Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marineland, FL
May 17, 2024 8:19 AM EDT (12:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 2:06 PM Moonset 2:14 AM |
AMZ454 Expires:202405172115;;352034 Fzus52 Kjax 170716 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 316 am edt Fri may 17 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-172115- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 316 am edt Fri may 17 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night - North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Tuesday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 316 am edt Fri may 17 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-172115- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 316 am edt Fri may 17 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 316 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
weak high pressure will linger today before a weak area of low pressure lifts to the north tonight, dragging a warm into the waters from the west. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for Thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure Wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
weak high pressure will linger today before a weak area of low pressure lifts to the north tonight, dragging a warm into the waters from the west. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for Thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure Wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.
Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 171055 AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 655 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
Today and Tonight...
A broad, thick shield of cloud cover associated with a severe squall line well to the west will overspread the region this morning. This should limit fog potential for most of the area. The severe squall, though intense at the time of this discussion, will decay as it tracks eastward into the stable airmass situated across northeast FL. A few remnant light showers and sprinkles may accompany the mostly cloudy skies but thunderstorm chances will be near nil this morning.
The cloudy conditions will hamper heating some while warm southerly flow attempts to compensate. End result will be for temps to rise to the mid/upper 80s in southeast GA and upper 80s and low 90s in northeast and north-central FL today.
Late this evening and tonight, a weak surface low will track just to the northeast across GA and drag an attendant warm front across the entire area. The moist and unstable airmass that will follow behind it will set the stage for an active period of weather through the day Saturday; however, there is potential for a few bouts of isolated to scattered convection across southeast GA late tonight as a lagging shortwave ejects northeastward. Forecast soundings and the latest HRRR instability progs suggest the potential for strong, possibly severe storms, storms. That said, there is lingering uncertainty regarding evolution of the convection and whether storms (if they develop far enough south) will be surface-based or elevated. SPC has kept a Marginal Risk for the interior portions of southeast GA and extended south into the Suwannee Valley to account for the uncertainty.
Given the moisture surge behind the warm front, lows will be more mild tonight and generally read in the low 70s. Otherwise, if winds subside enough, patchy inland fog may develop across portions of NE FL late tonight.
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Saturday, a compact southern stream trough over the mid MS valley will shift east along the OH and TN river valleys during the day with embedded shortwave energy running through the base of the trough from the Gulf coast into the southeast states. The trough will support a weak surface low with a trailing cold front that will move eastward across the deep south states. Southwest low level flow will yield moisture levels over the area between 1.60 and 1.80 inches, beyond the 75th percentile and should support healthy rainfall rates with rounds of showers and storms that will spread northeast from the FL panhandle along inland SE GA early and then inch farther east through much of the area Saturday afternoon. A band of scattered to numerous Storms will likewise arrive by the early afternoon inland and mid to late afternoon over locations closer to the coast. The storm prediction center has a Slight risk (category 2 out of 5) for isolated severe storm potential for areas in SE GA, the Suwanee Valley and locations along and north of I-10 as strong 0-6km bulk shear values 50-60 knots will be coincident within a divergent nose of an approaching 250 mb jet streak and will help create a threat for gusty winds approaching 60 mph with more intense cells. Mostly cloudy skies will remain over SE GA and trend towards partly cloudy over NE FL where highs will be warmer into the low 90s with isolated mid 90s possible along I-95 corridor south of Jacksonville into the southern St Johns basin as southwest winds pin the Atlantic seabreeze to the immediate NE FL coast.
Saturday night will be moist and muggy with scattered to numerous showers and T'storms continuing due to unstable southwest flow ahead of the cold front still dragging through south GA overnight.
Lows will be in the low 70s over NE FL and the upper 60s over SE GA with light southwest winds under mostly cloudy skies.
Sunday, the mid level trough will extend from the Mid Atlantic coast southwest into the southern Appalachian and shift south and east into the Carolinas into south GA through the day. This will slowly drag the cold front north to south through our area with scattered to numerous showers and T'storms. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will again be in play as cooler mid level temperatures from the core of the trough overlapping strong surface heating will create a threat for gusty winds and large hail as storms form along the cold frontal boundary and the pinned Atlantic seabreeze. Mostly cloudy skies ahead of and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies behind the boundary with light southwest winds shifting to more westerly late in the afternoon over SE GA and then into NE FL by evening. Highs will be less warm and closer to normal for most areas save for the St Johns river basin where highs will reach in the upper 80s to near 90 as there will be more time before the frontal passage.
Sunday night, as the cold front finally sinks south of the area, light westerly winds will shift northwesterly.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
A drier pattern will resume over the region during next week as a compact cut off mid/upper level trough slowly exits off of the southeast coast as ridging aloft forms over the northeast states and then builds from the southwest Gulf towards the region midweek. Isolated to scattered onshore convergent showers may pinwheel on the backside of a weak surface low as it slowly moves north and east away from the coast into the western Atlantic while modest high pressure wedges south from the Mid Atlantic coast.
North to northeast winds will keep daytime highs on the cooler side Monday and Tuesday with low to mid 80s near the coast and upper 80s well inland towards I-75 in NE FL and US 441 in SE GA under partly cloudy skies Monday and mostly sunny skies Tuesday.
As mid to upper ridging builds into the area from the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, highs will climb into the low to mid 90s by Thursday with weak surface high pressure over the region allowing light winds and development of Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes to drift inland with no showers or storms expected until Thursday as moisture levels finally creep up towards average for late May.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
With the exception of MVFR fog at VQQ, am keeping VFR conditions early this morning as remnant showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf decrease in intensity as they move eastward and will likely only impact GNV with light rain and perhaps VCTS coverage of any lingering storms before weakening south and the other TAF sites. A warm front will lift through the TAF sites with VCSH coverage after 15Z associated with the front. WInds will be from the south at inland airfields while a sea breeze turns winds SSE at coastal airfields this afternoon. Airmass will become further unstable behind the lifting warm this evening, trending winds southwesterly at or below 5 to 8 kts with a few showers possible during the evening hours at all airfields. Period will end with MVFR ceilings around 1.5 kft and MVFR fog at GNV and VQQ light southwest winds 4 to 6 knots or less.
MARINE
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Weak high pressure will linger today before a weak area of low pressure lifts to the north tonight, dragging a warm into the waters from the west. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Rip Currents: Low surf and weak flow, turning offshore through Saturday, will keep a low risk for rip currents at area beaches over the next couple of days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 73 87 69 / 40 50 80 60 SSI 84 74 90 70 / 10 20 50 60 JAX 89 72 93 70 / 20 20 50 50 SGJ 88 72 93 71 / 20 10 40 50 GNV 89 71 91 70 / 30 10 60 60 OCF 89 73 92 72 / 40 0 50 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 655 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
Today and Tonight...
A broad, thick shield of cloud cover associated with a severe squall line well to the west will overspread the region this morning. This should limit fog potential for most of the area. The severe squall, though intense at the time of this discussion, will decay as it tracks eastward into the stable airmass situated across northeast FL. A few remnant light showers and sprinkles may accompany the mostly cloudy skies but thunderstorm chances will be near nil this morning.
The cloudy conditions will hamper heating some while warm southerly flow attempts to compensate. End result will be for temps to rise to the mid/upper 80s in southeast GA and upper 80s and low 90s in northeast and north-central FL today.
Late this evening and tonight, a weak surface low will track just to the northeast across GA and drag an attendant warm front across the entire area. The moist and unstable airmass that will follow behind it will set the stage for an active period of weather through the day Saturday; however, there is potential for a few bouts of isolated to scattered convection across southeast GA late tonight as a lagging shortwave ejects northeastward. Forecast soundings and the latest HRRR instability progs suggest the potential for strong, possibly severe storms, storms. That said, there is lingering uncertainty regarding evolution of the convection and whether storms (if they develop far enough south) will be surface-based or elevated. SPC has kept a Marginal Risk for the interior portions of southeast GA and extended south into the Suwannee Valley to account for the uncertainty.
Given the moisture surge behind the warm front, lows will be more mild tonight and generally read in the low 70s. Otherwise, if winds subside enough, patchy inland fog may develop across portions of NE FL late tonight.
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Saturday, a compact southern stream trough over the mid MS valley will shift east along the OH and TN river valleys during the day with embedded shortwave energy running through the base of the trough from the Gulf coast into the southeast states. The trough will support a weak surface low with a trailing cold front that will move eastward across the deep south states. Southwest low level flow will yield moisture levels over the area between 1.60 and 1.80 inches, beyond the 75th percentile and should support healthy rainfall rates with rounds of showers and storms that will spread northeast from the FL panhandle along inland SE GA early and then inch farther east through much of the area Saturday afternoon. A band of scattered to numerous Storms will likewise arrive by the early afternoon inland and mid to late afternoon over locations closer to the coast. The storm prediction center has a Slight risk (category 2 out of 5) for isolated severe storm potential for areas in SE GA, the Suwanee Valley and locations along and north of I-10 as strong 0-6km bulk shear values 50-60 knots will be coincident within a divergent nose of an approaching 250 mb jet streak and will help create a threat for gusty winds approaching 60 mph with more intense cells. Mostly cloudy skies will remain over SE GA and trend towards partly cloudy over NE FL where highs will be warmer into the low 90s with isolated mid 90s possible along I-95 corridor south of Jacksonville into the southern St Johns basin as southwest winds pin the Atlantic seabreeze to the immediate NE FL coast.
Saturday night will be moist and muggy with scattered to numerous showers and T'storms continuing due to unstable southwest flow ahead of the cold front still dragging through south GA overnight.
Lows will be in the low 70s over NE FL and the upper 60s over SE GA with light southwest winds under mostly cloudy skies.
Sunday, the mid level trough will extend from the Mid Atlantic coast southwest into the southern Appalachian and shift south and east into the Carolinas into south GA through the day. This will slowly drag the cold front north to south through our area with scattered to numerous showers and T'storms. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will again be in play as cooler mid level temperatures from the core of the trough overlapping strong surface heating will create a threat for gusty winds and large hail as storms form along the cold frontal boundary and the pinned Atlantic seabreeze. Mostly cloudy skies ahead of and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies behind the boundary with light southwest winds shifting to more westerly late in the afternoon over SE GA and then into NE FL by evening. Highs will be less warm and closer to normal for most areas save for the St Johns river basin where highs will reach in the upper 80s to near 90 as there will be more time before the frontal passage.
Sunday night, as the cold front finally sinks south of the area, light westerly winds will shift northwesterly.
LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
A drier pattern will resume over the region during next week as a compact cut off mid/upper level trough slowly exits off of the southeast coast as ridging aloft forms over the northeast states and then builds from the southwest Gulf towards the region midweek. Isolated to scattered onshore convergent showers may pinwheel on the backside of a weak surface low as it slowly moves north and east away from the coast into the western Atlantic while modest high pressure wedges south from the Mid Atlantic coast.
North to northeast winds will keep daytime highs on the cooler side Monday and Tuesday with low to mid 80s near the coast and upper 80s well inland towards I-75 in NE FL and US 441 in SE GA under partly cloudy skies Monday and mostly sunny skies Tuesday.
As mid to upper ridging builds into the area from the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, highs will climb into the low to mid 90s by Thursday with weak surface high pressure over the region allowing light winds and development of Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes to drift inland with no showers or storms expected until Thursday as moisture levels finally creep up towards average for late May.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
With the exception of MVFR fog at VQQ, am keeping VFR conditions early this morning as remnant showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf decrease in intensity as they move eastward and will likely only impact GNV with light rain and perhaps VCTS coverage of any lingering storms before weakening south and the other TAF sites. A warm front will lift through the TAF sites with VCSH coverage after 15Z associated with the front. WInds will be from the south at inland airfields while a sea breeze turns winds SSE at coastal airfields this afternoon. Airmass will become further unstable behind the lifting warm this evening, trending winds southwesterly at or below 5 to 8 kts with a few showers possible during the evening hours at all airfields. Period will end with MVFR ceilings around 1.5 kft and MVFR fog at GNV and VQQ light southwest winds 4 to 6 knots or less.
MARINE
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
Weak high pressure will linger today before a weak area of low pressure lifts to the north tonight, dragging a warm into the waters from the west. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Rip Currents: Low surf and weak flow, turning offshore through Saturday, will keep a low risk for rip currents at area beaches over the next couple of days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 73 87 69 / 40 50 80 60 SSI 84 74 90 70 / 10 20 50 60 JAX 89 72 93 70 / 20 20 50 50 SGJ 88 72 93 71 / 20 10 40 50 GNV 89 71 91 70 / 30 10 60 60 OCF 89 73 92 72 / 40 0 50 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFIN FLAGLER EXECUTIVE,FL | 10 sm | 29 min | calm | 7 sm | Clear | 70°F | 70°F | 100% | 29.92 | |
| KOMN ORMOND BEACH MUNI,FL | 22 sm | 29 min | calm | 3 sm | -- | Mist | 72°F | 72°F | 100% | 29.91 |
Smith Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM EDT 0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM EDT 0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:37 AM EDT 0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM EDT 0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:01 PM EDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:00 PM EDT 0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
St. Augustine Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:16 AM EDT 3.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:31 AM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:55 PM EDT 3.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:57 PM EDT 0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:16 AM EDT 3.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:31 AM EDT 0.58 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:55 PM EDT 3.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:57 PM EDT 0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Augustine Beach, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.9 |
| 3 am |
| 3.5 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.7 |
| 6 am |
| 3.3 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Jacksonville, FL,
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