Monday, November20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Coast, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:28PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:42 AM EST (13:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:34AMMoonset 7:23PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Today..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..East southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then rain likely and isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north late in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters smooth. Rain likely and isolated Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Wednesday night and Thursday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. Rain likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
Friday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 317 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will move eastward from the tennessee valley to the carolina coast tonight, with winds becoming onshore today. A warm front will approach our waters from the south on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico late Tuesday then move over the florida peninsula and result in increased rain chances with a few Thunderstorms possible. Another low pressure system will approach area waters from the south on Thursday and move east of the area Friday night into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Coast, FL
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location: 29.58, -81.19     debug

Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 200910
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
410 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Currently A 1025 mb high pressure ridge was located from the tn
valley to the lower ms valley with a northerly low level flow over
the forecast region. The much cooler airmass that moved in early
Sunday has resulted in chilly temps early this morning with the
coolest readings from some non-nws inland stations west of highway
301 north i-10 around 33-35 deg at 3 am. In these areas winds are
light to calm so it is very possible some patchy frost may form in
these conditions over the inland areas. Over coastal areas tighter
pres gradient is causing winds to stay in the 5-10 kt range where
temps are still about 50 deg. Flow is mainly zonal aloft with one
mid level trough lifting out to the northeast and an upper level jet
off the east coast generating some sct-broken cirrus locally...

otherwise clear skies.

Near term today-tonight ...

weak mid level ridge over the area early this period will move east
quickly as mid-upper level trough amplifies across the NRN gulf
of mexico. Sfc high pressure over the lower CONUS will quickly move
east and offshore early Tuesday morning. This will result in a
warming trend during this period and increasing low to mid
level moisture.

For today... A chilly start with wind chills starting out in the mid-
upper 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast. Low level flow
will turn northeast to east during the day with breezy conditions
along the coast as the sfc high scoots to nc and support ~15g20 mph
at times along the coast. Increasing stratocu cumulus clouds
expected today mainly eastern zones. A couple of models actually
putting in light QPF near the coast though this is likely
overdone... At most a few sprinkles possible. Highs today
forecast in the mid 60s to around 70.

Tonight... Fairly decent model agreement of mostly cloudy skies
developing tonight as low-mid level flow veers markedly. Warm
advection and isentropic ascent should only get stronger overnight
so model solutions appear reasonable. Models also fairly consistent
along with prior forecast of a few light showers possible
along the coast after midnight and will retain this for now. Could
be some light fog inland but too limited low level moisture per nam
soundings. Lows tonight will be warmer than this morning with mins
from about 45 to 50 inland and mid 50s to near 60 nearer the coast.

Short term (Tuesday-Wednesday night)
High pressure rapidly moves moves offshore as a short wave trough
approaches the area. The return flow will bring in milder temps with
an increase in moisture. A weak surface low forms and moves along
the west fl gulf coast on Tuesday before re-developing offshore the
carolinas late Tuesday night. Isentropic lift... Convergence... And
large scale ascent from the trough will lead to a good chance of
rain with locally heavy rain possible especially south of the i-10
corridor where 1 to 2 inches is possible. Model soundings indicate
there may be enough instability for a few elevated storms across the
same area. Pcp will taper off by late Tuesday night with a brief
lull early Wed as the short wave lifts out of the area. Another more
potent southern stream short wave trough will begin to drop
southeast across the southeast u.S. And gulf of mexico Wed night
with cyclogenesis either in the cntl or southern gulf of mexico
which will bring another good chance of rain especially across the
fl peninsula.

Long term (Thursday-Sunday)
There continues to be differences between the ECMWF and GFS on the
evolution of a potent southern stream mid upper trough that will be
traversing the area and with resulting cyclogenesis across florida.

The ECMWF is slower and more potent which results in a prolonged
period of rain from thanksgiving into Friday night whereas the gfs
is faster and has the system beginning to clear the area during the
day Friday. Both models suggest a good chance of rain especially
across the fl peninsula on thanksgiving. Will take a blend of the
guidance and have lingering showers across the eastern half of the
area with clearing from west to east in the afternoon. Locally heavy
rain is possible especially on thanksgiving day although exact
amounts will depend on exact track and strength of the low. Due to
cloud cover pcp and warm sector south of the area... MAX temps held
to below normal. Confidence continues low on thunder given the lack
of instability and being in cool sector although a few elevated
storms possible across the far south. The long wave trough will move
east of the region over the weekend with high pressure gradually
building in from the gulf coast. Expecting overall a decrease in
clouds by late Friday with mostly clear conditions over the weekend
with MAX temps generally in the 60s to near 70 lows mostly in the

Aviation Vfr will prevail though increasing low level clouds
expected today and tonight. Have continued to bring in sct-lcl
broken clouds around 3000-4000 ft later today through tonight as
onshore flow and warming and moistening trend is expected. Will have
to monitor guidance and satellite imagery for possible including
occasional MVFR CIGS for all tafs except for gnv after 18z as there
is support from gfs, rap and SREF guidance for CIGS around 2500-3500
ft but timing and probabilities are uncertain. Winds today will
transition from northerly this morning to northeast and east during
the day at 10-15 kt. Lighter winds expected tonight.

Northeast to east flow today around 15-20 kt and seas of up to 4-6
ft so scec headline will be in effect. A warm front will move toward
the area Tuesday causing winds to turn more southeast with more
varied flow Tuesday night due to showers and a few storms. Winds
turn more northerly Wed as one in a series of lows moves offshore of
the fl east coast. Another sfc low approaches from the south
Thursday then moves offshore by late week but timing uncertain due
to model disagreement. Scec or SCA headlines possible through most
of the week due to the elevated winds and seas... But best chances
will be in the offshore zones.

Rip currents: an onshore flow and rough seas will result in
moderate risk of rip currents today and Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 65 48 70 51 0 10 40 40
ssi 65 58 71 58 0 20 60 50
jax 68 53 73 55 0 10 60 50
sgj 68 61 73 59 10 20 60 50
gnv 71 53 72 54 0 10 60 40
ocf 73 55 74 56 0 10 60 40

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Shashy peterson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 6 mi57 min W 4.1 50°F 1022 hPa44°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 20 mi42 min NNE 15 G 17 63°F 67°F1021 hPa (+1.2)
RCYF1 24 mi42 min 64°F
41117 30 mi50 min 71°F4 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL20 mi52 minWSW 47.00 miClear48°F44°F87%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Bings Landing, Matanzas River, Florida
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Bings Landing
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Mon -- 05:48 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:07 PM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:40 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
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Mon -- 01:51 AM EST     0.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:21 PM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.