60
sgj 69 79 69 80 30 40 30 50
gnv 67 80 67 83 40 60 30 70
ocf 67 82 67 83 40 50 30 70

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Sandrik peterson elsenheimer


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 6 mi67 min SSE 4.1 76°F 1021 hPa72°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 20 mi52 min SE 8 G 8.9 76°F 76°F1019.6 hPa (-1.2)
RCYF1 24 mi52 min 79°F
41117 30 mi60 min 75°F4 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL20 mi62 minN 05.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist75°F75°F100%1019 hPa

Wind History from OMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE3----------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5CalmCalm
1 day agoNE8E7----------------------CalmCalmCalmSW5SW5W6E8E8CalmCalmS5
2 days agoSW10SW4----------------------CalmCalmS3S8SW8SE5E5E5SE5E5NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Bings Landing, Matanzas River, Florida
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Bings Landing
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Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:52 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:35 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:32 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.91.21.51.51.41.10.80.50.2-0.1-0.20.10.40.711.110.80.50.2-0-0.2-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.20.40.70.91.11.11.10.90.70.40.20.10.10.20.40.60.8110.90.70.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.