Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan's Point, TX
May 4, 2024 10:36 PM CDT (03:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:33 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM Moonset 3:28 PM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 954 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely late in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy in the late evening and overnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the late morning and afternoon.
Monday night and Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday night and Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 954 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail for the remainder of the weekend and on into the start of the upcoming week. Winds and seas will reach small craft exercise caution levels at times. An organized line of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected very late tonight through much of Sunday morning and afternoon with the potential for some strong and gusty winds. Drier weather and warmer temperatures are still on schedule for much of the upcoming week.
moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail for the remainder of the weekend and on into the start of the upcoming week. Winds and seas will reach small craft exercise caution levels at times. An organized line of showers and Thunderstorms can be expected very late tonight through much of Sunday morning and afternoon with the potential for some strong and gusty winds. Drier weather and warmer temperatures are still on schedule for much of the upcoming week.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 050002 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 702 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Key Messages:
⏺Flood Watch in effect through Sunday evening for portions of SE Texas
⏺Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible tonight through Sunday night (highest amounts generally along and north of I-10)
Showers continuing to move through Polk County this afternoon. With a warm, moist, and unstable environment isolated activity could continue north of I-10 through the afternoon.
Our attention turns to tonight through the Sunday night period. SE Texas remains under a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. The current environment will set the stage for the next heavy rainfall event. A shortwave trough will bring another thunderstorm complex that will move across Central Texas later tonight. The MCS is projected to arrive at our western border (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and spread SE Sunday as another MCS makes its way through the area.
Soundings reveal a deep saturated layer, PWs near 1.75-2", and a deep warm cloud layer. This, in addition to a developing LLJ will contribute to high precipitation efficiency, and heavier rainfall.
Precipitation totals will average 1-3" with smaller areas receiving higher amounts of 4-8" (generally along and north of I-10).
Unfortunately, much of this area has already been impacted by heavy rain in the last 7 days, so it will not take much to trigger flash flooding once again. For this reason, WPC has kept the Brazos Valley, Piney Woods, and down to the far NW portion of Harris County in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall while much of the rest of the area (with the exception of the immediate coast) remains in a Marginal Risk for today into tonight.
For Sunday the majority of the area will be in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as rounds of showers and storms continue to move through. There is a bullseye for the Moderate Risk area that is focused over portions of Houston County, much of the Brazos Valley, down to the I-10 corridor and east into Liberty County. With many locations within these areas having experienced the most impacts from recent rainfall, any rainfall over these areas would contribute to or worsen existing flooding.
In addition to the flood threat, SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal Risk and a sliver of the Brazos Valley in a Slight Risk for severe weather tonight. For tomorrow, the SW CWA is in a Slight Risk and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. There is sufficient instability with this stronger shortwave, so a few storms could become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging winds.
As this event unfolds, please make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, avoid driving across flooded roads, and do not drive around barricades. Remember, "Turn Around Don't Drown!"
Adams
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The heavy rain threat finally comes to an end on Monday allowing for rivers to have an extended period to drain. Widespread rain chances don't return till the end of the work week, but with southwesterly flow aloft dominating throughout much of the week we'll move into a period of above normal temperatures. Subtle ridging briefly builds in on Monday allowing for temperatures to increase into the upper 80s...and the temperature climb doesn't stop there. An upper level low will persist in the Northern Plains into midweek, which kicks the ridge axis eastward...but helps to induce southwesterly flow aloft. 850mb temperatures subsequently surge into the 99th to MAX percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), so expect temperatures from Tuesday into the end of the work week to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The hottest temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. With grounds already saturated though, this may lead to higher amounts of humidity so we'll have to monitor heat index values. Wednesday and Thursday are again the days to monitor as heat index values look to range from 98- 105°F. Given the early onset of this heat (our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & clean-up efforts), there is at least some chatter around here about the potential for a Heat Advisory.
The southwesterly flow aloft means we remain in good positioning for shortwaves to pass through and generate some showers/storms. These aren't anticipated to be widespread though. The first rain chance comes on Wednesday, but as of right now it appears that most of the convection will dissipate before it reaches Southeast TX from the north thanks to a subsidence inversion layer aloft. We'll see if the LLJ can help overcome that cap, but it doesn't look too likely at the moment (never say never though). Our best chance of rain is at the end of the work week as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Rain chances first appear across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Thursday afternoon, then the rest of Southeast Texas Friday and into the weekend.
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Area will become MVFR this evening with SHRA/TSRA possibly developing/moving across parts of the area. Stronger SHRA/TSRA complex will be moving into the area overnight with some storms possibly becoming severe and with locally heavy rain. Could see IFR ceilings/visibilities with this activity. Will carry lingering SHRA/TSRA in the TAFs for the morning and afternoon hours along with some lifting ceilings, but we will have to see if any stabilization happens from the overnight activity. Confidence is on the high side for the first 12 hours of the TAFS and on the low side for the last 12 to 18 hours of the TAF.
42
MARINE
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach Small Craft Should Exercise Caution levels at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the weekend, but a more organized line of thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast early Sunday morning, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return to the area during the upcoming week.
42
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The Flood Watch has been extended to 7pm CDT Sunday evening and expanded to now include Austin/Colorado Counties. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in areas that have already received excessive amounts of rain over the past few days. At this time, we are anticipating an average of an additional 1-3" of rain with smaller areas of 4-8" possible within the watch area. With soils already saturated, this will likely lead to quick runoff and rapid responses along area rivers/creeks/bayous.
Moderate to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage:
- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 81 70 86 / 70 70 10 0 Houston (IAH) 72 82 72 87 / 50 70 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 82 / 20 40 20 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-300-313.
High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ370-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 702 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Key Messages:
⏺Flood Watch in effect through Sunday evening for portions of SE Texas
⏺Widespread 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible tonight through Sunday night (highest amounts generally along and north of I-10)
Showers continuing to move through Polk County this afternoon. With a warm, moist, and unstable environment isolated activity could continue north of I-10 through the afternoon.
Our attention turns to tonight through the Sunday night period. SE Texas remains under a warm, moist, and unstable airmass. The current environment will set the stage for the next heavy rainfall event. A shortwave trough will bring another thunderstorm complex that will move across Central Texas later tonight. The MCS is projected to arrive at our western border (Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and spread SE Sunday as another MCS makes its way through the area.
Soundings reveal a deep saturated layer, PWs near 1.75-2", and a deep warm cloud layer. This, in addition to a developing LLJ will contribute to high precipitation efficiency, and heavier rainfall.
Precipitation totals will average 1-3" with smaller areas receiving higher amounts of 4-8" (generally along and north of I-10).
Unfortunately, much of this area has already been impacted by heavy rain in the last 7 days, so it will not take much to trigger flash flooding once again. For this reason, WPC has kept the Brazos Valley, Piney Woods, and down to the far NW portion of Harris County in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall while much of the rest of the area (with the exception of the immediate coast) remains in a Marginal Risk for today into tonight.
For Sunday the majority of the area will be in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall as rounds of showers and storms continue to move through. There is a bullseye for the Moderate Risk area that is focused over portions of Houston County, much of the Brazos Valley, down to the I-10 corridor and east into Liberty County. With many locations within these areas having experienced the most impacts from recent rainfall, any rainfall over these areas would contribute to or worsen existing flooding.
In addition to the flood threat, SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal Risk and a sliver of the Brazos Valley in a Slight Risk for severe weather tonight. For tomorrow, the SW CWA is in a Slight Risk and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk. There is sufficient instability with this stronger shortwave, so a few storms could become strong to severe and produce large hail and damaging winds.
As this event unfolds, please make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, avoid driving across flooded roads, and do not drive around barricades. Remember, "Turn Around Don't Drown!"
Adams
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The heavy rain threat finally comes to an end on Monday allowing for rivers to have an extended period to drain. Widespread rain chances don't return till the end of the work week, but with southwesterly flow aloft dominating throughout much of the week we'll move into a period of above normal temperatures. Subtle ridging briefly builds in on Monday allowing for temperatures to increase into the upper 80s...and the temperature climb doesn't stop there. An upper level low will persist in the Northern Plains into midweek, which kicks the ridge axis eastward...but helps to induce southwesterly flow aloft. 850mb temperatures subsequently surge into the 99th to MAX percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), so expect temperatures from Tuesday into the end of the work week to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The hottest temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s. With grounds already saturated though, this may lead to higher amounts of humidity so we'll have to monitor heat index values. Wednesday and Thursday are again the days to monitor as heat index values look to range from 98- 105°F. Given the early onset of this heat (our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & clean-up efforts), there is at least some chatter around here about the potential for a Heat Advisory.
The southwesterly flow aloft means we remain in good positioning for shortwaves to pass through and generate some showers/storms. These aren't anticipated to be widespread though. The first rain chance comes on Wednesday, but as of right now it appears that most of the convection will dissipate before it reaches Southeast TX from the north thanks to a subsidence inversion layer aloft. We'll see if the LLJ can help overcome that cap, but it doesn't look too likely at the moment (never say never though). Our best chance of rain is at the end of the work week as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Rain chances first appear across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Thursday afternoon, then the rest of Southeast Texas Friday and into the weekend.
Batiste
AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Area will become MVFR this evening with SHRA/TSRA possibly developing/moving across parts of the area. Stronger SHRA/TSRA complex will be moving into the area overnight with some storms possibly becoming severe and with locally heavy rain. Could see IFR ceilings/visibilities with this activity. Will carry lingering SHRA/TSRA in the TAFs for the morning and afternoon hours along with some lifting ceilings, but we will have to see if any stabilization happens from the overnight activity. Confidence is on the high side for the first 12 hours of the TAFS and on the low side for the last 12 to 18 hours of the TAF.
42
MARINE
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will prevail through the weekend and into next week. Winds and seas will reach Small Craft Should Exercise Caution levels at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue over the weekend, but a more organized line of thunderstorms is expected to approach the coast early Sunday morning, potentially bringing gusty winds. Drier conditions return to the area during the upcoming week.
42
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The Flood Watch has been extended to 7pm CDT Sunday evening and expanded to now include Austin/Colorado Counties. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in areas that have already received excessive amounts of rain over the past few days. At this time, we are anticipating an average of an additional 1-3" of rain with smaller areas of 4-8" possible within the watch area. With soils already saturated, this will likely lead to quick runoff and rapid responses along area rivers/creeks/bayous.
Moderate to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage:
- Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
Batiste
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 69 81 70 86 / 70 70 10 0 Houston (IAH) 72 82 72 87 / 50 70 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 82 / 20 40 20 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-300-313.
High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ370-375.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 2 mi | 48 min | E 8.9G | 75°F | 74°F | 29.87 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 13 mi | 48 min | ESE 17G | 80°F | 79°F | 29.87 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 14 mi | 48 min | SW 5.1G | 77°F | 29.84 | |||
| GRRT2 | 25 mi | 48 min | E 13G | 76°F | 79°F | 29.85 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 26 mi | 48 min | SE 18G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.85 | ||
| GTOT2 | 27 mi | 48 min | SE 8G | 76°F | 78°F | 29.84 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 28 mi | 48 min | SE 14G | 76°F | 85°F | 29.88 | ||
| HIST2 | 33 mi | 48 min | ESE 7G | 76°F | 83°F | 29.91 | ||
| LUIT2 | 41 mi | 48 min | E 13G | 77°F | 80°F | 29.85 | ||
| KGVW | 44 mi | 21 min | ESE 17G |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 9 sm | 42 min | ESE 16 | 9 sm | Overcast | 77°F | 73°F | 89% | 29.87 | |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 14 sm | 17 min | SE 10 | 9 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 29.88 | |
| KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX | 16 sm | 11 min | ESE 10G17 | 9 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 72°F | 83% | 29.89 |
Tide / Current for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet
Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:33 AM CDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM CDT 0.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM CDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM CDT 0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:33 AM CDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:35 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM CDT 0.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:59 PM CDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM CDT 0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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