Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:56PM Sunday August 20, 2017 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 6:17PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1010 Am Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Today..Variable winds around 5 knots becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..North winds around 5 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1010 Am Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. The region of surface high pressure that was located over the northwestern gulf of mexico will begin to move northeastward today, and chances of showers and Thunderstorms will be returning to the forecast as this occurs. Light winds should remain out of the south to southeast with low seas throughout much of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 201151
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
651 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017

Aviation
Vfr across most TAF sites this morning in SE tx. MVFR ceilings
will be possible early this morning across the northern sites
cxo uts cll and low visibility due to mist at lbx. With daytime
heating, convective temperatures should be met by early afternoon.

Pws are on the rise pushing in from the east, and short term
guidance indicates better coverage for shr TS development today.

Included vcts across all TAF sites besides cll because most
convection looks to stay east of cll where the pws will be higher.

With the help of the seabreeze, expecting the sites closer to the
coast to see the development earlier today, continuing to spread
inland possibly impacting uts by 21z. Gusty winds will be possible
beneath stronger storms this afternoon. Expecting shr TS to
diminish around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Wind
speeds should also lower slightly overnight Sunday, and lower
ceilings could build back in again for the northern TAF sites and
lbx.

Hathaway

Prev discussion issued 445 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
discussion...

after my awips2 cave session crashed with my completed afd wiped
out before sending, here's an abbreviated version of what I can
remember I wrote...

goes 16 fog imagery has been picking up on some patchy fog mainly
west and southwest of houston. Visibility has been ranging from
1sm to 6sm at most sites with klbx varying the most which is
driving our aviation forecaster insane. The insanity should stop
later this morning once winds start to mix which won't be that
much since there is hardly a pressure gradient.

Upper level pattern looks to be quasi-zonal across the northern
tier of states with a trough over the great lakes or new england
states. Pesky tutt now in the E gulf west of florida as seen in
water vapor imagery. GOES 16 derived pw imagery shows a plume of 2
inch pw off the coast of la. Nam GFS show enough 925-700 mb flow
to advect this higher moisture over SE texas by this evening. This
along with the sea breeze should support a few showers and storms
this afternoon with most activity east of i-45.

Monday to Wednesday there is really not a lot of change as the
tutt moves over the NW gulf lowering heights and allowing for
scattered showers and storms given the higher moisture. Forecast
will keep 30-40 pop for Monday Tuesday. Wednesday will go with 30
pops as a frontal boundary begins to slide south from N tx. It
gets a boost from a short wave trough diving through the great
lakes on Thursday. Front should stall inland in line with the
gfs ECMWF solutions. Front should maintain 30-40 pop for the rest
of the week. Upper ridge builds next weekend so could see a drying
trend from the rainfall potential.

Bottom line at the bottom... Will I be able to view the solar
eclipse on Monday? On the bright side we are not forecasting
overcast skies. But there is still the potential for
scattered broken cloud decks to form due to developing convection
late morning into the early afternoon when viewing the eclipse.

Areas north of houston will have the best viewing probabilities
but those chances will be less south of houston where convection
may be developing.

Overpeck
tropics...

in short, TS harvey died a horrible death. After last night's
convective burst, it looked like harvey could hold on, but some
drier air and shear got the better of it as can happen in the
caribbean. It sill could make a comeback as it nears the nw
caribbean. The problem is that the system could interact with land
quite a bit before emerging in the bay of campeche. If it
survives that interaction, then it will only have a little time to
organize before moving into mexico again. Still something to
monitor over the next few days.

Overpeck
marine...

currently, fairly light and variable winds across SE tx. By
sunrise, the wind direction should be out of the SW prior to the
passage of the seabreeze Sunday afternoon, then becoming more
southeasterly. Sea heights currently between 1-2 feet will also
rise to 2-3 feet early next week. The area of surface high
pressure will begin to weaken and shift further northeastward
throughout the day Sunday, allowing for a rise in moisture
migrating in from the southeast. With precipitable waters on the
rise tomorrow, expecting better coverage of showers and
thunderstorms originally building mostly over the nearshore waters
early morning before pushing onshore. Brief elevated seas and
gusty winds can be expected beneath stronger storms. Additionally,
an area of disturbed weather associated with a region of low
pressure will also help to increase our chances for shower and
thunderstorm coverage Sunday through mid-week. Drier conditions
should prevail late week as high pressure begins to build back
into the region, with winds out of the southeast and seas again
lowering to 1-2 feet.

No big changes in the tides evening. Tides are still running
around normal to only slightly above normal by less than a half
foot.

Hathaway

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 99 76 98 75 98 10 10 20 10 20
houston (iah) 97 78 94 77 94 20 10 40 10 40
galveston (gls) 93 82 91 82 91 20 10 40 10 30

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 39
aviation marine... 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi38 min WSW 1 G 5.1 86°F 88°F1016.5 hPa
LYBT2 10 mi38 min W 4.1 G 5.1 85°F 87°F1016.7 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi38 min Calm G 2.9 85°F 89°F1016.7 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi38 min Calm G 1.9 89°F 86°F1015.8 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi38 min SW 2.9 G 7 88°F 89°F1016.6 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi44 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 87°F1016.1 hPa
GTOT2 25 mi38 min 85°F 88°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi38 min NNW 5.1 G 6 86°F 85°F1016.7 hPa
HIST2 32 mi38 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 85°F 88°F1016.9 hPa
LUIT2 40 mi38 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1 85°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi26 min Calm G 1.9 89°F 87°F1 ft1016.3 hPa (+1.2)77°F

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi36 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F75°F59%1017.3 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi33 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F73°F63%1016.9 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair88°F75°F66%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5CalmSW6CalmNE8E6SE8S8S6S5S6S4S4SW3--SW3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoSW5W4--SE5--SE8SE8SE7--SE6S7S5S5--CalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4--
2 days agoS6S9SW9SW8SE7S12--SE11S12S8S5S4S3S3S3CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Barbours Cut
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:46 AM CDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM CDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.100.30.60.91.21.41.51.51.51.41.41.31.31.31.31.21.10.90.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:17 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:38 AM CDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:41 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:21 PM CDT     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:09 PM CDT     -0.18 knots Min Ebb
Sun -- 07:16 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:55 PM CDT     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-0.30.71.5221.81.51.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.3-0.5-1-1.5-1.9-2.1-2.2-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.