Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 9:53 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1041 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning.Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog after midnight. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1041 Am Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
there will be decreasing shower and Thunderstorm as the day progresses. A long fetch of southeast winds has been in place for several days and although winds will generally be lower into midweek, seas should remain on the elevated side for a good portion of the week. Periods of unsettled weather are possible, though better shower and Thunderstorm chances should be situated a bit further inland for much of the week.

FXUS64 KHGX 291149 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 649 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dangerous flash flooding is ongoing across portions of the region as training showers and thunderstorms slowly sag southward across the region. With a swath of 5-7" rain and localized 10+ across northern parts, rivers are on the rise...some forecast into moderate flood stage. Even though rain will be ending, water will be slow to recede and the reminder to not drive thru flooded roadways stands.

The stronger llvl jet that has been feeding deep Gulf moisture into the line is in the process of shifting to the east. Expect the cold pool to eventually push the majority of ongoing convection off the coast and to the ese as we head into the sunrise hours. In the meantime, southern parts of the CWA should anticipate some isolated strong-severe storms and locally heavy rain. Will maintain Flood Watch as is into mid morning for messaging purposes. Though the metro area itself is not within the Watch, this does not mean there will not be some isolated impacts...in fact - one can probably expect a few issues (localized street flooding, etc). HRRR, which has done an excellent job with this event, still shows the potential for some small pockets of 2-5" totals along/south of a Cleveland-Angleton line.

The boundary pushes offshore this morning with clearing/fair wx emerging in its wake by the mid morning and afternoon hours.
Pressures fall the the west, and southeast winds will resume and drive it, and associated deeper Gulf moisture back into the area Tuesday. Will probably see some sct shra/tstm development across sw/s parts of the CWA during the day into early evening. 47

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A continued challenging and somewhat unsettled fcst for the extended.
Some subtle mid level ridging will nudge the trajectory of a series of upper level impulses in the emerging sw flow aloft to favor the northern half of the region. Can't pinpoint any single disturbance or timeframe, but combination of those plus 1.7-2.0" PW's, daytime heating, and seabreeze should keep chances of shra/tstms in the fcst pretty much on a daily basis during the second half of the work week and the weekend. More concerning is the potential for another weak frontal boundary to sag into the region around Friday and potentially stall. Regardless, soils across several parts of the area will be saturated and prone to quicker runoff with any additional moderate-heavy rain that decides to develop. 47

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are already east of the terminals, with the exception of GLS. -RA/VCTS will continue through around 13/14Z. Winds will generally remain light and variable, mainly north of IAH. Southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots will be possible over the coastal terminals. MVFR conditions due to low ceilings and fog are again expected tonight, towards the end of this TAF cycle.

JM

MARINE
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Small craft advisories and high risk of rips will continue today.
Strong to severe cells are in the process of approaching the coast and should be moving offshore during the early and mid morning hours. Look for strong winds and variable directions along with chaotic seas as this occurs. A long fetch of southeast winds has been in place for several days and although winds will generally be lower into midweek, seas should remain on the elevated side for a good portion of the week. Periods of unsettled weather are possible, though better shower and thunderstorm chances should be situated a bit further inland. 47

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Rivers will be on the rise...some well into moderate flood territory as heavy rain continues to runoff into area watersheds.
Additional chances of rain are in the forecast throughout a good part of the week. General trajectories of the upper level disturbances into mid-late week appear to be over the same locations we saw overnight. Nothing screams anywhere as extreme as what we are experiencing, though any additional heavy rain over saturated soils will quickly runoff and cause further river responses that'll need to be monitored with time. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 86 67 84 71 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 86 69 85 71 / 20 0 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 71 79 73 / 80 10 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ164-177>179- 198>200.

Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370- 375.

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Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Mon -- 12:38 AM CDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:38 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM CDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:04 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
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Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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