Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sulphur, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday May 27, 2017 10:45 AM CDT (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 7:56AMMoonset 10:01PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ538 Chandeleur Sound-breton Sound- 1003 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..East winds near 10 knots becoming southwest in the late evening. Waves 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1003 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf of mexico through the middle of next week. On Monday and Tuesday...a weak front will stall along the louisiana and mississippi coast before dissipating by Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sulphur, LA
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location: 29.6, -89.62     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 271341
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
841 am cdt Sat may 27 2017

Sounding discussion
This morning's flight shows moisture slowly creeping in through
the upper layers of the atmosphere. The temp profile between 925mb
and 850mb showed an unrealistic lapse rate and therefore was
deleted. The rest appears normal for an upper 80 degree day.

Convection will be suppressed today by the combination of lack of
moisture and strong inversion at 800mb.

Meffer

Prev discussion issued 337 am cdt Sat may 27 2017
short term...

cold front well to the north of the area is moving slowly
southward and should be in the vicinity of texarkana to ne
arkansas by this evening. A few very strong explosive areas of
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop just north of that
line and move slowly south this afternoon. Outflows from these
storms should move southward through a less dense environment this
evening and reach the natchez area just after dark. The first of
many sea breezes should also be in this general vicinity after
dark as well. An area of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
could form along a line from alexandria to natchez this evening.

A strong inversion should hold for our area through Sunday
morning keeping chances of sh TS at low levels. After noon
Sunday, that inversion weakens but is not destroyed. This will
make any thunderstorms capable of breaking this cap and developing
late Sunday afternoon and evening have a better chance of
becoming severe. The frontal boundary and sea breeze will also
clash along the alexandria to natchez line, but this time, the
sh TS will begin to make a slow march southward into the northern
portion of the area which may also help chances of producing a
severe thunderstorm or two. Upper jet influences should also be
capable of developing another area of sh TS along the coastal
areas from corpus to near new orleans during this same time frame.

The front stalls Sunday evening over the area and becomes very
diffuse at the sfc. The 850mb reflection remains and this boundary
along with daily sea breeze collisions will maintain a daily
barrage of sh ts. Some or these could be strong during peak
heating the remainder of the week. But the best time frame for
receiving a strong or severe thunderstorm looks to be Sunday
afternoon through Monday. SPC has the entire area under marginal
risk for Sunday and Sunday night. Marginal to slight risk looks to
be a good bet starting noon Sunday through Monday.

There is no focused deep moisture fetch to any one area along the
stalled boundary but instead is spread over a large area. Without
this concentration of deep moisture, flooding issues are not
expected through the end of the work week for our area. Although,
if any certain location falls under two or three of these
thunderstorms, there can always be the potential to see some
minor flooding.

Long term...

we should begin to see a deeper tropical moist fetch from the
southern gulf into the texas coastal bend starting Thursday. This
is not uncommon this time of year and houston as well as other
surrounding areas have been known to take on extensive flooding
issues from some of these scenarios over past years. Models are in
disagreement of which way to resolve the tropical wave issue by
next weekend. The GFS would like to keep a steady flow into the
houston area but spread this fetch eastward into our area by the
weekend. The euro stills wants to develop a weak system over the
nw gulf. The synoptic field can be better resolved from these
global suites and so the deep moist fetch from the southern gulf
through the texas coast into the center of the country has a
little more credence than these models trying to develop a
mesoscale disturbance.

In short, higher chances of rain look to be in the fcast again by
next weekend and this will be shown in the extended. But as for
the mesoscale development, there needs to be a strongly concerted
and successive effort by both model suites, if not more models,
agreeing on this scenario before it can be set as a part of the
fcast, especially in the extended.

Aviation...

MVFR ceilings will linger overall of the terminals through around 15
to 16z this morning. The ceilings should improve intoVFR range
after 16z, and remain so through at least 00z. By 06z, another
round of MVFR ceilings should be in place at most of the terminals.

Marine...

a fairly benign weather pattern for the coastal waters through the
period as a broad area of high pressure remains centered over the
eastern gulf of mexico and florida through the middle of next week.

A general onshore wind of around 10 knots and seas of around 2 to 3
feet can be expected in the open waters. Closer to the coast in the
sounds and tidal lakes, waves of 1 to 2 feet and lighter winds of 5
to 10 knots are expected through tomorrow. On Monday and Tuesday, a
weak front will stall near these waters resulting in variable winds
of 5 knots or less. Thunderstorm activity will also be possible
during this time, and these storms could produce locally stronger
winds for brief periods of time. By Wednesday, the front should be
dissipated and general onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots should be
reinstated. 32
decision support...

dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring flooding along the mississippi and
pearl rivers.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch warning advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch warning advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 89 73 89 70 10 10 20 40
btr 91 74 90 71 10 10 20 40
asd 88 74 89 72 10 10 10 30
msy 89 75 89 75 10 10 10 30
gpt 87 75 87 75 10 10 10 30
pql 87 73 87 74 10 10 10 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 19 mi46 min SSW 8.9 G 12 81°F 80°F1018 hPa (+1.3)
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 29 mi46 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 78°F1017.9 hPa (+1.7)
KDLP 33 mi26 min Calm 81°F 81°F
PILL1 35 mi46 min WSW 8 G 12 81°F 73°F1018.1 hPa (+1.7)
CARL1 36 mi46 min 73°F
GRBL1 39 mi106 min S 4.1 G 5.1 1017.6 hPa (+2.3)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 39 mi46 min SSW 9.9 G 16 83°F 79°F1017.5 hPa (+1.1)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi46 min S 4.1 G 9.9 84°F 80°F1017.7 hPa (+1.2)
KXPY 45 mi31 min S 7 82°F 75°F
KMIS 46 mi31 min Calm 84°F 77°F
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 48 mi46 min S 2.9 G 4.1
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 49 mi46 min SSW 6 G 6 78°F 1018.4 hPa (+1.7)76°F

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boothville, LA22 mi55 minSW 66.00 miFog/Mist80°F77°F90%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S8S10S7S6S6S7S7S7S10SE4SE7SE7S11S14
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1 day agoSW7SW10W7W8SW105SW7S8S7S5S6S6S7S8S7S8S8SE4SE5SE5SE3S7S10S12
2 days agoNW9NW12NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Gardene, Louisiana
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Bay Gardene
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Sat -- 12:06 AM CDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:51 PM CDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:01 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.811.31.51.71.8221.91.81.61.30.90.60.2-0-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Gardner Island, Breton Sound, Louisiana
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Gardner Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:00 PM CDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:56 PM CDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.3-0.200.30.50.81.11.31.61.81.921.91.81.61.310.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.