Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:15PM Saturday September 23, 2017 6:02 AM CDT (11:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 8:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 339 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 339 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light to moderate southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet will continue well into next week. Winds may approach caution criteria at times, particularly overnight and later next week as a front is expected to approach the area. Periods of showers and Thunderstorms are expected across the waters each day, with the greatest potential during the early morning hours.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX
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location: 29.61, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 230901
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
401 am cdt Sat sep 23 2017

Discussion
Normally i'd discuss current surface features and observations
but due to a communications issue observations from ASOS are not
being transmitted unless by an actual tower observer. This also
means we had to use early 1990s technology called a modem to dial
into the ASOS to get the daily climate report. We will also be
using that methodology to get updates on visibility across the
area. Fortunately we have a state of the art GOES 16 satellite to
help fill in the data holes especially for fog and low clouds.

Overall fog is patchy across the area but that could change over
the next couple of hours. We will of course be monitoring to issue
a dense fog advisory if obs indicate restricted visibility to a
quarter mile. Otherwise patchy fog should dissipate with the onset
of mixing through the boundary layer.

Looking at 00z soundings precipitable water values around 1.8
inches at lch and closer to 2 inches at crp. GOES 16 pw imagery
shows that plume of higher moisture over crp but lower values of
1.5 to 1.6 over SE texas and over to lch. Upper level analysis has
deep long wave trough over the western u.S. And an elongated
ridge through the plains into the midwest. Weak cutoff low was
noted over the SE u.S. Water vapor imagery captures this pattern
well. With all this in mind, forecast will hold onto 20 pops for
Saturday but likely not see much coverage in shower activity.

Latest tends in the hrrr show some showers along the coast after
16z and this activity moves inland. Coverage looks spotty at best.

Sunday through Tuesday moisture from the gulf increases. Amplified
jet stream pattern continues through Tuesday even with one upper
low moving into the northern plains and a jet streak diving south
across the pacific NW Tuesday morning. A cold front looks to push
into the texas panhandle but will be slow to move. Forecast will
keep mainly 30 pops with the increase in moisture and instability
but there will at least be some sinking motion from the ridge to
limit convection.

Higher rain chances look possible Wednesday into Thursday as the
cold front finally pushes southward. Upper low over the 4 corners
region cuts off from the main flow and a trough over the great
lakes develops. This northerly flow aloft helps bring a re-
enforcing area of high pressure into the plains. Cold front should
push through the area on Thursday. The 850mb front lags behind
but pushes through on Friday. High pressure becomes more
entrenched over the plains for next weekend. GFS still wants to
bring much higher moisture into the region ahead of the front but
the amount of QPF it generates Wednesday into Thursday does not
correspond well. Given the more consistent ECMWF in the extended
range, forecast tries to keep with lower pops the ECMWF suggests
with weak 500 mb ridging aloft and drier air pushing in with the
front.

Overpeck

Marine
A prolonged period of light to moderate onshore winds with seas
in the 2-3 foot ballpark continues, and is expected to continue
well into next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can
be expected daily. Tides also continue to run above astronomical
values with the continued onshore flow, and may run up to a foot
above normal to begin the new week. While this may start to
approach values at which we begin to see coastal impacts, current
expectations are that tides will stay below those critical values.

A cold front is expected sometime in the back half of next week,
which will increase winds and seas.

Luchs

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 91 72 90 71 90 20 10 10 10 30
houston (iah) 90 73 89 73 89 20 10 30 10 30
galveston (gls) 90 79 90 79 88 20 10 30 10 30

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 39
aviation marine... 25


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 5 mi45 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 82°F1012.7 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 10 mi45 min SE 8 G 8.9 81°F 84°F1012.7 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 17 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 78°F 81°F1011.9 hPa
GRRT2 22 mi45 min NNE 6 G 7 81°F 84°F1012.6 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi51 min ESE 8 G 9.9 83°F1012.2 hPa
GTOT2 23 mi45 min 81°F 84°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 6 81°F 83°F1012.7 hPa
HIST2 31 mi45 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 84°F1013 hPa
LUIT2 38 mi45 min ESE 7 G 9.9 82°F
KXIH 38 mi28 min
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 40 mi63 min ESE 9.7 G 12 82°F 83°F2 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.6)75°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 49 mi45 min E 6 G 8.9 81°F 83°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi73 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F71°F89%1013.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX16 mi3.2 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds77°F73°F89%1012.9 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX23 mi68 minN 49.00 miFair77°F75°F94%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3SE5--E8CalmE9SE9E9SE8E9SE8SE6SE3--CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNE3SE3SE5S8E9N9
G25
Calm--SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E4E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3S9S7SE7SE6SW8W10E4SE7SE7S8--SE4SE4CalmSE4SE3SE3SE4SE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Barbours Cut
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:06 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM CDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:31 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:05 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.51.41.31.21.21.11.21.21.21.21.21.10.90.80.60.50.50.50.60.811.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:53 AM CDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:49 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:34 AM CDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:16 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:14 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:48 PM CDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:43 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:50 PM CDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.30.30.1-0.3-0.8-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.4-1-0.50.20.91.31.41.30.90.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.