Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sulphur, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:04PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 5:55 AM CST (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ538 Chandeleur Sound-breton Sound- 400 Am Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..East winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds near 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots rising to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 400 Am Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the coastal waters today. A trough axis will move through the northern gulf Wednesday and a strong cold front will move through Thursday morning. Strong high pressure will then build in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sulphur, LA
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location: 29.6, -89.62     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 181051
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
451 am cst Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure ridge at the surface extends from michigan into
mississippi and louisiana. Aloft, upper ridging centered over
alabama, with a shortwave moving northeast through oklahoma and
another in southwest new mexico.

Locally, the oklahoma shortwave aided in clearing the thick cirrus
clouds we saw much of Monday out of the area. With the clear skies
and light winds in place, excellent radiating conditions have
allowed for the development of fog across much of the area.

Visibilities have fallen to 1 2 mile or less in some areas, so a
dense fog advisory has been issued for much of the area through 9
am cst. Temperatures at 4 am ranged from the upper 30s across
northern sections to lower 50s at locations like lakefront airport
and grand isle.

Short term
One more quiet day today as high pressure moves eastward. Fog
should burn off by mid-morning with dry weather through tonight.

The new mexico shortwave will be over east texas by midday
Wednesday. Southerly winds will return moisture to the area with
dew points rising into the 50s for much of the area, and 60s along
the southern louisiana coast. This could set up conditions for an
advection type fog tonight over marine area where water
temperatures are mainly in the 50s. Showers will break out by late
morning or early afternoon Wednesday with likely pops across the
area. Instability should be rather weak, so only isolated
thunderstorms are expected, with much of the rain coming to an end
prior to midnight Wednesday night.

A northern stream shortwave is expected to phase with the texas
shortwave overnight Wednesday night, closing off an upper low near
jackson by midday Thursday. At this point, strong cold air
advection will dive into the area, deepening the surface low
significantly. While precipitation on Thursday will be light,
rather gusty winds are expected downwind of lake pontchartrain,
where a wind advisory may be needed, and over the coastal waters,
where gale warnings will probably be needed.

Will trend temperatures toward the warmer side of guidance today,
and in the middle for tonight and Wednesday. Still lacking
confidence that MOS guidance has a good handle on highs on
Thursday with the cold advection, especially over southern and
eastern sections. Have trended toward the low end there. 35

Long term
Upper low will be pulling out to the northeast on Friday with
winds gradually easing as the surface low moves into the
northeastern states to disrupt holiday travel over the weekend.

High pressure at the surface will settle into the northern gulf of
mexico for the weekend. A shortwave will move through the middle
mississippi river valley on Sunday. No significant moisture will
be available, so don't expect much more than an increase in
clouds, if that. While Friday will be chillier and breezier than
normal, temperatures will moderate Saturday and Sunday. If clouds
hold off on Sunday, some areas could reach the 70 degree mark, per
the ECMWF guidance.

Weak upper ridging over the southern gulf of mexico should hold
any deep moisture well south of the area for christmas eve and
probably christmas day. Temperatures will be somewhat dependent on
cloud cover, with current forecast trending toward the warmer, and
slightly sunnier, ECMWF solution. By mid-week next week, the next
west coast storm will be moving out of the rockies, affecting the
southeast toward the end of next week. 35

Aviation
Several terminals will have vis restrictions down to 1 2sm or less
due to fg this morning.VFR conditions should return around 15z.

Ceilings will be from ovc001-003 where br and fg exist. These
ceilings will also break out after sunrise. Tonight could show a
better possibility of most areas getting fg as the area will be on
the north side of a trough axis moving toward the area from the
gulf.

Marine
Gentle northerly winds will begin to shift to the E today and
finally SE by evening before beginning to slowly rise to around 15
to 20kt ahead of a trough axis that will move through Wednesday
evening bringing winds around to west then nw. Wind speeds should
remain the same through Wednesday night until a cold front moves
through Thursday morning causing wind speeds to rapidly rise to near
or at gale conditions through Friday. Winds will begin to ease back
and become southerly over the weekend with the approach of a
reinforcing cold front.

Decision support
Dss code: blue
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: dense fog advisory
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 64 44 61 50 0 0 80 60
btr 64 47 62 51 0 0 80 30
asd 64 47 64 53 0 0 80 40
msy 63 51 65 53 0 0 80 30
gpt 63 48 63 54 0 0 80 60
pql 65 46 65 54 0 0 80 70

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for laz034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst this morning for msz068>071-
077-080.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 19 mi56 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 57°F1021.2 hPa (-0.6)
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 29 mi56 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 59°F1021.2 hPa (-0.5)
PILL1 35 mi56 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 45°F1021 hPa (-0.9)
CARL1 36 mi56 min 44°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 39 mi56 min Calm G 0 50°F 55°F1021.1 hPa (-0.6)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi56 min Calm G 0 44°F 53°F1021.5 hPa (-0.6)
KXPY 45 mi41 min Calm 52°F 50°F
KMIS 46 mi41 min N 7 57°F 54°F
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 48 mi56 min NNE 7 G 7
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 49 mi56 min N 11 G 11 50°F 1021.2 hPa (-0.9)50°F

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4W3W4NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW3N3NW5N5NW5NW5N3CalmCalmCalmW3W3NW3NW4
1 day agoNW6NW4NW5NW6NW5NW4NW5NW6NW5N5N4544434N5N4CalmCalmNW5NW4NW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Gardner Island, Breton Sound, Louisiana
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Gardner Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:34 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:09 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:57 PM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91110.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:27 AM CST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 11:38 PM CST     0.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.40.50.70.80.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.