Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Richmond, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:13PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 9:35 PM CDT (02:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Expires:201905220330;;224597 Fzus54 Khgx 211416 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 916 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2019 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz330-335-220330- Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 916 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms early in the morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 916 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Hazardous marine conditions are expected today but should gradually decrease. Wind gusts to or above gale force are expected through mid morning before very slowly diminishing. We have started to see that trend of decreasing winds so the gale warning has been allowed to expire. A small craft advisory is in effect for most of the day. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow and elevated seas are expected for the next several days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richmond, TX
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location: 29.58, -95.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 220205
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
905 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Discussion
A few showers continue to hang on over the eastern third of the
cwa but these should wane in the next hour or so. Surface analysis
shows an area of low pressure over SW ks and the pressure gradient
over east texas remains tight. Winds will not decouple overnight
and could actually increase prior to sunrise. Clouds have moved
into the area already and the combination of the clouds and mixing
from the winds will keep temperatures very warm overnight. Bumped
mint up a degree or so and tweaked sky grids pops. Rest of the
forecast looks on track. 43

Prev discussion issued 649 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
aviation...

a mix ofVFR MVFR ceilings across the terminals this hour with winds
out of the southeast and gustier closer to the coast. A cold front
has attempted to sag southwards across east-central tx this
afternoon, and caused light and variable to northwesterly winds
across our northern terminals at cll, uts, and cxo over the last
hour or so. Ese onshore flow should prevail as this boundary wobbles
back northward this evening, with light to moderate winds before
midnight, increasing in speed during the overnight hours. Ceilings
will continue to lower by the early morning hours to MVFR criteria
area wide, but not confident that we will see ifr ceilings given the
increasing wind speeds preventing the deck from building down
further. Ceilings should rise again by late morning tomorrow, with a
short period ofVFR conditions during the afternoon. Winds will once
again be gusty through much of the afternoon tomorrow. By the
evening hours, ceilings should lower to MVFR criteria, similar to
tonight.

Hathaway
prev discussion... Issued 330 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
discussion...

a breezy end to the day, while showers work their way across the
area through tonight. That will probably about do it for rain
chances for the rest of the forecast period. We'll be looking east
to see how stout the big ridge gets out there, and if we'll join
in their late spring blast furnace. All in all, the expectation is
for temperatures that are definitely above normal, more summer-
like in nature, but we're also not expecting these highs to reach
any kind of unprecedented level. Still, this is fairly early in
the year to be seeing sustained 90+ temperatures, so let's all
take it easy and let ourselves acclimate. And, of course, never
leave anyone by themselves in a vehicle. Even in modest heat, cars
in direct sunlight can become dangerously hot in minutes.

Near term [through tonight]...

radar shows a few thin bands of light to occasionally moderate
showers along near a weak cold front working across southeast
texas, mainly north of i-10. Lightning networks have caught a few
(literally, just a few) intracloud flashes, and reflectivity has
exceeded 50 dbz in spots, but no cg strikes yet. Rgb imagery from
goes-east shows that outside of one orphaned anvil, there's very
little for ice in these clouds.

These showers will move generally easterly and persist through
tonight while slowly weakening dissipating. Can't rule out a stray
bolt of lightning, but we're basically looking at showers tonight.

Some cooler air will try to work in behind the front, but that
shouldn't be too successful. Crockett may dip below 70 degrees
towards dawn, but not many else will see sub-70 temps. Maybe b cs?
maybe? It'll be close.

Sustained winds are coming in below the threshold for a wind
advisory, but with many obs showing gusts to around or above 25
mph, will go ahead and let the wind advisory stay until it expires
in a couple hours.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]...

what's left of the weak cold front moving into the area washes
out, as its surface low and upper support have long ejected
northeast of our area. We quickly return to deep onshore flow
through the lower half of the atmosphere, and midlevel winds out
of the southwest, as we sit on the fringe of a strong, stacked
high over the southeast us.

No surprise really what happens in this pattern. It's gonna be
hot, it's gonna be humid. And, for the large part, it's going to
be dry. More than one piece of guidance wants to squeeze out some
precip on the seabreeze on Thursday. So, maybe we'll see an
isolated shower or even a thunderstorm. But really, it's just
going to be sunny, hot, and humid.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]...

you know there's not a whole lot going on in the long term
forecast when the most pressing question is "how high does this
heat dome bulge the 500 mb heights?" there seems to be pretty
solid consensus in the guidance that we'll top out in the 593-595
dm range this weekend. The naefs mean 500mb heights are maxing out
their climatological percentiles from Wednesday night all the way
through the weekend. Fortunately for us, this is happening while
the heat dome is centered over alabama and georgia, which is why
locations that far east are forecasting triple digit high
temperatures. For us on the western fringe, we'll keep it a little
lower - I have upper 80s and lower 90s across the area.

One thing we'll have to watch is the position of the midlevel
ridging early next week. There's pretty strong consensus in the
guidance for it to retrograde back along the northern gulf coast
towards texas. As it does so, we may get even warmer for the first
half of next week. Fortunately, the ridge does look a bit weaker
as it retrogrades, and an upper trough will be making its way from
the western us as well to hopefully blunt the ridge some as it
ejects towards the great lakes. I decided to go ahead and put
highs above the guidance blend, with more widespread highs in the
90s, but will keep things in the lower half of the 90s given the
mitigating factors involved.

Maybe rain chances return late next week? That's not much better
than speculation at this point, and since it's beyond the official
forecast period, it's surely not worth saying any more than this.

Aviation [18z TAF issuance]...

visible satellite imagery and radar data show a line of showers
with maybe some embedded tsra but tsra have yet to really develop.

There have been some cell sin the line that have become more
developed than others, but in large, capping is limiting vertical
development. It's still possible that could change such that an
isolated storm could form as the convective line moves more
towards houston. Model trends suggest the capping will limit
thunderstorm development especially south of kiah. Kiah northward
we will keep a mention of vcts this afternoon for the potential of
an isolated storm, but overall think we will mainly have showers.

Threat for tsra should come to an end later this evening as most
activity slides NE with the main upper level trough axis over the
plains. Southerly winds should decrease some this afternoon but
enough of a southerly breeze should persist overnight to keep fog
from forming. MVFR ceilings should develop again with maybe some
pockets of ifr. For now tafs keep MVFR ceilings with winds
expected overnight. Tomorrow should see improvement in ceilings
after 15z going into the afternoon.

Overpeck
marine...

moderate to strong southerly winds should continue tonight which is
a decrease from this morning and last night. Overall winds should be
around 15 to 20 knots which should keep a southerly fetch in place
and keep seas from dropping too much given the fetch. Small craft
advisory will go through the overnight due to the rough seas while
winds will be below criteria. Small craft exercise caution will be
in place for the rest of the coast overnight.

Coastal flood warning will be allowed to expire on time for the
areas around galveston bay. High tides should be reached and most
tide gages reaching 3.8 to 4.0 feet mllw. There have been issues
along bolivar peninsula but also potential issues up into the ship
channel and down the coast towards kemah. Coastal flood advisory
south of freeport will also expire however the coastal flood
advisory along the immediate coast will continue through Thursday.

Southerly winds remain in place but generally around 15 knots for
the day Wednesday which should keep seas from dropping too much.

Winds do increase again Wednesday night as another area of low
pressure moves into the plains. Small craft advisory conditions will
be expected over night into Thursday. Southerly winds continue
through the end of the week but at lower levels. Seas should
decrease closer to 3 to 5 feet.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 72 89 76 90 74 0 0 0 10 0
houston (iah) 77 89 77 89 74 30 0 10 10 0
galveston (gls) 79 84 79 84 79 20 10 10 10 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm cdt Thursday for the following
zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and bolivar
peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 am cdt Wednesday for
the following zones: galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda
ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island
to freeport tx out 20 nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 7 am cdt Wednesday for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport tx out 20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Wednesday for the following
zones: waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx
from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to freeport tx
from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 28 mi41 min S 8 G 13 82°F 80°F1005.2 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 41 mi41 min SSE 8 G 12 81°F 81°F1006.4 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 45 mi41 min S 18 G 21 81°F 81°F1005.5 hPa
LUIT2 48 mi41 min SSE 11 G 17 81°F 83°F1006.2 hPa
GRRT2 49 mi41 min S 13 G 19 80°F 82°F1005.7 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 50 mi41 min SSE 16 G 19 81°F 82°F1006.6 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX6 mi42 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast81°F75°F85%1005.2 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX15 mi40 minSSE 67.00 miOvercast80°F77°F91%1006.1 hPa
Houston Executive Airport, TX17 mi40 minS 66.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze81°F75°F84%1005.8 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX21 mi40 minVar 55.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze82°F75°F79%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from SGR (wind in knots)
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S8SE7--S12SE12S11SE15SE12SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:39 AM CDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:13 PM CDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:48 PM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:18 PM CDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.70.80.90.80.80.80.70.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM CDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:46 PM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:02 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.30.50.70.911110.90.90.90.90.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.