Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Seabrook, TX
May 6, 2024 3:41 PM CDT (20:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 4:23 AM Moonset 5:43 PM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1021 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight.
Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1021 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
fetch of moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and icww well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast Thursday night.
fetch of moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and icww well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. There is only a slight chance of rain, if any, expected into midweek. Onshore flow should prevail until the next cold front pushes off the coast Thursday night.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 061946 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
High humidity, gusty southeast winds, temperatures in the 80s, and widespread low/mid level cumulus rule the day on this Monday.
Capping has prevented the aforementioned cumulus from growing into organized shower/thunderstorm activity. Capping will keep PoPs low, but not necessarily non-zero. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible, especially across our northern counties.
Some runs of the HRRR today are showing thunderstorms nearing our Brazos Valley counties this afternoon. That remains to be seen but also cannot be ruled out due to weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. Tonight promises to be another muggy night featuring a developing low cloud deck and patchy fog.
At first glance, tomorrow looks very similar to today. However, one key difference will be the increasing ~850MB WAA. 850MB temps are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees celsius higher tomorrow afternoon.
Diurnal mixing should allow this WAA to mix down to the sfc layer, resulting in hotter temperatures tomorrow afternoon. How hot? Many inland locations are likely to make a run for the 90 degree mark. Meanwhile, high levels of humidity will make it feel about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperature. Some guidance, particularly the NBM, is quite aggressive with afternoon dew points, indicating widespread values in the 75F to 77F range. If that were the case, then heat index values could be another 3 to 5 degrees hotter than currently predicted. But since the NBM is featuring a higher dew point bias today (not uncommon), we opted to mix in some "drier" guidance to tame those afternoon dew points down to 73-74F (still nasty).
Even though tomorrow's heat is technically below advisory criteria, these temperatures and dew points are quite high for early May.
Therefore, practicing heat safety is warranted. Heat safety precautions include drinking plenty of water, wearing light clothing, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors if working or doing physical activity outside. If you think it's uncomfortable outside, so does your pet! Never leave children or pets in the car this time of year (LOOK before you LOCK).
Self
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
You might be thinking "it's too early for it to be this hot!" as you see low 90s in the forecast through Thursday...so let's take a brief peek into the climatology (for the City of Houston). We have a high temperature of 90°F forecast for Houston on May 7th...the last time our first 90+°F day was this late was in 2018. Four out of the last five years we've hit 90+°F for the first time of the year in March/April. Our average first day of 90+°F temperatures is May 6th, so we're right around average...nut 90s are 90s so that's hot no matter what month it is. With southwesterly flow aloft persisting, 850mb temperatures will reach the 20-25°C range Wednesday and Thursday. This is around their 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS), so high temperatures in the low 90s are definitely supported. The heat itself isn't the only story...given the saturated soils from the recent rainfall, humidity values will be a bit higher leading to elevated heat index values (100-105°F). Additional moisture moves in on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary (we'll get to that soon), so this is the day we're watching the closest for now for a potential early season Heat Advisory since our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & outdoor clean-up efforts).
Now about that cold front! An upper level low will traverse from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region midweek. The surface low will follow a similar east-southeastward track through the Central CONUS and drag a cold front towards Southeast TX. The cold front will be sitting on our doorsteps as early as Tuesday morning, but the parent low sits nearly stationary over the Northern Plains so there won't be much movement until the new surface low forms further south midweek. We will be in the warm sector, so there'll be plenty of shear and instability to work with. Recall our elevated 850mb temperatures though which is the source of our subsidence inversion layer aloft (cap), so any storms that attempt to develop along and ahead of the front will have to battle that. That cap is stronger the further south you go on both Wednesday and Thursday. While there is a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for portions of Southeast Texas Wednesday/Thursday, it all depends on if any convection can break the cap to tap into the elevated instability and shear. Rain chances Thursday are mainly along and north of I-10 as the front pushes through the area and we'll likely be too capped further south for any storms to make it.
Temperatures do cool down a bit post-FROPA with highs on Friday and over the weekend back into the 80s and overnight temperatures mainly in the 60s. The surface high pressure that builds in on Friday behind the front pushes eastward over the weekend allowing for moisture to return. Rain chances remain over the weekend with various shortwaves passing through, but most notably on Sunday as it appears a coastal trough will drift through the area.
Batiste
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
MVFR cigs should continue to transition into a lower end VFR cumulus deck this afternoon. Best chance of MVFR cigs hanging on through the afternoon will be near the coast. Winds will become more southeast and increase during the afternoon. Winds decrease tonight, with widespread MVFR cigs returning. Patchy fog will be possible. Areas of IFR cigs are possible as well. Winds gradually become more southerly tonight before becoming southwest tomorrow morning. Southeast winds to return by tomorrow afternoon along with a return to VFR.
MARINE
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through midweek until a cold front pushes offshore late Thursday night. This persistent onshore flow will keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range and may occasionally reach 6 ft in the farshore waters. Another consequence of the moderate onshore flow is elevated rip current risks. Dangerous rip currents can be expected along all Gulf facing beaches through midweek. We're also monitoring for the potential of coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around midweek during times of high tide. A cold front pushes offshore on late Thursday night bringing a period of northeasterly winds that prevail into the weekend. Showers/storms are expected to make a return over the weekend, especially Sunday, as the next system arrives.
Mariners should note that high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks).
Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
High humidity, gusty southeast winds, temperatures in the 80s, and widespread low/mid level cumulus rule the day on this Monday.
Capping has prevented the aforementioned cumulus from growing into organized shower/thunderstorm activity. Capping will keep PoPs low, but not necessarily non-zero. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible, especially across our northern counties.
Some runs of the HRRR today are showing thunderstorms nearing our Brazos Valley counties this afternoon. That remains to be seen but also cannot be ruled out due to weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. Tonight promises to be another muggy night featuring a developing low cloud deck and patchy fog.
At first glance, tomorrow looks very similar to today. However, one key difference will be the increasing ~850MB WAA. 850MB temps are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees celsius higher tomorrow afternoon.
Diurnal mixing should allow this WAA to mix down to the sfc layer, resulting in hotter temperatures tomorrow afternoon. How hot? Many inland locations are likely to make a run for the 90 degree mark. Meanwhile, high levels of humidity will make it feel about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperature. Some guidance, particularly the NBM, is quite aggressive with afternoon dew points, indicating widespread values in the 75F to 77F range. If that were the case, then heat index values could be another 3 to 5 degrees hotter than currently predicted. But since the NBM is featuring a higher dew point bias today (not uncommon), we opted to mix in some "drier" guidance to tame those afternoon dew points down to 73-74F (still nasty).
Even though tomorrow's heat is technically below advisory criteria, these temperatures and dew points are quite high for early May.
Therefore, practicing heat safety is warranted. Heat safety precautions include drinking plenty of water, wearing light clothing, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors if working or doing physical activity outside. If you think it's uncomfortable outside, so does your pet! Never leave children or pets in the car this time of year (LOOK before you LOCK).
Self
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
You might be thinking "it's too early for it to be this hot!" as you see low 90s in the forecast through Thursday...so let's take a brief peek into the climatology (for the City of Houston). We have a high temperature of 90°F forecast for Houston on May 7th...the last time our first 90+°F day was this late was in 2018. Four out of the last five years we've hit 90+°F for the first time of the year in March/April. Our average first day of 90+°F temperatures is May 6th, so we're right around average...nut 90s are 90s so that's hot no matter what month it is. With southwesterly flow aloft persisting, 850mb temperatures will reach the 20-25°C range Wednesday and Thursday. This is around their 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS), so high temperatures in the low 90s are definitely supported. The heat itself isn't the only story...given the saturated soils from the recent rainfall, humidity values will be a bit higher leading to elevated heat index values (100-105°F). Additional moisture moves in on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary (we'll get to that soon), so this is the day we're watching the closest for now for a potential early season Heat Advisory since our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & outdoor clean-up efforts).
Now about that cold front! An upper level low will traverse from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region midweek. The surface low will follow a similar east-southeastward track through the Central CONUS and drag a cold front towards Southeast TX. The cold front will be sitting on our doorsteps as early as Tuesday morning, but the parent low sits nearly stationary over the Northern Plains so there won't be much movement until the new surface low forms further south midweek. We will be in the warm sector, so there'll be plenty of shear and instability to work with. Recall our elevated 850mb temperatures though which is the source of our subsidence inversion layer aloft (cap), so any storms that attempt to develop along and ahead of the front will have to battle that. That cap is stronger the further south you go on both Wednesday and Thursday. While there is a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for portions of Southeast Texas Wednesday/Thursday, it all depends on if any convection can break the cap to tap into the elevated instability and shear. Rain chances Thursday are mainly along and north of I-10 as the front pushes through the area and we'll likely be too capped further south for any storms to make it.
Temperatures do cool down a bit post-FROPA with highs on Friday and over the weekend back into the 80s and overnight temperatures mainly in the 60s. The surface high pressure that builds in on Friday behind the front pushes eastward over the weekend allowing for moisture to return. Rain chances remain over the weekend with various shortwaves passing through, but most notably on Sunday as it appears a coastal trough will drift through the area.
Batiste
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
MVFR cigs should continue to transition into a lower end VFR cumulus deck this afternoon. Best chance of MVFR cigs hanging on through the afternoon will be near the coast. Winds will become more southeast and increase during the afternoon. Winds decrease tonight, with widespread MVFR cigs returning. Patchy fog will be possible. Areas of IFR cigs are possible as well. Winds gradually become more southerly tonight before becoming southwest tomorrow morning. Southeast winds to return by tomorrow afternoon along with a return to VFR.
MARINE
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through midweek until a cold front pushes offshore late Thursday night. This persistent onshore flow will keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range and may occasionally reach 6 ft in the farshore waters. Another consequence of the moderate onshore flow is elevated rip current risks. Dangerous rip currents can be expected along all Gulf facing beaches through midweek. We're also monitoring for the potential of coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around midweek during times of high tide. A cold front pushes offshore on late Thursday night bringing a period of northeasterly winds that prevail into the weekend. Showers/storms are expected to make a return over the weekend, especially Sunday, as the next system arrives.
Mariners should note that high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult.
Batiste
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks).
Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters.
Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.
Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon:
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage
Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 76 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 5 mi | 54 min | ESE 18G | 79°F | 74°F | 29.81 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 10 mi | 54 min | SSE 15G | 82°F | 78°F | 29.81 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 17 mi | 54 min | S 8.9G | 83°F | 29.78 | |||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 22 mi | 54 min | SSE 14G | 79°F | 78°F | 29.80 | ||
| GRRT2 | 22 mi | 54 min | ESE 12G | 78°F | 79°F | 29.79 | ||
| GTOT2 | 23 mi | 54 min | SSE 8G | 81°F | 78°F | 29.79 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 26 mi | 54 min | SSE 14G | 77°F | 82°F | 29.82 | ||
| HIST2 | 31 mi | 54 min | SSE 5.1G | 81°F | 84°F | 29.84 | ||
| LUIT2 | 38 mi | 54 min | ESE 8.9G | 80°F | 79°F | 29.81 | ||
| KGVW | 40 mi | 27 min | ESE 13 | 77°F | 75°F | |||
| FPST2 | 49 mi | 54 min | ESE 11G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.79 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 10 sm | 47 min | SE 16 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 72°F | 66% | 29.81 | |
| KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX | 15 sm | 48 min | S 13G22 | 8 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.83 | |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 16 sm | 48 min | SSE 18G23 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 86°F | 72°F | 62% | 29.80 | |
| KGLS SCHOLES INTL AT GALVESTON,TX | 24 sm | 23 min | SE 13 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 77°F | 84% | 29.82 |
Clear Lake
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:31 AM CDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:24 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:36 AM CDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM CDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:00 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:48 PM CDT 0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:31 AM CDT -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:24 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:36 AM CDT 0.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM CDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:00 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:48 PM CDT 0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.1 |
| 5 am |
| -0 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:51 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:07 AM CDT 2.00 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:23 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:45 AM CDT -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:37 PM CDT -0.04 knots Min Ebb
Mon -- 06:41 PM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM CDT -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:51 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:07 AM CDT 2.00 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:23 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:45 AM CDT -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:37 PM CDT -0.04 knots Min Ebb
Mon -- 06:41 PM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 07:59 PM CDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:22 PM CDT -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| -2 |
| 10 pm |
| -2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.7 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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