Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:46 AM

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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 1036 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest this afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Monday - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Monday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.

GMZ400 1036 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis - Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase Tuesday through Thursday due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure to the east and low pressure across the plains.

FXUS64 KLCH 191610 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1110 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE

Wx map shows 1016 mb surface high pressure ridge across MO/AR/LA this morning, with light east or variable winds 5 mph or less across the area. Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus across our region. Afternoon temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, with maximum heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at this time.

08/DML

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows the area now under the influence of high pressure centered near the Ozarks and ridging swd. Water vapor imagery indicates the region now on the back side of an ern CONUS trof with a dry nwrly flow in place aloft. Combo of these features has resulted in a clear night over the forecast area. With good radiating conditions in place, patchy fog has begun developing...as of press time, no stations are reporting dense fog. Regional 88Ds are PPINE.

In the near term, will continue to monitor sfc obs and traffic cams for any potential need for a Dense Fog Advisory...latest fog guidance shows a smattering of small areas where dense potential exists, but not widespread enough to warrant an advisory on their own merits.

Otherwise, still looking at dry conditions through the short term as mid/upper-level ridging builds over the region from nrn Mexico. With another good radiating night expected tonight, fog is likely to form...dense potential is certainly there, but will allow later shifts to better refine this threat.

Although afternoon temperatures are progged to remain fairly static, the warm muggies will return by early in the new work week as the sfc high slides ewd, allowing a return flow off the Gulf to re-develop, driving up dewpoints by several degrees by Tuesday. Accordingly, overnight lows will rebound to area-wide readings in the 70s by Tuesday morning.

25

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

By Wednesday high pressure will be along the Carolina coast while aloft a ridge will be centered over the western gulf near NE Mexico.
This will provide the local region with a humid onshore flow while suppressing chances for rainfall and keeping temperatures higher than climo norms for the date. Farther north a cold front will be across the plains and slowly moving southbound.

The upper ridge will sink south and east into Thursday as a short wave moves across the upper midwest. The aforementioned cold front may drift into North TX and Arkansas before stalling. With the front relatively near the vicinity, and the upper ridge weakening locally, a few showers and storms may be possible in the lakes region and across Cen LA, although not explicitly mentioned in the forecast.
The chances overall appear low at this time, just not 0.

Friday and into the weekend the upper ridge may nudge back into the area suppressing already low rain chances. Temperatures will continue to run above climo norms.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

VFR expected this afternoon and evening, with variable winds 5 kts at AEX, southeast at 6-8 kts at southern terminals. Fog potential a little less overnight, with most terminals possibly having intermittent MVFR visibilities between 09-13z Monday. Otherwise, southeast winds around 7-10 kts at all sites after 14z.

08/DML

MARINE
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No headlines are anticipated in the CWF until close to mid-week when the gradient tightens as lower pressures develop over the srn Plains and winds begin to strengthen in response.

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 90 71 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 91 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 91 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Sun -- 03:46 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM CDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:34 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:00 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:13 AM CDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM CDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:45 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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