Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Richmond, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 3:23 AM CST (09:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 314 Am Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North winds 25 to 30 knots. Gusts to near gale force expected in the morning. Bay waters rough. Rain likely until late afternoon. Light freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. Snow likely late.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A chance of snow, light freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then a slight chance of light freezing rain, snow and sleet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of rain.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of rain.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 314 Am Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A strong cold front will continue pushing southward through the upper texas coastal waters this morning with strong offshore winds and building seas in its wake. There could be some frozen precipitation behind the front before clearing this evening. Wind speeds will gradually diminish Wednesday. High pressure will move east of the region allowing onshore winds to resume by Thursday night and persist into the weekend. The next front should move into the area late Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richmond, TX
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location: 29.58, -95.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 160514
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1114 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018

Aviation
Precip has redeveloped in the wake of a strong cold front that
crossed kcll around 04z and will cross houston between 07-08z and
the coast between 09-10z. Light rain will develop in the wake of
the front and transition to a mix of light rain freezing rain and
sleet. The transition will occur first at kcll, kuts and kcxo as
early as 09z but more likely between 10-12z. The transition at
kiah will occur between 12-15z with a mix of rain freezing rain
and sleet. Fcst soundings do support a change over to snow during
the afternoon. A mix of rain and sleet will develop at ksgr and
khou by 16z with the frozen precip lingering during the
afternoon. Mainly rain is expected at kgls with some sleet and
possibly snow mixing in by afternoon. Most of the precipitation
will end by 01z. Strong north winds will develop in the wake of
the front and will begin to subside toward Tuesday evening.

Generally ifr ceilings are expected behind the front gradually
lifting to MVFR by morning with someVFR conditions developing by
late afternoon over the northern TAF sites and after 00z over the
south. Skies are expected to becomeVFR areawide between 06-09z. 43

Prev discussion issued 906 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
update...

evening surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from
temple to palestine, with temperatures in the d fw metroplex
having already falling to freezing behind the front. Simple
extrapolation of the latest frontal movement places the front into
college station by 9:30 pm, houston by 12 am, and galveston by 2
am. With surface pressure rises behind the front having increased
over the past few hours, have very little reason to think the cold
front will slow down at all and have lowered overnight
temperatures and temperatures during the day Tuesday 2-3 degrees
as a result. A late evening update may be required should this
faster trend continue. Have also added a mention of rain freezing
rain sleet into burleson, brazos, madison, and houston beginning
after midnight to account for these colder temperature trends as
light to moderate rain in the vicinity of the front gradually
transitions as the layer of cold air behind it deepens. Did not
make any changes to the ongoing winter storm warning or winter
weather advisory with this addition as surface temperatures will
be too warm for impacts to begin before 3 am cst.

Winds will quickly become northerly and gusty behind frontal
passage, remaining elevated through the day Tuesday. These winds
are expected to be strong enough to produce wind chills in the
single digits to teens at times Tuesday morning. Have opted to
include this hazard in the ongoing winter storm warning instead of
issuing a separate wind chill advisory to keep hazard
communication as simple as possible during a complicated event.

Intermittent periods of sleet, freezing rain, and even snow will
spread south through the day Tuesday, reaching the houston metro
after sunrise and the coast after noon. Continual precipitation is
not expected through the day... But moreso several 2-4 hour
periods where precipitation occurs as waves of frontogenetic
forcing moving across the region keep the atmosphere primed to
produce winter weather. Colder temperatures during the day Tuesday
will only help encourage the potential for ice accumulations.

Huffman
prev discussion... Issued 357 pm cst Mon jan 15 2018
discussion...

it is so nice to see temperatures in the mid upper 60s today. So
wish I could be outside to enjoy instead of bringing the bad news.

What's that saying? If you don't like the weather in texas just
wait 5 minutes? That's the forecast for tonight tomorrow. So let's
get to it.

Currently the arctic cold front is pushing into red river region
and north texas. Latest surface obs at 12z show a 1048-1050mb high
sitting over NE montana NW north dakota. Water vapor imagery shows
that nice closed low over the great lakes and broad vorticity
maximum over the plains swinging southward. Upper air analysis
shows highly amplified pattern with ridge over the western u.S.

Driving the polar jet due south over the plains.

Tuesday... This is probably one of my top 5 toughest most
challenging forecasts to make and one of the toughest forecast
decisions to make. Big thanks to our forecast team collaborating
on this but 12z models all show very similar trends. Ensembles
like sref GEFS seem to be showing something similar.

First thing we saw was temperatures in the boundary layer are
trending colder so we had to trend surface temperatures colder and
sooner than previous forecast. This calls for freezing
temperatures for most of the day on Tuesday with precipitation
falling.

Second the transition of precipitation types looked on track with
a transition Tuesday morning from rain - freezing rain - sleet -
snow. Model soundings from nam GFS show this trend. The ECMWF also
showed colder 850mb temps by 18z Tuesday indicating a similar
trend. There is a fight between the moisture over the frontal
surface and precip falling versus the drier boundary layer air
coming into from the north. This could allow for precip to end
sooner than expected but it will have to overcome quite a bit of
thermodynamic wet bulbing to do it.

Third increase in frontogenetic lift at several levels. GFS nam
all show frontogenesis at 925-850mb and 850-700mb layers. There is
also jet stream configuration with the right entrance region over
much of SE texas and quite a bit of 500-300mb q vector
convergence supporting large scale lift. These seem to come
together a little bit late but still lift over the area 18z
Tuesday to 00z Wednesday. This all suggests possible banded
precipitation and you even see hints of that in the QPF output in
the models. I'm not going to get into a discussion of CSI and
lapse rates but cross sections do show pockets of CSI and steeper
lapse rates in these areas. Frontogenesis will be driving most of
the banding anyway.

Fourth we need to emphasize freezing rain sleet as the primary
threat for most of the area. Most ice accumulations will be from a
few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Banding could lead to
higher amounts of ice leading to need a winter storm warning. With
this potential in mind, we decided on a winter storm warning for
areas along and north of interstate 10. Farther north there could
be a band of snow from brenham conroe livingston north with
generally 1 inch of snow possible which would fall on already icy
conditions from freezing rain sleet prior to snow. There very
well could be some sleet snow late afternoon evening in the
houston area but freezing rain will be the main issues south of
conroe.

Precipitation should come to an end Tuesday night with low
temperatures Wednesday morning requiring a hard freeze warning. In
the extended forecast there looks to be a chance of rain Friday
with warm air advection. This continues Saturday into Sunday with
another front pushing through Sunday. This time it looks like a
line of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday. High pressure
builds in with more cold conditions.

Overpeck
marine...

a gale warning is now in effect for the coastal waters tomorrow
afternoon through early weds morning. A small craft advisory is
also in effect for the bays during this same time frame.

Light onshore winds the rest of this afternoon and tonight will be
giving way to strong gusty offshore winds tomorrow morning on into
the afternoon and overnight hours. This cold arctic airmass is ex-
pected to bring frequent gusts to 34 knots, mainly during the late
afternoon evening across the coastal waters, with a sustained N ne
wind of 20 to 30 knots persisting into early weds morning. Seas to
build into 6 to 8 feet nearshore and around 10 or 11 feet offshore.

Precipitation should be rain showers... But isolated locales in the
upper parts of the bays could experience some freezing rain during
the late morning early afternoon time frame on tues. Low water is-
sues could also present themselves tues weds given the strong off-
shore flow combined with the predicted low astronomical tides.

Winds seas should be decreasing to below SCA gale warning criteria
weds morning afternoon... But scec conditions could linger over the
offshore waters as the surface high re-centers itself over the S e
u.S. And maintains a tight east-to-west gradient over the northern
gulf. Models keeping with the idea of a coastal low developing at
near the middle tx coast thurs fri. Along with a brief shifting of
winds (around this system), unsettled weather to return before the
low moves east washes out sat. Light moderate onshore winds should
prevail the rest of the weekend , with the next cold front progged
to move offshore late sun. 41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 26 29 20 37 24 70 60 10 10 10
houston (iah) 32 35 23 39 27 60 70 20 10 10
galveston (gls) 39 44 28 40 34 50 70 30 10 10

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Winter storm warning from 3 am Tuesday to midnight cst Tuesday
night for the following zones: austin... Brazos... Burleson...

colorado... Grimes... Harris... Houston... Liberty... Madison...

montgomery... Polk... San jacinto... Trinity... Walker...

waller... Washington.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am Tuesday to midnight cst
Tuesday night for the following zones: brazoria...

chambers... Fort bend... Galveston... Jackson... Matagorda...

wharton.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to midnight cst Tuesday
night for the following zones: galveston bay... Matagorda
bay.

Gale warning from 6 am Tuesday to midnight cst Tuesday night for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 14
aviation marine... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 28 mi54 min N 5.1 G 12 52°F 56°F1028 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 41 mi54 min N 8 G 14 50°F1027.9 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 45 mi54 min E 5.1 G 5.1 51°F 49°F1026.8 hPa
LUIT2 48 mi54 min SE 5.1 G 6 55°F 1026.2 hPa
GRRT2 49 mi54 min ESE 6 G 7 56°F 50°F1026.7 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 50 mi54 min E 5.1 G 6 57°F 52°F1026.7 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX6 mi31 minN 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy47°F43°F86%1029.7 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX15 mi29 minN 10 G 187.00 miLight Rain48°F47°F97%1029.1 hPa
Houston Executive Airport, TX17 mi29 minN 16 G 234.00 miLight Rain37°F37°F100%1031.5 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX21 mi29 minNNW 193.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy48°F46°F94%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from SGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4SE3SE3SE4SE5SE8SE11SE10SE9SE9SE13SE10SE13SE10SE9E6E7E8SE7SE7E3N15N20
G27
1 day agoE6E5E5E6E6E7E6E7SE9SE5E73E5E8E6SE8E5SE6SE5E5E4E4E3Calm
2 days agoN7N6N7N7N7NE11N8NE7N6NW10N9NW7N6N7NW4NW5N4N3CalmNE3NE4E3E4E7

Tide / Current Tables for Houston Ship Channel, Galveston Bay, Manchester, Texas
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Houston Ship Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:51 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:57 PM CST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM CST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:57 PM CST     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.80.70.70.60.60.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.20.10.40.60.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM CST     0.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:54 AM CST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM CST     0.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:16 PM CST     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM CST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.40.40.40.30.40.40.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.